Zeihan on Alberta

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

[Guest]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

well , unlike our esteemed virtuous , honest , leader , he sure won't be gone anytime soon .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

well , unlike our esteemed virtuous , honest , leader , he sure won't be gone anytime soon .

And I think these people who are fixated on (against) Trump have some delirious belief that once Trump is gone, the world order will go back to what it was before, and this is entirely the fault of Trump. While, I too would like that to be true, unfortunately, the reality appears to be much the opposite.

[grassfarmer]

It is really sad, We were having a civil discussion where I hadn't even mention any politician's name ,And it turns into a Trump bashing tirade From the radical left as usual. What will you do when he's gone, he has been an absolute gift.

Seemed appropriate enough in the circumstances to bring up Trump to trump some ridiculously trumped-up facts related to Alberta becoming part of the US.
Your spelling and capitalization in that post was awful by the way, you must be a socialist.

[Klause]

Zeihan always points out geography and resources as catalysts in politics. In that case, the west holds all the cards as well. Most of Canada is tundra, boreal forest, muskeg swamps, mountains and rocky out crops in the shield. Most of the populations live in old alluvial deltas in Vancouver and Toronto, Ottawa Montreal. The only expanse open for unrestricted development is the southern interior. And that is where all the resources are, mineral, energy, ag. We have an GDP bigger than more than 200 countries in the world. AB on its own it the worlds 5th largest energy producer. Any renewable dreams, panels and windmills will only work in southern Ab and Sk. We just need to secure a tiny sliver of ocean access and I would say Churchill is the place then grain can go out there too.

Actually, all we need to do is dredge about 1/4 of the Mackenzie. Access to the pacific... It was proposed during the depression and then shelved.

There's a northern river route from the Mackenzie to the Nelson, which goes into Hudson Bay.


Canada has huge potential just need the will and people to make it happen.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Seemed appropriate enough in the circumstances to bring up Trump to trump some ridiculously trumped-up facts related to Alberta becoming part of the US.
Your spelling and capitalization in that post was awful by the way, you must be a socialist.

Sorry, perhaps my phone is a socialist. Using speech to text while Working with cows, And every time it starts Over, it capitalizes the first word.

[jazz]

I would like to hear grass and dmls solution to the problem. Let me condense it for them. Right now Ab pays $6000 per person more than they receive in benefits. As Canada ages and becomes more dependent, that number will rise to more than $20,000 per person. These are Zeihans numbers. Does that sound fair to you guys? So just shut up and pay it while every province sucks AB dry all while blocking the resource and taxing the source with carbon tax? AB should just take it?

[sumdumguy]

I am not so sure that Zeihan is right about the provinces losing the case to Trudeau on the carbon tax. They have a provincial plan of their own and so a federal carbon tax is not required. JMHO

[grassfarmer]

Jazz, he's just someone offering an opinion. An American making far-out claims as a career. I note that the video was a 2014 production, so not a proposal to deal with anything created either by the Trudeau or Notley Governments. The payment figures he predicted for 6 years in the future - 2020 - how close are they to being correct? maybe you could provide a figure from last year to prove the veracity of his predictions?

The whole payments to Ottawa thing is largely bogus politicking anyway - here is a rational explanation of how the system really works and why it is fair.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-why-equalization-is-not-unfair-to-alberta/ http://https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-why-equalization-is-not-unfair-to-alberta/

[Hamloc]

Jazz, he's just someone offering an opinion. An American making far-out claims as a career. I note that the video was a 2014 production, so not a proposal to deal with anything created either by the Trudeau or Notley Governments. The payment figures he predicted for 6 years in the future - 2020 - how close are they to being correct? maybe you could provide a figure from last year to prove the veracity of his predictions?

The whole payments to Ottawa thing is largely bogus politicking anyway - here is a rational explanation of how the system really works and why it is fair.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-why-equalization-is-not-unfair-to-alberta/ http://https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-why-equalization-is-not-unfair-to-alberta/

Ok Grassfarmer in the article Trevor Tombe states that Alberta has sent $264 billion more to Ottawa since 2007 than it has recieved back in federal transfers. Apparently you consider this just fine. There is no doubt that Alberta's energy industry, that industry you so despise, is responsible for a large part of this. Now certainly it makes sense that that parts of the country that have greater wealth should help parts of the country not blessed with the same natural resources that create this wealth but you can't have your hand out accepting these revenues and at the same time doing everything to shut down further developement or restricting access to new markets. This is what politicians like Jason Kenney are pointing out! But we have many Canadians like you Grassfarmer who believe Alberta should continue to pay but at the same time are trying to slowly choke the energy industry to death! I think what amazes me the most is this belief that if Alberta's energy industry is shut down oil consumption in the world will decrease and by decreasing our 1.6% contribution to the world's GHG emissions that climate change will be stopped in its tracks. As my grade nine teacher once responded to a student that asked a silly question "I pity your intelligence". Enjoy your day.

[jazz]

AB is over contributed to CPP and still provides equalization money to Quebec at the same time who have their own PP. I guess provinces can administer their own programs so there is something Kenny can do to starve Ottawa. Its not just a provincial burden but its a burden on our young people because its a penalty on having more favorable demographics and a more ambitious population.

Surely Grass you don't believe in indebting our youngest people to support our oldest and least productive people. I am trying to believe you are a reasonable guy but its getting harder. Defending the status quo of confederation is going to take more than some egghead economists viewpoint. Because its unfair and its not sustainable especially when our resources are blocked. if tomorrow Ottawa started building pipe every where, I would change my mind, but that's not happening. They have also pulled this carbon tax scam at the same time which is just a hidden increase in the GST. Tax carbon, rebate to poor people and bank the $500M GST off gas and utility bills.

Please grass get educated before its too late.

https://www.summerlandreview.com/news/alberta-workers-pay-four-times-what-ontario-workers-pay-to-cpp-study/ Alberta workers pay four times what Ontario workers pay to CPP: study

[grassfarmer]

Folks, it's largely demographics. Alberta has been paying more, because it's been earning more as it's had a younger population with more of working age due to it's resources. The same thing is likely happening on a smaller scale within provinces - areas of high production subsidizing areas with a high proportion of retired or lower income people. The fact is we are a country made up of different regions so that's how it works.
Zeihan's predictions are based on the idea that the oil and gas sector will continue much as it has been and that may not be the case. Maybe as Springsteen sang "these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back"? if the world moves substantially more to renewable resources as seems likely by current moves. Looking at the bigger, longer term picture the Alberta oil boom may just have been a hundred year period of prosperity like a gold rush. If that is the case the demographics would change again over time as the population would revert to aging like the rest of Canada and being less productive on a financial basis.

[jazz]

Folks, it's largely demographics.

That doesn't hold water either. We have mass immigration into this country mostly into Quebec and Ontario and we are told that we need these young people to pay the bills. So are we getting that or more low skill low wage potentially dependent people into a generous provincial social system in Eastern Canada that one province holds up with their transfers.

The equalization system is discriminatory. Alberta is subsidizing everything. Old people, non productive people, new people, environmentalists, natives, socialists, etc.

[dmlfarmer]

Please JAZZ get educated before its too late.

Alberta workers pay four times what Ontario workers pay to CPP: study

I cannot believe Jazz you even are making this claim. The CPP contribution rate is the SAME across Canada (except Quebec which does not participate). Yes, Alberta workers may pay more in total dollars if they are earning more, but they also eligible for higher benefits than someone who has not maxed their CPP contributions. If a province has more employed workers, at higher wages, and less retired people, as a province, the funds flowing into CPP will be higher than province where there is lower employment, lower wages, and more retirees. It is not some conspiracy against Alberta.

Second, you claim to care about young people being indebted, so why would you even consider Alberta becoming a part of the US which has a federal debt of 22 trillion and is adding to the debt at a rate of a trillion a year now, a per capita rate much higher than Canada?

You rave about equalization payments, and confuse the issue with claims of the amount Alberta pays vs receives. Yet equalization comes out of federal general revenues. Alberta does not write a cheque to make an equalization payment. Is the formula right - not in my opinion but remember the last time the formula was changed was in the Conservative government when Kenney was an MP. And you ignore the fact that social program funding was also changed at that time and federal transfers to Alberta to Alberta have increased 83% since 2007, a rate higher than any other province.

A final question for you. We live in a time of business consolidation. That happens because as an entity grows larger, they gain power. As well duplicate costs can be eliminated. In the corporate world, we see amalgations and buyouts daily. Why do you call for the opposite to happen on a state basis? Why do you think a smaller entity would ever have more trading power, or lower costs, than a larger region?

Some simple reading material for you to get educated http://www.formac.ca/starrspoint/2018/12/18/the-equalization-history-that-jason-kenney-likes-to-forget/ http://www.formac.ca/starrspoint/2018/12/18/the-equalization-history-that-jason-kenney-likes-to-forget/

[chuckChuck]

Grass is correct. Per capita GDP and salaries are higher in Alberta largely because of the resource sector.

Albertans pay a lot of federal taxes because their incomes are higher and they are still higher. But they pay the same federal tax in Ontario, Quebec or anywhere else based on the same income.

Alberta is suffering because of lower oil prices. Access to markets other than the USA is limited because for decades most of their oil was shipped to the USA. The USA is now the largest oil producer in the world.

The incredible boom that occurred because of high prices was not sustainable. Peter Lougheed and others wanted measured growth not an out of control boom where inflation drives up the cost of everything including the cost of producing oil.

Norway intentionally invested a lot their oil fund outside of Norway to reduce the inflationary effect of the oil boom. I recognize Alberta is not Norway in many ways. Perhaps Alaska is a better example of how to manage excess resource revenues. Alaska has saved $60 billion in a state fund for rainy days. https://apfc.org/. Every Alaskan gets a dividend cheque.

People need sustainable jobs in many diverse industries. But relying on one or two commodities that go up and down in price frequently leads to boom and bust cycles. Alberta needs to look to the future and plan for low carbon jobs.

Oil will still be part of the plan but it is foolhardy to assume oil will be as important in 2050 or 2100 as it is now.