Commodity Markets Send Warnings

[HappyFarmer]

Group . . . Falling commodity prices are sending a warning to markets (IMO).

Global equities face a critical week as the U.S. and China now appear fully engaged in a trade war.

Hone your marketing skills. World trade is now a nasty place for the unsuspecting . . . .

We shall see.....

So does this mean that China needs less corn, soybeans, cotton, pork etc etc etc??????I think not.

Could be a huge opportunity for CDN farmers IF tariffs go on.......I HIGHLY doubt it ever will but we shall see. The US needs China and vice versa....they will get it figured out. This is all part of the negotiating process.

The tariffs....coupled with the market perception of perfect conditions in North America one cant be that surprised by this market action. Do you really think in the near term the market is going to price in 200 Bu/acre Iowa Corn????? I would do doubt it.

The corn balance sheet looks pretty interest. Its late June and you push that U.S. corn yield down to 171 ish things get rather interesting.

#feellikebuyingDECcorn....

[burnt]

We shall see.....

So does this mean that China needs less corn, soybeans, cotton, pork etc etc etc??????I think not.

Could be a huge opportunity for CDN farmers IF tariffs go on.......I HIGHLY doubt it ever will but we shall see. The US needs China and vice versa....they will get it figured out. This is all part of the negotiating process.

The tariffs....coupled with the market perception of perfect conditions in North America one cant be that surprised by this market action. Do you really think in the near term the market is going to price in 200 Bu/acre Iowa Corn????? I would do doubt it.

The corn balance sheet looks pretty interest. Its late June and you push that U.S. corn yield down to 171 ish things get rather interesting.

#feellikebuyingDECcorn....

Big bullies duking it out.

Meantime, lots of little guys get trampled.

[errolanderson]

Even though the drums were pounding just two (2) weeks ago, a Bank of Canada July rate hike now looks out-of-the-question (IMO).

If Canada's economy heads for recession due to Trump tariffs and deflating commodity prices, BOC rate cuts might actually be in-store later this year (IMO) . . . .

[quadtrac]

Seems like a good buying opportunity to me.

[Crestliner]

Oh all the opportunities that all the political machinations bring about....very exciting time to be alive and working. There is money to be made from both the long and short side. Watch yellow pea prices go up....negative crop reports in Canada and tariffs on US beans....China will get real friendly with Canada...good for Canadian canola too.

[Klause]

Oh all the opportunities that all the political machinations bring about....very exciting time to be alive and working. There is money to be made from both the long and short side. Watch yellow pea prices go up....negative crop reports in Canada and tariffs on US beans....China will get real friendly with Canada...good for Canadian canola too.

Umm.. why?


Kazakhstan and Russia /Ukraine way closer.


By the time this blows over our currency will be worthless and interest rates will kill ag and all Canadian industry.

[quadtrac]

Umm.. why?


Kazakhstan and Russia /Ukraine way closer.


By the time this blows over our currency will be worthless and interest rates will kill ag and all Canadian industry.

You sure turned negative man good grief. Thought you used to be fairly positive what happened man? Lol

[WiltonRanch]

You sure turned negative man good grief. Thought you used to be fairly positive what happened man? Lol

Parenthood.

[farming101]

Canada is the dominant exporter of peas to China. Sales have more than doubled in the last 8 years. The market is Canada's to lose not so much any other country's to win

Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine export basically no peas to China now. Of course that could change but I think it would take a while. Just my thoughts and ramblings fwiw

[hobbyfrmr]

Parenthood.

Agreed.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Agreed.

I had a neighbor like that. From the outside he had it made. Beautiful wife, who made enough that he didn't even have to work unless he felt like it, but made good money if he did, spent most of his time building 4x4 toys etc. Had a paid for acreage and house in the country, had me for a neighbor on all 4 sides( most importantly), and was always pessimistic about something( maybe his neighbor?)

Then they had a baby, and his pessimism hit a new all time low. He was so upset about the world he was bringing this baby into, and what kind of future she would have. It was almost depressing... Then they sold their house and moved into to house sit her Dad's mansion ( I think on a resort), so I don't know if it got any better or worse, have lost touch lately. Sure glad none of those things happened to me...

[WiltonRanch]

When you become a parent and I stress parent not simply sperm donor, it’s natural instinct you’re wary and suspicious of the world. Have a few rugrats whom aren’t really rugrats anymore. Sure change your outlook, friend circle, lifestyle, and interaction with the outside world. Things are tough for lots of reasons and there enough problems but dwelling on it turns you into an old man too soon. Besides it affects your family if you can’t at least be positive with them. Been there myself. Still have troubles but try not to be an asshole. People have children with special needs are heroes in my eyes because nothing tests your mettle and the bonds of a marriage than raising a child with such issues.

[dave4441]

Canada is the dominant exporter of peas to China. Sales have more than doubled in the last 8 years. The market is Canada's to lose not so much any other country's to win

Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine export basically no peas to China now. Of course that could change but I think it would take a while. Just my thoughts and ramblings fwiw

They are working on their phyto requirements with China. As they are new producers they didn't have the ability to sell into that market. With India essentially closed, they are pushing to fix these regulatory requirements for new crop. They will then be a competitor in these markets.

This Black Sea competition issue is continueing to build. Reds sold from new crop Kzackstan into Turkey recently reflect 11 cents per pound to Canadian grower. We haven't seen the full impact of this competition to our Canadian operations yet. It's still coming.

[Klause]

They are working on their phyto requirements with China. As they are new producers they didn't have the ability to sell into that market. With India essentially closed, they are pushing to fix these regulatory requirements for new crop. They will then be a competitor in these markets.

This Black Sea competition issue is continueing to build. Reds sold from new crop Kzackstan into Turkey recently reflect 11 cents per pound to Canadian grower. We haven't seen the full impact of this competition to our Canadian operations yet. It's still coming.

dave, What did you see for yellows from Eurasia?


I've been hearing $4.75-$5.25/bu reflected back to a farmer in central SK... Please tell me that's B/S???


Argentina full of stories about how chickpeas are profitable, good for the soil, and a valid replacement for wheat... They are exporting pretty decent tonnage again.


Reports from OK and TX of wheat @ 16-18% protein, lower yields some is lower test weight (56lbs).

[highwayman]

We've been growing chickpeas on our farm for 22 years now and this crop has generated a lot of wealth on the good years as well as a couple of wrecks on the wet years. To go grow them in moist, high humidity climates is almost a guaranteed eventual disaster. As a suitable replacement for wheat, highly unlikely. Me thinks Argentina has much to learn yet grasshopper