Heard on radio today, you guys might help me

[malleefarmer]

Have a world snap shot.

Today talking about corn and how yield could go from 178 to 174 bushels.

Ive never been in corn growing areas but to me it seems miniscule but the guys said its really a big deal and concern.

Does 4 bushels make that much difference to balance sheets and stocks etc and with all crop scouting monitoring etc should they have know they may lose a few bushels.

Presuming 4 bushels wont make much difference to corn farmers bottom line.

[malleefarmer]

Oh and ps i may have got the figures wrong with 178 but it was definately 4 bushles he was talking about.

[macdon02]

Oh and ps i may have got the figures wrong with 178 but it was definately 4 bushles he was talking about.

That sounds about right. They got trendline pegged in as a slam dunk. Monday they said corn is 38% dough stage. It's filling the quickest since 2012 at 37% for this week. If you reference the futures that was $8 corn.

These markets are very close to cutting loose but it won't be in '18. Chicago wheat left a gap at 532 it has to fill. Gaps fill either 3 days, weeks or months after they are created. I'll wager 3 months from now after the seasonal rally into planting time. If you study cycles the $6 Wheat level is critical to close over on a monthly level, was our previous roof prior to 08. A monthly close over $6 will indicate, in my eyes, we take out the highs. The downside of these lofty prices is we have massive weather issues worldwide.(Droughts intensify and real ones last much longer then 2 or 3 years) Even though corn has been holding trendline yields the usage from low prices relative to the highs has been steadily increasing. I think we are getting a suckers rally here, it's not the real deal just yet. We need to still pick our spots to sell into. Just my view from the top of the bleachers. Rip me all you want lol. PS. I believe a 174 # puts the US into a 1.3 carryout position. I'd have to find my what if scenario... depending on harvested area and current exports/ usage. A 165 yield is negative carryover with some assumptions factored in

[malleefarmer]

So 174 to 170 puts them in neuetral for want of a better word and 165 shortage or negative carryout as you said.

Fine line guees there alot of acres.

I believe corn farming is actually quite profitable even at low prices correct me if im wrong.

A big weather system here in oz over next 10 days if turns out to be paddy shot australia is kinda in trouble mostly nsw.

Myself below average but not catastrophic compared to many.

Not heat or the likes just wind and lack of rain.

Ive got a farm from a official govt weather rrecorder and he in forms me today dreist 7 months since 1976 wow 42 years 102mm to end july. Were at about a 63% below average.

A below average crop aint the end of the world when feed barley is up to $335 on farm

[SASKFARMER3]

But Canada the Boy Scouts of the World all our reps and advisors are calling this crop we have coming bigger than last year.

None have really left their offices or drove around and if they did look in fields they cherry picked.

Like, drive from Bigger and miss looking all way to Tisdale. Ah, big area and big issues.


Or stop Regina and then miss all way to outside swift in a rain-hit farm.

Its a joke whats going on in Canada this year and every year.

Why can't someone just come out and call it like it is a Normal crop for some? Below average for others and a few with a disaster.

[farming101]

Why 4 bushels is kind of a big deal.

Assuming consumption stayed the same(not likely), we are in the position where a 4 bushel drop could easily increase the US farmer's net per acre on corn