• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Collapse of Soybeans

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Collapse of Soybeans

    U.S. June 15th tariff D-day have bean bulls running for the exit door. Soybeans appear now in-the-process technically of a $1.25/bu washout. China has been spooky quiet. Canola caught in the crossfire.

    Trump tariffs now impacting the heartland of Trump support . . . the American Midwest.

    #2
    Likely this is just routine switching from old to new crop as most needs are booked until new crop. The rate rise also will give some downward pressure to commodities as well. China will be back for more US beans if they have any US cash around and that is a big if. Wheat was also off today significantly. Must have found some higher yielding areas on the harvest run.

    Comment


      #3
      The crossfire taking Canola down adds to the slow gradual downward spot price for Canola.

      It wasn't long ago farmaholic was discussing "settling" for $12 Canola......now it's $11.25- $11.50.

      Comment


        #4
        pioneer in crooked river was still paying $12 a week ago . finished us off

        Comment


          #5
          O88, there is no more canola available now than when I settled for $12 a short while ago. Silly market.

          Comment


            #6
            If they were buying at 12 ...then at 11.25 it has to be a great deal...

            Comment


              #7
              If Trump follows through on tariff threats tomorrow, watch for an immediate, sharp response from China.

              Beans are in trouble, unfortunately canola will be dragged under if this scenario unfolds.

              As Alan Greenspan stated yesterday, we are now on-the-cusp of a major global trade war.

              Comment


                #8
                For growers needing fall price protection, November canola $510 puts may trade around $16/MT and starts $6/MT in-the-money.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                  For growers needing fall price protection, November canola $510 puts may trade around $16/MT and starts $6/MT in-the-money.
                  $500 puts were trading at $10.00 yesterday. Fairly cheap vol, right around 10%

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Perdue University now estimating that should China retaliate with a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean imports, China purchases of American beans may plummet 65 percent in the new crop year. Purchases would shift toward much cheaper South American product.

                    Mind you, Pres Trump did say trade wars are easy to win . . . .

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                      Perdue University now estimating that should China retaliate with a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean imports, China purchases of American beans may plummet 65 percent in the new crop year. Purchases would shift toward much cheaper South American product.

                      Mind you, Pres Trump did say trade wars are easy to win . . . .
                      Any opinion on how it will affect sales of Canadian beans to China?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                        Perdue University now estimating that should China retaliate with a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean imports, China purchases of American beans may plummet 65 percent in the new crop year. Purchases would shift toward much cheaper South American product.

                        Mind you, Pres Trump did say trade wars are easy to win . . . .
                        How utterly ridiculous, South America apparently has unlimited superfluous soybeans sitting on the shelf to make up for all the sales that used to come from the US. And of course they will continue to be a lower cost once they have the monopoly on sales to China. Obviously there is no global market, and everything occurs in isolation. Not aimed at you Errol, but at the authors.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Trump imposed $24 billion of tariffs on Chinese imported goods this morning and threatens more.

                          Wonder what China will do with their U.S. bond holdings now?

                          Soybean collapse continues . . . this is a train wreck with all global commodities impacted

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Errol, ultimately there will be no winners and many who suffer unnecessary collateral damage...

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                              Trump imposed $24 billion of tariffs on Chinese imported goods this morning and threatens more.

                              Wonder what China will do with their U.S. bond holdings now?

                              Soybean collapse continues . . . this is a train wreck with all global commodities impacted
                              China has been steadily reducing US treasury holdings for some time. The big surprise is that rates are not higher. The 10 year is back under 3% again. Market has known this day was coming for some time. Again President Trump did not start the trade war, he has merely responded. The ROW will have to find ways of stimulating demand without counting on the US to absorb all of the worlds exports.

                              Comment

                              • Reply to this Thread
                              • Return to Topic List
                              Working...
                              X

                              This website uses tracking tools, including cookies. We use these technologies for a variety of reasons, including to recognize new and past website users, to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests.
                              You agree to our and by clicking I agree.