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Jan 9, 2019 | 13:37 1 Where do you think these $400000.00 investments will be in 20 years?

!) 3 - 5 Quarters of pasture land with water.

2) 1 Quarter of good cultivated farm land.

3) House in a city.

Everything is cyclical, grain and city real estate probably peaked, cattle maybe still has some upside but 20 years is a long time, long enough for things to crash and burn and start it's way up again. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 9, 2019 | 18:03 2 The pasture might be a deal especially if gravel is found.

House or good quarter probably similar.

You didn’t use unrealistic p4ices.

$535,000.00 land in sask good quality.

$895,000.00 home in Regina.

$400,000.00 for 4 quarters pasture.

Or Alberta prices adjust or Manitoba price.

Then we can talk.

I feel the drop coming might be your numbers. Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 9, 2019 | 22:41 3 In $USD, all down from current levels. In loons, it will depend on where the loon is. A 35 cent loon could have them all higher. Without inflation, Canuckistan will not live long so the B of C governor is cranking the presses up again. The B of C does ongoing quantitative easing as it holds government of Canada securities as it primary asset. It may be that debt is now so high in this country, that further money printing will prove to be ineffective, and we could see the price of these assets fall in loonie terms also. Pretty hard to imagine farmland higher with all the new production competition coming from pretty much everywhere on line. (Russia, Ukraine, South America, the US and land clearing right here at home) That, not interest rates, was the big story in the eighties. Production and export subsidies, mostly on growing production in Europe was the big story then. Reply With Quote
GDR
Jan 9, 2019 | 22:58 4 My bets on the pasture. Area is gonna be more important than quality of property in the future. More people, more industry, more of everything all takes space. The house is just gonna be an old house in 20yrs and farmland I believe we will be growing more on less ground and other non conventional ag will take market share anyhow so relative value wont increase as much.



Fyi in central AB good farmland vs crappy pasture is already the same price, all about space not productivity. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 00:05 5 In 20 years my bet is on Moose Pasture, there will be lots of Europeans trying to escape UN Agenda 21


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=govL-fUAwMA Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 07:23 6 I for one also agree on the pasture at those prices is a deal, at Alberta prices, not a chance.

Here you might luck out like two friends buy cheap and get the backhoe out and boom find huge gravel deposit and paid for it and the new house in town or a whole section of land.

Gravel is gold look and you might be surprised.

House is a house but funny unless its Detroit or Chicago in the hood it's still worth lots. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 07:54 7
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
I
House is a house but funny unless its Detroit or Chicago in the hood it's still worth lots.
Not the ridiculous $895,000 you quoted though. Latest values I saw for Regina houses from August 2018 were less than half of that. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 08:04 8 That’s a new home nice area Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 08:15 9 There are $800k spec home sitting empty here. No way those valuations hold with the province loosing people and the resources in the toilet.

4 quarters of pasture is an interesting resource. Lot of flexibility with that. Unless its in the total boondocks probably holds value.

Good quality farmland, well as long and the psyco BTOs are swirling, it increases for a while.

But consider Canada headwinds, demographics, socialism and competition in the world rising now. We did just what Apple did in china, pioneered production improvements only to have to compete with them now. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 08:36 10 .....you only quarry out the gravel off the land ONCE!....THEN YOU'RE LEFT WITH PART OF AN UGLY USELESS MOONSCAPE FOREVER.

We live in an area where it us getting more common for poor land to have equal residential value as agricultural value....given its close to utilities and good year round access roads.

Psycho BTOs....lol!
Last edited by farmaholic; Jan 10, 2019 at 08:50.
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Jan 10, 2019 | 08:54 11 Pasture is 120K / quarter.
Not sure of the economics of that once all costs to maintain the herd are in. Then factor in a dry year Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 09:27 12
Quote Originally Posted by rumrocks View Post
Where do you think these $400000.00 investments will be in 20 years?

!) 3 - 5 Quarters of pasture land with water.

2) 1 Quarter of good cultivated farm land.

3) House in a city.

Everything is cyclical, grain and city real estate probably peaked, cattle maybe still has some upside but 20 years is a long time, long enough for things to crash and burn and start it's way up again.
In my area not sure you could find 1 pasture quarter for that price. If the enviros have their way the only thing on that pasture in 20 years will be deer and moose. Cultivated land was that price maybe 5 years ago, closer to $700000 now. Will farming be all big corps with robots doing the work in 20 years? I will bet on the house in the city because at $700000 a quarter doesn't come close to working and will be that much worse at a $million! Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 09:36 13 Consider the high possibility that Canada turns into a socialist whackdoo state. That would likely eventually lead to a tax on beef or something. That will kill the ranching sector and you will get your burgers from Australia.

So a farmer with pasture with either abandon it or break it and start growing crops again. Imagine the carbon release from millions of newly broke land. Carbon tax would have to rise again.

The feed sector will be dead so its human consumption crops. That might sound good for a grain farmer but a bunch more landlocked supply here in Canada will make it harder for us. Commodities would be heading down I imagine especially with Russia, China and Argentina ramping up.

Like I said before, we could be the oil patch 5 yrs from now.

Socialism is creeping everywhere even the US. Only guy in the path of the globalists is Trump. If he gets taken out, we are done. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 09:41 14 In Europe, the socialist state has put so many regulations on ag that many farmers lent their land for green projects (solar, wind, biomass) collect a check from that and then run a little land for their own sustenance. Europe cant export anything with those kids of costs added on.

Europes only export is BMW and Benz and Volvo cars. WTF else to they produce. Ever see anything made in Britain or France. And they even have massive sea access. How can Canadian landlocked ag survive that model.

Only way is to join the states. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 10:10 15 Overall, I think it was the influx of lots of new money that pushed Sask's land prices to where they are now in the last 10 year span. Definitely not demand from people looking for a place to live. I can't see rural populations ever recovering to pre-exodus levels.....other than in the 50 km "halo" around the cities. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 10:21 16 A local realtor told me that investors are exiting this asset class because the returns haven't met their expectations. These guys were apparently hoping for $150/ac rents and the land doubling every yr.

So its just aging farmers and BTO in there now. Maybe some land around urban populations might have some longer term value. If I had land 100 miles from any major center that has tripled in price I would be worried. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 10:54 17 Jazz, Where would you put sask to get ocean access ?? Park it betreew oregon and calafornia,or mabey oregon washington,mabey slide in on the south side of BC ?? Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 10:58 18
Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
Jazz, Where would you put sask to get ocean access ?? Park it betreew oregon and calafornia,or mabey oregon washington,mabey slide in on the south side of BC ??
Rail through ND to the Mississippi, barge to gulf. Second rail to deep port at Churchill. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 11:01 19 Those options are all there without (JOING THE USofA) Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 11:54 20
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
A local realtor told me that investors are exiting this asset class because the returns haven't met their expectations. These guys were apparently hoping for $150/ac rents and the land doubling every yr.
Really?!?! How niave of me to think it could go on forever.

What approach are real estate agents going to use to sell it now? Back to " they're not making anymore". Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 12:40 21
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Really?!?! How niave of me to think it could go on forever.

What approach are real estate agents going to use to sell it now? Back to " they're not making anymore".
They are talking up the 100 bu canola yields coming. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 12:50 22
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
In Europe, the socialist state has put so many regulations on ag that many farmers lent their land for green projects (solar, wind, biomass) collect a check from that and then run a little land for their own sustenance. Europe cant export anything with those kids of costs added on.

Europes only export is BMW and Benz and Volvo cars. WTF else to they produce. Ever see anything made in Britain or France. And they even have massive sea access. How can Canadian landlocked ag survive that model.

Only way is to join the states.

Thankfully Canada as a country has more sense. I can see how those of you with a penchant for made up facts and ignorance of affairs outside our borders would be tempted though.

As a grain farmer in Canada you don't realize France grows more wheat than us? About 30% more the last time I checked.
What does Britain produce? quite a lot actually even in agricultural terms - hell, even Scotland has more sheep than Canada and the US combined.
I don't suppose you realize either that tiny little Scotland has more than twice the oil/gas production that Saskatchewan has (expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent - so don't even play the "we don't get full value for ours card") Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 12:57 23
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
Thankfully Canada as a country has more sense. I can see how those of you with a penchant for made up facts and ignorance of affairs outside our borders would be tempted though.

As a grain farmer in Canada you don't realize France grows more wheat than us? About 30% more the last time I checked.
What does Britain produce? quite a lot actually even in agricultural terms - hell, even Scotland has more sheep than Canada and the US combined.
I don't suppose you realize either that tiny little Scotland has more than twice the oil/gas production that Saskatchewan has (expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent - so don't even play the "we don't get full value for ours card")
Wow, why would anyone want to leave that? Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 13:03 24
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
That’s a new home nice area
Guess there can't be many of them in Regina then? A great chance to toot your horn and tell us you've got one though! Checking with Real Estate Regina there are only 4 houses listed between $850,000 - $900,000 and another between $900,000 and a $million. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 13:08 25 Do I look at this wrong? I don't have $400,000 sitting around to invest, so whatever I invest in needs to cashflow, or have the potential to do so going forward, and that is priority #1. anticipated appreciation in 20 years won't help make payments in the interim, especially if values drop in the mean time before appreciating in 20 years time.

So instead of concerning myself with appreciation, I look at what will be most likely to pay for itself. I don't know much about productivity in your area ( dry, I believe from a previous thread?) , so I probably overestimate pasture potential, but if I could buy 3 to 5 pasture quarters for the same price as 1 quarter of crop land or one house, the pasture would be the no brainer for cashflow. It requires virtually no inputs, upgrades or maintenance to maintain its value, the house will require the most. A tenant can quickly ruin the value of the home, same with lack of maintenance. The house will have bills to pay(large taxes, heat, power, roof/siding/appliance wear and depreciation, style becoming outdated needing renovations, etc.) whether it is occupied and making money or not. The pasture could sit idle and only cost a few dollars in taxes.

As for the crop land, around here in big swamp country, 5 quarters of pasture land will produce at least 5 times as much biomass as 1 quarter of crop land, but maybe not as flexible in potential uses year in and year out, Making the payback on the pasture much faster in theory. I expect it is opposite in your area, or values wouldn't be so far apart. So my input into that argument is likely worth what you paid for it.

Otherwise, a rising tide lifts all boats in the macro economic picture. In more normal times, the annual ROI can quickly swamp the appreciation:

If one investment can give a 3% annual ROI, and the other a 5%, the difference (compounded, assuming it goes back into more land) is $322,000 vs. $661,000 over 20 years. If you can make 10% ROI over 20 years, it is almost 6 times the initial investment. I am calling the last few years of exponential appreciation not normal times, but perhaps I am wrong... Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 10, 2019 | 13:54 26 AF5, Like. Common sense. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 14:13 27
Quote Originally Posted by sk_wheatking View Post
Wow, why would anyone want to leave that?
Sounds like a dream doesn’t it, he should go back to the motherland and live in bliss and leave the rest of us to grumble about our meagre sheep flocks. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 14:42 28 I meant produce, manufacture and export. Europe is a net oil importer as well as uses most of its grain production and livestock products. Maybe wine and cheese.

Give me a consumer item that's not benz, Mercedes or volvo that's on the shelves here. Nokia is dead. Maybe ikea.

Basically all of Europes production is consumed in the common currency zone because no other country in the world can afford it after all the costs have been passed on. Except for the luxury cars.

Only niche products.


Now take a look at what Canada exports, basically everything. if we let socialism take root here we are done. Nobody will buy anything from us. We will have to rely on our biggest export - people.
Last edited by jazz; Jan 10, 2019 at 14:47.
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Jan 10, 2019 | 15:19 29 This figure is possibly a year old and has since declined.

The average price of a house in Australia has risen to $656,800 of course it could well be skewed and talking capital cities. This was basically at the peak in 2016.

2018 decline has been around i think 5 to 8%

Sydney supposedly has 2nd or 3rd highest in the world almost 1 mill.

The origanla question was whats 400k worth in 20 yrs sask said 800 and something not current values.

The pundits seem to think housing could fall another 10 to 15% over next 2 to 3 years scary stuff.

New home approvals and apartment complexes approvals way down in in 2018 all figures coming out now.

Farm land has platued it seems for the moment anyway and yeah its blue ribbon grazing pasture proerties leading the way Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2019 | 15:33 30
Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
I meant produce, manufacture and export. Europe is a net oil importer as well as uses most of its grain production and livestock products. Maybe wine and cheese.

Basically all of Europes production is consumed in the common currency zone because no other country in the world can afford it after all the costs have been passed on. Except for the luxury cars.

Only niche products.

Now take a look at what Canada exports, basically everything. if we let socialism take root here we are done. Nobody will buy anything from us. We will have to rely on our biggest export - people.
It's a totally false narrative you're trying to spin based on false facts. Quit being McCarthy and looking under every bed and step into the real world. French wheat is struggling not because it's too expensive but because the quality isn't high enough for some of it's traditional customers in Africa.

Europe like the US is a huge market and they don't really need to export a lot. It's nothing to do with whether socialism takes root here - Canadian producers will suffer, as they have always done, for being an exporting nation with a low domestic population. Reply With Quote