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Has China run out of bullets

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    Has China run out of bullets

    https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=8a79ffe1bc

    Peter Zeihan's take on the next steps in the trade war.

    #2
    Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
    https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=8a79ffe1bc

    Peter Zeihan's take on the next steps in the trade war.
    Far from it . . . currency war next.

    Trump is shepherding in an American recession quickly (IMO). Mind you, U.S. gov't stated last nite; Tariffs are having no impact on the American economy.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
      Far from it . . . currency war next.
      US has been through 20 recessions and survived. I would like to see how china handles its first one.

      If a US recession means knock china off its perch for 20 yrs without a shooting war, well worth doing. This is about WAY more than trade and tarriffs.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by jazz View Post
        US has been through 20 recessions and survived. I would like to see how china handles its first one.

        If a US recession means knock china off its perch for 20 yrs without a shooting war, well worth doing. This is about WAY more than trade and tarriffs.
        Yes because it's in our best interest for our largest canola buyer's economy to tank and demand to drop

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Klause View Post
          Yes because it's in our best interest for our largest canola buyer's economy to tank and demand to drop
          Short term thinking klause. There is a struggle for the next 100 yrs being played out on the global stage. Its about more than your canola crop.

          China will still buy our food, they have no choice. As will many other countries.

          Canada needs to cozy up to the US now and ride along because they will win this war. We could be doing a lot more trade with an even greater economic power house. Our bread is buttered in the US, not China.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by jazz View Post
            Short term thinking klause. There is a struggle for the next 100 yrs being played out on the global stage. Its about more than your canola crop.

            China will still buy our food, they have no choice. As will many other countries.

            Canada needs to cozy up to the US now and ride along because they will win this war. We could be doing a lot more trade with an even greater economic power house. Our bread is buttered in the US, not China.
            Strangely China hasn't hit cotton yet..... But this could be trumps move. Shutdown the garment factories with 25% on Chinese cotton product exports. There's a way bigger stick being the buyer then the seller of manufactured goods.... as our grain buyers know
            Last edited by macdon02; Jul 13, 2018, 13:08.

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              #7
              Trade between china is 3:1. Trump can do a lot more damage than china could do.

              They might try something next like a currency devaluation, but their stock market will drop and financing become more expensive. They might try selling US treasuries, but the US dollar is getting stronger so someone will buy that debt.

              Trump can sanction or tax any US company operating there, he can shut out china from the global financial system. He can twist oil as a weapon. US has a lot more tools.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                Far from it . . . currency war next.

                Trump is shepherding in an American recession quickly (IMO). Mind you, U.S. gov't stated last nite; Tariffs are having no impact on the American economy.
                Trade war, currency war, shooting war

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by biglentil View Post
                  Trade war, currency war, shooting war
                  Why would invade a billion people that have no oil, no resources and are totally import export dependant? And then be financially responsible for them? There has to be a goal in war. Syria and Iraq were over oil. Korea Vietnam was over McCarthyism/ communism. That's dead. China will cave rather then suffer an uprising.

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                    #10
                    China digging in and swinging toward alternatives to cut U.S. soy dependency . . . . If trade war extended, Trump's protectionism now at-risk of irreversible financial damage to the American Midwest. Soybean S and D's will be a mess with more corn planted next year for disastrous soy returns? Corn trouble too. There is no 'winning' strategy here (IMO) . . . .

                    This may be a boon for western Canada. China may possibly look toward more meat imports to replace soymeal fed hogs. Also, peas may be on the hog menu.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      http://chsnorthlandgrain.com/grain/cash-bids/

                      Without this morning's bounce cash bids would have been $6.xx. Now look at Saskatoon delivery. We are already winning, nice premium with currency factored in. Now how do I import US beans stamp them as Canadian origin and hit the Chinese market with them? Lol

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                        #12
                        Corn fundamentals are apt to turn messy as well over the next 18 months, suggesting ongoing price weakness. Maybe more Cdn feeder cattle will be heading across the border to be fed. Our barley may turn into premium export market.

                        What comes around, goes around in global trade. Who knows, maybe we will be winning . . . .

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Please remind us how the war with Japan started. If you back someone into a corner it will not end well.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Article offers a good summary. China looses big so it might as well get to the negotiating table now. It is a simple as the customer is always right. Lots of Chicoms on here apparently. Your right jazz in that this is about more than one season's canola crop. Lots of Canadian canola gone stateside as well.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Talk of some American friends is that soy might be stored and paid for by trump for this year but what happens next year when all
                              That comes to market and where do they have that storage? But they are worried maybe no market and maybe no payment either??? Will be interesting.

                              Comment

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