Long range weather

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Long range weather

Mar 12, 2018 | 19:18 1 Just wondering if anyone has heard any credible long range weather for the southern prairies this spring and summer, excluding animal organ and sunspot forecasts. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Mar 12, 2018 | 20:03 2 What else is there?

Macro forecasts hitting micro targets.

El Nino, La Nina, jet streams, ocean temps in the Gulf of Alaska, cycles and trends

The more vague the forecast the better chance of accuracy

The more precise the forecast the more apt it is to be wrong

Forecasting seems to have gotten better but it's still left to being wildly random.

My biggest weather forecasting beef....forecasting rain, outright rain, in quantities as well. Why start at 80% five to seven days out then drop the chances steadily until the system arrives and they're down to 30%....why not start at 30% and increase the chance as it begins to look like a sure thing, if it develops! And then the quantities of rain and the systems tracking paths yet.....yikes! Nothing like having your hopes dashed. How many people made farming business decisions based on rain in the forecast only to come up dry or too short of expectations....based on a "fool"proof forecast.


Roll with the punches.....except sometimes Mother Nature hits below the belt.

Best of luck to everyone in 2018, I hope you get what you're looking for.....but what you get may not be exactly what you "want" or "need"......weather! Reply With Quote
Mar 12, 2018 | 21:01 3 I looked at this one - not sure how "credible" it is. Shows a significant chance of the western US being very dry/burning. If that pans out I can't see it stopping at the border.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/2018-canada-spring-forecast-national-next-three-months-of-weather-temperature-precipitation/96229 Reply With Quote
Mar 12, 2018 | 21:16 4 Thanks, that forecast is tough on Budweiser dividends and new born calves. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Mar 12, 2018 | 23:06 5 Env. Canada seasonal forecasts:
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

Accuweather pushes out 90 days... I don't read much into it though. Reply With Quote
Mar 12, 2018 | 23:43 6 Farma, I agree. to be useful forecasts need to include a confidence factor, not just a probability factor. Being 10% confident that there is 90% chance of rain is not the same as being 90% certain about a 10% chance of rain. At the very least, they need to define what a 60% chance of showers actually means. Will they cover 60% of the area, 60% of the time, 60% chance that they will occur at all, anywhere, or they are only 60% sure that there will be a precipitation event, yet to be defined? Reply With Quote
Mar 13, 2018 | 00:43 7
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
What else is there?

Macro forecasts hitting micro targets.

El Nino, La Nina, jet streams, ocean temps in the Gulf of Alaska, cycles and trends

The more vague the forecast the better chance of accuracy

The more precise the forecast the more apt it is to be wrong

Forecasting seems to have gotten better but it's still left to being wildly random.

My biggest weather forecasting beef....forecasting rain, outright rain, in quantities as well. Why start at 80% five to seven days out then drop the chances steadily until the system arrives and they're down to 30%....why not start at 30% and increase the chance as it begins to look like a sure thing, if it develops! And then the quantities of rain and the systems tracking paths yet.....yikes! Nothing like having your hopes dashed. How many people made farming business decisions based on rain in the forecast only to come up dry or too short of expectations....based on a "fool"proof forecast.


Roll with the punches.....except sometimes Mother Nature hits below the belt.

Best of luck to everyone in 2018, I hope you get what you're looking for.....but what you get may not be exactly what you "want" or "need"......weather!
Yep farma same the world over 7/10 downgrades 2/10 as forecast 1/10 upgrades with rainfall "events" forecast 7 to 10 days out Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Mar 13, 2018 | 09:36 8 The trend is your friend... or enemy! Seems in a wet bias, if they plug a 30% chance of showers into the forecast 7 days out and you can damn near bank on at least 3/10".

In a dry bias, "periods of rain" 7 days out is often slimmed down to "a mix of sun and cloud" by the time it arrives. Reply With Quote
Mar 14, 2018 | 06:16 9 That’s exactly right helms. They just can’t seem to figure that out tho. Reply With Quote
GDR
Mar 14, 2018 | 16:59 10 I sure hope the long range weather smartens up! Snow above your knees here and now a heavy snowfall warning for tommorow for central AB. No More Please!



Got the sled stuck checking cows this am, had to walk home for the shovel, got stuck 3 more times trying to find snow that would support me. Reply With Quote
Mar 14, 2018 | 22:02 11 for what it's worth NOAA weather forecast . . . doesn't include Canada but you can connect the dots, looks like hotter and dryer as the summer progresses.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nge/tools2.php Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Mar 14, 2018 | 22:16 12 Easter is right around the corner......just to dumb down all the scientific and technical forecasts, does anyone open Easter eggs from last year to predict how much moisture there will be.....another old wive's tale. Folklore forecasting might be as accurate? Lol. Reply With Quote
Mar 14, 2018 | 22:29 13 Accu Weather says 25-30 cm late Sat through Monday for my area. Pig spleen guy said snow around the 20th. Last snow pig said on the 5th, so wasn’t far off. Bring it on, take every flake.
Can’t see that much happening, but half that would be nice. Reply With Quote
Mar 14, 2018 | 23:27 14 It's shrinking fast around Regina. Lentil stubbles aren't holding much. Welcome Snow, the more, the merrier. Hope that forecast is right Bigzee. Reply With Quote