Baltic Dry Ocean Freight

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Baltic Dry Ocean Freight

Feb 6, 2019 | 21:36 1 Baltic Dry Index has fallen off-a-cliff since the new year. This is a bulk freight ocean rate indicator for moving bulk items like iron ore, coal and grains.

This is a key global economic indicator (IMO) as important as watching the LIBOR bank rate in London.
This ocean freight fallout is likely due to the economic slowdown in China. Reply With Quote
Feb 6, 2019 | 22:19 2
Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
Baltic Dry Index has fallen off-a-cliff since the new year. This is a bulk freight ocean rate indicator for moving bulk items like iron ore, coal and grains.

This is a key global economic indicator (IMO) as important as watching the LIBOR bank rate in London.
This ocean freight fallout is likely due to the economic slowdown in China.
2008 has a long tail, and imo we are still seeing the reaction to sky high everything. Simply not done deflating. Im preparing for sub '09 low futures. Definite retest coming. What happens at those lows on a monthly basis determines whether it's a bounce or a total washout back to 2006 prices. Nervously watching next Brexit vote week of the 11th. Reply With Quote
Feb 6, 2019 | 22:37 3
Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
Baltic Dry Index has fallen off-a-cliff since the new year. This is a bulk freight ocean rate indicator for moving bulk items like iron ore, coal and grains.

This is a key global economic indicator (IMO) as important as watching the LIBOR bank rate in London.
This ocean freight fallout is likely due to the economic slowdown in China.
Which is why China will cave in to any US demands regarding the trade war. Whether that occurs before taking the rest of the worlds economy down with them, is yet to be seen. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    ajl

  • Feb 6, 2019 | 22:47 4
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    2008 has a long tail, and imo we are still seeing the reaction to sky high everything. Simply not done deflating. Im preparing for sub '09 low futures. Definite retest coming. What happens at those lows on a monthly basis determines whether it's a bounce or a total washout back to 2006 prices. Nervously watching next Brexit vote week of the 11th.
    Deflation of real estate, pot and bank stocks. Deflation of commodities I wouldn't bet on it. Commodities are already in the tank.
    Last edited by biglentil; Feb 6, 2019 at 22:51.
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    Feb 6, 2019 | 23:33 5
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Deflation of real estate, pot and bank stocks. Deflation of commodities I wouldn't bet on it. Commodities are already in the tank.
    There's too many people and articles that are looking for an inflation trade. It won't happen in this atmosphere. The majority is always wrong. Until the idea that commodities can go up, is kicked to the curb and forced to eat concrete with a boot to the head, it won't be possible for much more then sneaking outside last year's range.
    Last edited by macdon02; Feb 6, 2019 at 23:42.
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    Feb 7, 2019 | 04:50 6
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Baltic Dry Index has fallen off-a-cliff since the new year. This is a bulk freight ocean rate indicator for moving bulk items like iron ore, coal and grains.

    This is a key global economic indicator (IMO) as important as watching the LIBOR bank rate in London.
    This ocean freight fallout is likely due to the economic slowdown in China.
    Is all those ships of oil sailing in circles or not sailing at all out of venezuala part
    Of the figure or is that no significant enough Errol? Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 05:45 7
    Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
    Is all those ships of oil sailing in circles or not sailing at all out of venezuala part
    Of the figure or is that no significant enough Errol?
    big wheel, being in the ocean freight business is brutal. These ships are running ocean routes at heavy losses just to protect their route market share. Container prices have plunged in-half over the past month. Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 07:44 8
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    big wheel, being in the ocean freight business is brutal. These ships are running ocean routes at heavy losses just to protect their route market share. Container prices have plunged in-half over the past month.
    The BDI might be going down but on the positive side it makes Canadian exports competitive ....there is the positive that I see and the FSU may be running low on exports that compete with us....

    We might be the market last on the list but when the market comes here ..it should be at a premium?????? Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 09:48 9
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    The BDI might be going down but on the positive side it makes Canadian exports competitive ....there is the positive that I see and the FSU may be running low on exports that compete with us....

    We might be the market last on the list but when the market comes here ..it should be at a premium??????
    Ocean freight is all relative . . . all global commodities and countries are impacted, not just Canada. Demand is king in the commodity world. And falling ocean freight is a reflection of falling demand and weakening commodity prices (IMO). This contributes to current deflationary pressures . . . . Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 09:54 10
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Ocean freight is all relative . . . all global commodities and countries are impacted, not just Canada. Demand is king in the commodity world. And falling ocean freight is a reflection of falling demand and weakening commodity prices (IMO). This contributes to current deflationary pressures . . . .
    But where is deflation occurring? Not here or is it measured by other things than what we are buying? Prices in the states have risen dramatically for goods individual debt has also risen not to get ahead but to keep the same consumption are prices going down in other countries? Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 10:18 11 Are companies that sell good s to us getting those goods cheaper on the world scene and not passing that on To us ? Reply With Quote
    Feb 7, 2019 | 10:21 12
    Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
    But where is deflation occurring? Not here or is it measured by other things than what we are buying? Prices in the states have risen dramatically for goods individual debt has also risen not to get ahead but to keep the same consumption are prices going down in other countries?
    It's like big foot or UFO's many claim it exists. However the masses never see their cost of living go down. Be afraid, be very afraid of the deflationary boogeyman.

    Money supply is now 4 times higher than 2008 and so is debt. That's the true definition of inflation. Usd is rapidly losing reserve status, arms race is underway. Fed QT failed, Baltic index is signaling more QE and more negative rates. Focus on the macro picture, I'm bullish commodities, and bearish USD.
    Last edited by biglentil; Feb 7, 2019 at 10:35.
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    Mar 6, 2019 | 10:33 13 Major fallout in China to U.S. west coast ocean freight rates into March. 40' shipping container rates have now plunged 40% since early December.

    U.S. / China slowdown continues to chisel away at the Baltic Dry index ocean rates. Containers now being shipped at stiff losses just to maintain ocean route market share. Reply With Quote
    ajl
    Mar 6, 2019 | 12:29 14
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    It's like big foot or UFO's many claim it exists. However the masses never see their cost of living go down. Be afraid, be very afraid of the deflationary boogeyman.

    Money supply is now 4 times higher than 2008 and so is debt. That's the true definition of inflation. Usd is rapidly losing reserve status, arms race is underway. Fed QT failed, Baltic index is signaling more QE and more negative rates. Focus on the macro picture, I'm bullish commodities, and bearish USD.
    Farmers tend to be inflationists so they will not recognize deflation if it ran over them. That is why the 80's were such a crisis. Everybody missed the transition from in to deflation and were not prepared. I sold #3 wheat in Jan for 7.04 and now the same product is worth 6.65. That is some deflation. Commodity prices are where you find it. Everything you sell is worth less today than it was last summer. Even pump gas is 0.96 today vs 1.30 last summer. If you extend the time frame, you will see deflation. Some cost of living item have decreased, however tax increases have made up for that, but to a producer tax increases are deflationary. Reply With Quote