Wheat Comment

[malleefarmer]

From a farming friend who also comments on markets and is well respected.

Wheat stocks outside of China peaked at 148.238 mill t in 2009/10.
We now grow 46.174 mill t more per annum but stocks have plunged to 122.84 mill t.
There is no security in the global wheat balance sheet. One day the wheat market will wake up.

Peter the wheat market is a sleeper maybe not 19 but its not all doom and gloom.

Personally not sure wheat market seems to run hand to mouth last 3 or 4 years and doesnt seem to worry about big picture. Corn is king followed by beans then wheat my 2 cents worth

[westernvicki]

10$ wheat promised in the 70s, grew old waiting for it.

But really any lack of rally is perplexing; cheaper stock, lots of coming soon wait til August scenario, is this the new mentality? If so growing season weather could be interesting, but we thought that before.



Take a position or have a glass of wine. Tough choices.

[farming101]

Take a position or have a glass of wine. Tough choices.

I'll try both

Chicago wheat could see a bit of strength in the next while chart-wise. Steady or higher till around Feb 12 would be positive and would allow some better support levels to surface. Not looking for fireworks and if we go higher before Feb 12 looking for 5.35 Mar to cap it. Baby steps

MGEX is weaker but will follow along
Basis has been solid for 11 weeks running.

[malleefarmer]

Market seems to operate more hand to mouth and seemingly demand driven rather than supply. Guess it just means volatilty. One could argue the world has ignored australias production issues in 18/19


Replying to @BlacketPeter
Hand to mouth will exacerbate the rally when stocks tighten too much just like we saw in 2007/08. Australia is pretty much irrelevant these days. Our drop in prodn was only a small part of the total fall & as an exporter we are now way down the ladder

agree. argie set to become a bigger player in wheat market in my opinion. See US wheat acres set rise a little.