Soybean Trade war; Just the Beginning

[errolanderson]

Accumulated U.S. exports of soybeans to China are now down 27 million MT or off more than 20 percent year-to-date. These numbers will only get larger as China bears down on U.S. imports.

There will be fireworks across the American Midwest very soon.

Nov beans appear taking aim at $8.50/bu soon? . . . .

[westernvicki]

China's political structure enables it to be a very deliberate nation: they will deliberately seek alternative sources of secure and dependable food supply.

[Klause]

China's political structure enables it to be a very deliberate nation: they will deliberately seek alternative sources of secure and dependable food supply.

Argentina, Brazil for soy.

FSU for wheat, pulses, ****seed.

Why do you think the OBOR initiative invested so much money into these countries/economies.



If we had real infrastructure and business sense we'd be buying US soybeans and shipping them to Asia; considering we aren't capable of shipping our own production that won't happen.

[JoeyJeremiah]

Accumulated U.S. exports of soybeans to China are now down 27 million MT or off more than 20 percent year-to-date. These numbers will only get larger as China bears down on U.S. imports.

There will be fireworks across the American Midwest very soon.

Nov beans appear taking aim at $8.50/bu soon? . . . .

More so then 8 dollar corn and beans in the teens, this will do more to bolster and delevope third world and deleoping nation's ag infrastructure and industry then anything else. China and other nations will find and develop alternatives even at the expense of short term pain. This will hurt the American farmer much more then it helps for years to come. I guarantee that they will do their best to ensure they can't be held hostage by America.

[errolanderson]

China's political structure enables it to be a very deliberate nation: they will deliberately seek alternative sources of secure and dependable food supply.

Vicki . . . right on. The ‘art of the deal’ is in for a true challenge.

Recession bells now ringing stateside as long and short treasuries threatening to invert. U.S. banks now under pressure despite a booming U.S. economy.

[ajl]

China's political structure enables it to be a very deliberate nation: they will deliberately seek alternative sources of secure and dependable food supply.

China will deliberately starve millions more peasants by being idiots. China is broke. They have 50T in mostly $USD debt they need to service. How do you think they got 8% or whatever economic growth? Yes by running up the credit card. It doesn't show at federal debt over their but was borrowed by local authorities to build all sorts of things like ghost cities, bridges to nowhere and some on factories that were leased to third party manufacturing. No way central planning beats free enterprise, mind you there is not much free enterprise around anywhere these days. They will be sourcing US beans out of third party vendors for premium prices soon enough however their lack of the necessary $USD will hamper bean buying for more than any tariff and that is what is driving the market now.

[errolanderson]

According to ABC News, China has issued a travel warning for its citizens travelling to the U.S.

This is heating up fast . . . .

[farming101]

Accumulated U.S. exports of soybeans to China are now down 27 million MT or off more than 20 percent year-to-date. These numbers will only get larger as China bears down on U.S. imports.

There will be fireworks across the American Midwest very soon.

Nov beans appear taking aim at $8.50/bu soon? . . . .

Your source?
I'm looking at the USDA numbers for June 21. It says beans shipped to China are down 7,010,700 tonnes from last year. Outstanding sales are down 454,800 tonnes.

2016-17 marketing year US bean exports shipped to China were 36,148,300 tonnes as of Aug 31,2017

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/Year2018/CAM-6-21-18.pdf https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/Year2018/CAM-6-21-18.pdf
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/Year2017/CAM-08-31.pdf https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/Year2017/CAM-08-31.pdf

[Oliver88]

Will there be an opportunity for decent soybean prices for Manitoba and Saskatchewan growers?

Could CN and CP get them moved to the coast to fill orders?

[malleefarmer]

isnt it fact that china CANNOT source enough beans if they choose not to use usa beans?

50/50 or 60/40 split brazil beans versus usa beans?

They can always source animal protien via feed barley from australia first canada second bugger everyone else

[furrowtickler]

isnt it fact that china CANNOT source enough beans if they choose not to use usa beans?

50/50 or 60/40 split brazil beans versus usa beans?

They can always source animal protien via feed barley from australia first canada second bugger everyone else

Going to put some extra foliar on my soybeans, maybe I can help out ... lol
But it could be an opportunity for us here in Canada if we can get consistent yield.

[macdon02]

I think Errol and AJ are both correct. Just different timeframes. Errol has the short term and the AJ the long. Watch the weather in China and Russia, they are both moving into drought.

[errolanderson]

Finch Ratings warning of $2 trillion in global trade now at-risk should Trump stay on trade warpath

China now blocking U.S. Micron chip sales could unnerve NASDAQ on reopening Thursday.

USD pullback and CAD recovery on these churning and destabilizing trade events? . . . we'll see

[AlbertaFarmer5]

China has already removed barriers to importing additional canola meal since this trade war started. Canola price has held up surprisingly well, inspite of weather and soybean price. The only reasonable explanation is that demand from China is increasing to make up for lack of US soybeans.

[errolanderson]

More China cancellations of U.S. soybean shipments heard today. Fresh contract lows tested again.

China has repeatedly stated they will not fire the first shot, but will retaliate should the U.S. do so.

The financial fallout across the Midwest within agriculture and outside of agriculture will be immense.

U.S. tariffs come into effect Friday, July 06th . . . .