Limiting production

[Hopalong]

Keep seeing comments on Agriville that if growers would just limit or reduce production we would all get higher prices and be better off.
Makes me think back to days when our wheat board tried to do just that.
Delivery quotas were in place that encouraged us to store wheat, sell off board or switch land away from wheat.
There were times when delivery quota was worth as much or more than what wheat was sold for off board.
Just a warning to be careful what we ask for.

[farmaholic]

Is any of Mallee's $10.00 wheat reaching the world market? Or is that only domestic Oz prices? I doubt limiting production would increase the prices we receive, not domestically because we have more than we will ever need anyway.

I really don't think there is a huge glut of wheat. And I will go on like a broken record stating look at what Mallee is getting paid. Also what Canadian port asking prices are....the problem is we, as Producers, aren't capturing enough of the world price of wheat.

I still say it should be much closer to $8 for #1 CWRS 13.5 PX.


Limiting production in crops that Canada dominates might have a positive effect...until substitution by Buyers is necessary.

There are market "signals", but there can also be a year's lag and only people who have the product get to enjoy the year of short supply, maybe two years, until everyone else ramps up production to chase the falling star...recent example, red lentils.

[bucket]

The open market designed by Yerry Ritz and the morons at the WCWGA is a fallacy....I will explain the significance of that insult it a bit....just remember the word "mandatory"


If it was designed similar to the US system the farmers for themselves went there for... we would have the following...

1. Vessel reports with a basic reporting of what is going on each boat...

2. Sales reports daily and weekly... where for the year with a 2 cent calculator a guy could keep track and compare to statscan,....

3. Railways would be held accountable ...they shit bricks if asked/told to appear in front of the STB...

4. Target pricing would be a thing of the past ...we ...NO..the graincos would have to use the market to buy grain not a stack of targets that can get picked up because they adjusted their basis from minus 3 dollars ...

5. There would be better reporting on pulse crops....doesnt anyone find it amazing that KAtib can find 400 million to go private when AGT hasn't turned a profit on 11 billion in sales????? there is no oversight in that market...****ing red lentils have move from 15 cent to 19.5 which is 2.70 dollars a bushel and it doesn't make news...if wheat moved 30 cents it would be front page WP.

6.Storage would quit being built at the farm gate to hold 2 years worth of crops...


7. A real farm program that would reflect the US program where even if you grew 75 BPA and the price dropped below a certain level there would be a payment or if the buffoon we call a prime minister ****s up our market like he has there would be a trade distortion payment...India, China and Saudi Arabia are all examples of that moron's involvement ...

8. Basis would be reported properly....


Now do you guys understand what was missed while the WCWGA wanted to get away from a "mandatory " system....here is the hypocrisy ...the same guys want a "mandatory" seed tax for their sponsors....less than a 1000 guys are going to dictate the future of the rest of Canada's farmers...

Their first effort at Bidding for their sponsors was a poor outcome....see above ...

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me...

If the truth about starvation in this world is true we are already limiting production because our bins should be empty at these prices or so the story has went for decades and generations....its actually the way young guys get "hooked" on farming ...being told they are noble individuals by feeding the world ...

The fallacy is none wants to "feed the world"...not even the types that helped write the song.....

its as bad as young people believing in Santa Clause....

Farming is just another example of wealth distribution and this seed tax proves it...

Wrap it up with a bow?????

Transparency leads to accountability....

There is no transparency in the Canadian market and before they implement the "mandatory" seed tax maybe they ought to work on transparency in the seed development market and the market as a whole first.

Although I don't think any of the masters want the wealth distribution exposed....

CGC ...130 million
WGRF...200 million.
Various grants to Graincos, railway, graincos that now own Railways....priceless.( But its a lot )

Farmers money that we are not getting back...

regards
the dumb****led farmer......tm

[grassfarmer]

.......Also what Canadian port asking prices are....the problem is we, as Producers, aren't capturing enough of the world price of wheat......

Bingo! - same for beef producers. Not suggesting it for other commodities but that's why SM works for dairy, chicken and eggs - the producer IS able to capture enough of the retail dollar. We need to figure out how to produce the same result for other commodities. It should be in the mission statement of all producer commodity organizations.

[bucket]

Bingo! - same for beef producers. Not suggesting it for other commodities but that's why SM works for dairy, chicken and eggs - the producer IS able to capture enough of the retail dollar. We need to figure out how to produce the same result for other commodities. It should be in the mission statement of all producer commodity organizations.

BUT BUT BUT ...they all say they represent farmers...isnt that good enough grass farmer????

disclaimer: that was a sarcastic question...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Bingo! - same for beef producers. Not suggesting it for other commodities but that's why SM works for dairy, chicken and eggs - the producer IS able to capture enough of the retail dollar. We need to figure out how to produce the same result for other commodities. It should be in the mission statement of all producer commodity organizations.

If we are content to just produce enough grain and livestock to meet the domestic market, as dairy, chicken and egg do, SM would work fine. However we would be priced out of all export markets and because most of our production is exported, most of us will need to find a new line of work. Or we would need two-tier pricing.

[jazz]

Canada is dominant in pulses, canola and durum. Restricting those crops would have an immediate effect on pricing.

But not HRSW. The entire world makes that. Our supply is a blip.


And I have argued before, on a pure risk basis it would be a benefit as well. I am sure there are BTOs around me chasing $50 per acre profits over thousands of acres. That is the high volume, low price, thin margin high flameout type ag we should avoid.

If any farmer just grew a single crop where they made 400 or 500 dollars per acre one year they would abandon all this thin margin shit and reboot their operation I bet. But we are so wed to no till continuous cropping endless inputs.

[farmaholic]

Jazz-man.

In my opinion there is a difference between world production and world trade/exportable supplies. There are some huge producing nations that still need to import, or want to(believe it or not the U.S. is an important Canadian wheat customer).

The Statistician(farming 101) is digging his toes in the sand so I can't ask him what percentage of world wheat production is traded.

[bucket]

Jazz-man.

In my opinion there is a difference between world production and world trade/exportable supplies. There are some huge producing nations that still need to import, or want to(believe it or not the U.S. is an important Canadian wheat customer).

The Statistician(farming 101) is digging his toes in the sand so I can't ask him what percentage of world wheat production is traded.

Tradeable wheat is from lets say 5 major producers....US, Australia, FSU, Canada, Europe

Of the estimated 700mmt of wheat production maybe 100 mmt is in trade hands...thats a guess...

But a very good point not to be ignored...and more important is high quality wheat that competes against Russian prices...is still not oversupplied....which is why mallee is seeing those prices you talk about..

[jazz]

Then there is something drastically wrong with our trade when we have endure a harvest drop in prices then sit on the production over winter when we have product the world apparently needs. Maybe we have oversold the security of supply. Don't worry we can always get Canadian product last minute. Why even store it, the Canadian farmers are doing it for us.

if we are the supplier of last resort and we need to store this for 9 months, that should be a getting more than a little tick in the market price. Should be a premium for this supply.

[bucket]

Then there is something drastically wrong with our trade when we have endure a harvest drop in prices then sit on the production over winter when we have product the world apparently needs. Maybe we have oversold the security of supply. Don't worry we can always get Canadian product last minute. Why even store it, the Canadian farmers are doing it for us.

if we are the supplier of last resort and we need to store this for 9 months, that should be a getting more than a little tick in the market price. Should be a premium for this supply.

Why do you think there is close to 3mmt of vessel waiting to take on Canadian grain at the west coast?

Keeping the system plugged like the graincos do.... limits price as does target pricing months out....

Their schedule is always full to the point where they can delay delivery just long enough to keep the peasants in check.....and Quorum saying everything is fine....

[fjlip]

Wow! All true but only gloom and doom with NO solution in sight. Getting farmers to agree is WORSE than herding those proverbial CATS! We are so insignificant, just as been said peasants pawns low value high volume primary producers that feed the sysem. Oh ya been that way for MY 50 years farming!

[SASKFARMER3]

Back in the Ken goudy days they tried shit like this.

I agree for every two farmers cutting back some prick would think I’ll seed wall to wall and make money.

It’s like herding cats your correct

[furrowtickler]

https://i.makeagif.com/media/5-25-2015/LgrQU_.gif

[Braveheart]

If you had a store that had hardly any inventory to sell, you'd soon be out of business. Consumers would soon shop elsewhere. In today's world throttling back production to increase prices would never work. End users can find substitutes to switch to.

It would work the opposite of what your intent is on your own farm as well. If you grow less, but have the same machinery and land investment costs, then, the cost of every bushel you produce is higher so you actually need a much higher price per bushel to cover those costs..