Which weather forecasts have been most accurate this summer?

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Which weather forecasts have been most accurate this summer?

Aug 9, 2018 | 00:07 1 As I entered the faint hope stage of this exceedingly dry crop year, I started checking every weather source I could find trying to find one which would promise me something wet falling from the sky.
-Environment Canada was most generous in their precipitation probabilities and quantities(when provided) and by far the most disappointing every single time. They had full blown rain forecast many times, which never materialized, at least not here.
-Weather Networks was much more realistic in their probabilities, but still overshot the quantities every time.
-yr.no was absolutely depressing to look at. They contradicted Enviro Canada's optimism every time. Nothing but 0mm's or fractions of an mm all summer, and they were deadly accurate.
-Accuweather often had substantial accumulations so far off in the forecast that it was laughable, but on shorter time frames, they weren't much worse than Weather Network.
-Drew Lerner was almost as depressing as yr.no, and never overpromised by much, or with much certainty, but did regularly state that closer to the rocky's would have higher probabilities or accumulations, which was never the case here.

Now, yr.no has us receiving 3 inches of rain this weekend, while the the other forecasts have chances of showers, will see how well their track record holds up. It would be ironic to finally get the million dollar rain a day after 38 degrees destroys any chance of it doing any good. Although the pastures and hay would be extremely grateful.

Which service has been most accurate elsewhere, what else am I missing? How did the pig spleen prognostication turn out? Has anyone's Rheumatism been accurate this year?

This is an unusual problem to have around here, normally we are cursing mother nature to stop drowning the crops and washing the hay. This year, my rainy day projects have been on hold all spring and summer. Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 00:34 2 Oh and by the way, this drought is entirely my fault. After farming in the swamp my entire career, I finally got a chance to farm some drown proof ground close by starting last year. Rich black topsoil on top of gravel, almost foolproof, on years when we are drowned out even on our hilltops, this flat land would be a garden of Eden. I've been driving by and admiring it for years. So shortly after we seeded the first crop there last year, it essentially quit raining, and hasn't rained since. Now I know exactly where every gravel seam is, and have a whole new appreciation for subsoil.

Made even more ironic since my Dad and Grandpa used to tell me about the time(s) when it was so dry that crops on the "flat" were complete failures, but theirs on our heavy land were excellent. Seemed hard to believe after so many years of perpetual rain, but they were right. Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it... Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 05:56 3 Yep, sure need that "soil poison" as some like to call it. YR all the way for accurate forecasts. Sometimes overstate the quantities in big rain events but more accurate than anyone else in my opinion. Got a friend in NewZealand who swears by them too. Maybe a good use for some of the money raised from oil royalties? Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 09:06 4 Well, my faith in yr.no just got eroded. Overnight they changed from 3" this weekend to 3mm. Meanwhile Environment Canada went from chance of showers to actual rain, and weather network held their ground. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Aug 9, 2018 | 09:16 5 Drew hit every main rain event we got. He did miss Sunday as we were suppose to get a nice rain. But he didn’t post a Sunday report and the one I read was Friday.

I’ll pay another year Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 09:26 6
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
Yep, sure need that "soil poison" as some like to call it. YR all the way for accurate forecasts. Sometimes overstate the quantities in big rain events but more accurate than anyone else in my opinion. Got a friend in NewZealand who swears by them too. Maybe a good use for some of the money raised from oil royalties?
It is amazing how ones perception of soil poison changes with the quantity with which one is blessed, and when. During all of these wet years, the dry years of 2002 and 2003 have always been in the back of my mind, and even though the dry years are much less probable than the wet years around here, those two left a bigger mark on my psyche than all the wet years. And I make all improvements and management decisions with the thought of handling the next drought better than that we did that one. And have succeeded very well I would say. Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 11:17 7
Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
Well, my faith in yr.no just got eroded. Overnight they changed from 3" this weekend to 3mm. Meanwhile Environment Canada went from chance of showers to actual rain, and weather network held their ground.
Tell us on Monday if your faith is eroded. My guess is it won't be. They are very good at precipitation forecasting. Reply With Quote
Aug 9, 2018 | 12:03 8
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
Tell us on Monday if your faith is eroded. My guess is it won't be. They are very good at precipitation forecasting.
But, which time were they good at it? Wednesday forecast 3 inches or When they forecast 3 mm? And now up to 9mm. If I threw out that range of predictions I could probably be right too. Reply With Quote
fjlip's Avatar Aug 9, 2018 | 13:07 9 I guess such a variety of CLIMATE SCIENTISTS can't agree on near term weather. But for the next 50 years we are all going to a HOT HELL, going UP a degree or two, by adding up and calculating the whole earth's average temp to the tenth of a degree!
See now how totally unrealistic and total BS Climate Change is? Try the weather for tomorrow before lying about next 50 years, total assholes! Reply With Quote
Aug 11, 2018 | 23:46 10
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
Tell us on Monday if your faith is eroded. My guess is it won't be. They are very good at precipitation forecasting.
We got 3 mm in a thunderstorm early this evening, exactly correct to the lowest of their forecasts. They bounced between 3, 9, 15, 35, and 72mm and many points in between during each updated forecast since I started the thread, not all that helpful. More still in the forecast, but nothing on the radar. Not sure that 3mm is going to change much. The radar sure looks busy north and west of here though. Which is a change, the last few storms went south of here instead of north. Reply With Quote