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Back to the Old Days?

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    Back to the Old Days?

    1988 or 2002? I wonder which year we'll be closer to in 2019? Likely doesn't matter. Both were terrible in SK
    Click image for larger version

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    #2
    That's assuming everyone gets a harvestable crop. Lots wrote off in 88 and guys rattled over for feed.

    I would say any big crop is gone this week. Too much thin stands, unestablished, frozen, reseeded. The area of very dry seems bigger this yr. Dont remember it going so far north before. And I think the other wild card is an early fall frost.

    Comment


      #3
      This crop is ****ed....in 1988 850 million helped generation farms. ...what's the equivalent today 2 to 3 billion.....


      Now you can say a lot of farms are ****ed as well....

      No government in Canada is going to help western Canadian primary producers....

      Comment


        #4
        I could be wrong but I am thinking my niegbors wont need to pull out combine #6 at all this yr.

        Comment


          #5
          One week Goodale says more help might come "soon" through agri-recovery....

          The next week the provinces won't ask.....

          So while Moe and Kenney have a love fest in weyburn. ....here is a news flash ....oil wells can be drilled any day of the year in western Canada. ....

          Hey Scotty.....how about you wake the **** up??????

          Comment


            #6
            Judging from the charts , a 25 bu /ac durum crop in 2002 is a terrible crop? We sure didn't get one like that in 2002 down here in Maple Creek. More like a 12bu/acre average . Combine a crop like that , then tell me about drought!

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by GALAXIE500 View Post
              Judging from the charts , a 25 bu /ac durum crop in 2002 is a terrible crop? We sure didn't get one like that in 2002 down here in Maple Creek. More like a 12bu/acre average . Combine a crop like that , then tell me about drought!
              How about 3 bushel canary and 6 bushel canola due to wet? Or the two years of zero yield because no seed hit the soil? I too noticed those numbers, and found them wanting.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by bucket View Post
                The next week the provinces won't ask.....
                If we didn't have a hostile incompetent idiotic PM that we must take out this fall, I am sure the provinces would be more engaged but they cant give Trudeau any momentum at all. If he rides in as the saviour to western ag and gets in again, we are totally fkd. I will take a yr of drought before I take 4 more yrs of skippy.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Couple of things to keep in mind is that in 88 and 02 lots of crop was still on summer fallow in AB and SK so that skews the numbers. Also southern AB had a good crop in western regions in 02 because the drought there was in 2001. 2002 was likely the only year that southern AB crops yielded significantly higher than northern AB. Northern AB had an average crop in 88. South was dried out.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Is the party over?

                    How many of those reduced bushels are needed to pay 75-100 dollar an acre rent?

                    Anyone want to discuss the combined affect of fewer bushels with depressed commodity prices?

                    Land couldn't pay for itself before, now what?

                    Input prices(goods and services) have escalated in relation to "good times". Canola seed isn't as affordable in the brown and dry dark brown soil zones as in the moist dark brown and black(35-40 bpa versus 50-60 bpa). But drought doesn't distinguish soil zones and won't discriminate.

                    Hope we don't lose to many young producers if we get a sustained period of "tough times".

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Hope we don't lose to many young producers if we get a sustained period of "tough times".

                      As long as the dads keep stroking the cheques all will be fine.
                      Don’t forget these young fers will need a new jacked up truck by year end and a new 18k sled in the back.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        [QUOTE=bucket;413112]This crop is ****ed....in 1988 850 million helped generation farms. ...what's the equivalent today 2 to 3 billion.....


                        Now you can say a lot of farms are ****ed as well....

                        No government in Canada is going to help western Canadian primary producers....[/

                        Geezus dude, don’t sugar coat it. 🙂

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                          Hope we don't lose to many young producers if we get a sustained period of "tough times".

                          As long as the dads keep stroking the cheques all will be fine.
                          Don’t forget these young fers will need a new jacked up truck by year end and a new 18k sled in the back.
                          Hate to say it, but I know of zero young guys doing it on their own dime.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by bigzee View Post
                            Hope we don't lose to many young producers if we get a sustained period of "tough times".

                            As long as the dads keep stroking the cheques all will be fine.
                            Don’t forget these young fers will need a new jacked up truck by year end and a new 18k sled in the back.
                            Keep in mind a lot of younger farmers did well in the high priced years. Some guys have only ever had to manage profit. We are making our best effort for profit, I am sure some neighbours have done well and will survive to farm another year. Plus they will negotiate write downs with lenders. FCC cannot afford to shut everybody down, that would be disastrous. It will be as quiet as possible so land values do not tailspin, major lenders will be able to report only a “slow down” or “moderate” decline as expected with a drought. If my most productive neighbours throw in the towel, there is big trouble. They have been keeping our land rents and purchase prices strong. The last thing we need in this situation is a devaluation in the only real equity we have.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by hobbyfrmr View Post
                              Keep in mind a lot of younger farmers did well in the high priced years. Some guys have only ever had to manage profit. We are making our best effort for profit, I am sure some neighbours have done well and will survive to farm another year. Plus they will negotiate write downs with lenders. FCC cannot afford to shut everybody down, that would be disastrous. It will be as quiet as possible so land values do not tailspin, major lenders will be able to report only a “slow down” or “moderate” decline as expected with a drought. If my most productive neighbours throw in the towel, there is big trouble. They have been keeping our land rents and purchase prices strong. The last thing we need in this situation is a devaluation in the only real equity we have.
                              FCC is only going to push out the guys with equity.....some of the new BTOs have zero equity...and they are going to be left alone and they will let them ride.....

                              Equity sold is cash to make FCC look good. .....

                              We are heading to a world of tractor,sprayer and combine jockeys.....

                              Comment

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