Will western Canadian crop size/conditions matter in this years market?

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Will western Canadian crop size/conditions matter in this years market?

Jul 11, 2018 | 10:27 1 I don't really have a handle on what crops are like across western Canada this summer, sounds like many areas are getting just in time rains, few areas are flooded out, and a big chunk is dry but not quite desperate enough to make headlines, is that fair?

But will it matter? Are we going to be drug down along with CBOT prices regardless of what we produce? I still think that we have opportunities to fill the void left by US trade policies and retaliations, but at what price level?

At the middle of July, not much room left for any weather rallies, except maybe an early August frost or blizzard, probably not something one should bet the farm on...

Are we likely to be flooded with cheaper US grain, equalizing the price difference if our export markets hold up? Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 12:57 2 Fairly steep declines in grain price futures today as fears increase over trade war.
Expect prices to arbitrage or even out with US ones.
Do not see how Trump can maintain support from moderate Republicans in farm states so trade war fears are overdone. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jul 11, 2018 | 13:10 3 China is smart drop soy beans and buy Canadian Canola knowing full well canola is priced off or in connection with beans.

Slam cheap supply from stupid Canadians it’s a win win for China.

Ottawa not a peep except support a carbon tax that will eventually kill your operation.

Subsidies hahahahahah Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 13:20 4 Grain buyers are expecting a huge canola crop.
Prices have slid $1/bushel roughly in last 4 months for new crop and old crop. Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 13:56 5
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
Grain buyers are expecting a huge canola crop.
Prices have slid $1/bushel roughly in last 4 months for new crop and old crop.
Would love to see vegetative index maps of western Canada right now . Would tell the story right or wrong Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Jul 11, 2018 | 14:42 6
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
Would love to see vegetative index maps of western Canada right now . Would tell the story right or wrong
Ask and you shall receive

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Klause's Avatar Jul 11, 2018 | 14:47 7 Drought Conditions, July 1



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Jul 11, 2018 | 15:00 8 Thanks Klause..

Here is a side by side enhanced view of the northeast. 2017/2018
These are not NDVI maps.

In my view the northeast is showing the greatest improvement on the prairies for crop stage and growth over last year

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Klause's Avatar Jul 11, 2018 | 15:27 9 Some more data.

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Jul 11, 2018 | 15:35 10 Where are you finding the maps Klause? Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 15:38 11
Quote Originally Posted by Klause View Post
Ask and you shall receive

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Thx 👍
That in no way will translate into a big crop of any sorts .
Maybe average overall at best Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 15:51 12 I just checked Alberta's drought maps, the majority of the most productive areas are all in varying degrees of drought. The exceptions being the extreme east and north.

In my area for the 365 days preceeding, we are at a "less than 1 in 50 year dry", ( and that includes a huge amount of snowfall this winter which all ran off of frozen ground. On the 90 day, we are 1 in 12 year dry. That does explain why the hay crops are so pitiful.

The soil moisture map looks even worse than the rainfall, with the entire agricultural area being short on soil moisture. https://www.agriculture.alberta.ca/acis/maps/soil_moisture_(modeled)/spring_wheat/current/SmCur_y2018_m07_d10_b.png[/URL] Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 16:07 13 Luxuriant vegetation does not automatically mean a bumper grain crop. Forage yes Reply With Quote
Jul 11, 2018 | 16:49 14
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Luxuriant vegetation does not automatically mean a bumper grain crop. Forage yes
Very , very true . Something called maturity comes into play in most of western Canada lol Reply With Quote