Dairy trade and NAFTA

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Dairy trade and NAFTA

Mar 6, 2018 | 08:23 31 Tell Trump to screw himself regarding his tariffs, USA industry needs our steel and aluminum. You give into this, and next it will be agriculture produces. The USA Wheat Growers have Trump's ear and will be demanding this for wheat imports. They tried numerous times in the past when the CWB was around.

Can't understand why there is so much animosity on Agriville towards Supply Management producers on here, especially dairy farmers.

If one sector in agriculture is doing well, good on them. I'm thinking that most poster's on here could have easily got into the dairy industry when they first started out farming, but choose to go into crop production. Probably weren't willing to give up their life style.

This B.S put on here by some poster's claiming that prices for dairy would go down for Canadian consumers if USA dairy products could come in know very well this would never happen. Nothing more than a smoke screen to hid behind. Reply With Quote
ajl
Mar 6, 2018 | 09:04 32 Some parts of the US like Michigan and Ohio, milk retails for around 1.75 Us per gallon which is half price as here so savings do get passed on. Areas with more retail competition have the lowest dairy prices which is often used as a loss leader. The average family of four likely pays around 200-300 per year of dairy tax to maintain this scheme in Canuckistan. I think this dairy tax is increasingly unaffordable for many Canadians who do not have government jobs as the rest of the economy slowly disappears around here. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 15:59 33 Quoting the firesale price in a region where there is a surplus to the point the industry is collapsing is not a valid argument for dismantling SM. Interesting that the Wisconsin producers affected by the recent diafiltered milk spat don't blame Canada or SM for their woes - they recognize that over production and marketing chaos is the cause of their woes.

Milk and dairy products have risen at comparable rates to the Consumer Price Index in Canada over the past 30 years.

The price consumers pay for a litre of milk in Canada is roughly similar to that in China, New Zealand, the EU and many parts of the United States. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 16:28 34 We’re talking here about milk but what about feathers? Guys in that end tell me it’s no hell even with sm. COP for a chicken barn in Georgia so much cheaper even with freight still would compete up here. Reply With Quote
fjlip's Avatar Mar 6, 2018 | 19:36 35
Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
We’re talking here about milk but what about feathers? Guys in that end tell me it’s no hell even with sm. COP for a chicken barn in Georgia so much cheaper even with freight still would compete up here.
I get the idea that EVERYTHING can be done cheaper than here in a WARMER climate, CLOSER to larger population, with NO MOUNTAINS in the way to market. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 20:26 36 1.50 a litre here. Doesn't cost much more than that for a gallon in Minnesota. Drink about 3 gallons a week of it, so I subsidize the dairy cartel a fair bit in a year. No problem with US milk. Lots of co-ops that don't allow rBST anymore, probably more than 50% - one of the big reasons your seeing all the small dairies collapse in the Midwest - can't push those 40 cows to produce like 50 cows anymore.

Dismantle the SM cartel and then go after the forestry industry. Those pricks and government have gotten away with selling/buying cheap (aka subsidized) Crown wood bullshit for far too many years. Time for US to rip their nuts off properly. Put a 50% tariff on all wood products coming from Canada. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 21:11 37
Quote Originally Posted by 15444 View Post
1.50 a litre here. Doesn't cost much more than that for a gallon in Minnesota. Drink about 3 gallons a week of it, so I subsidize the dairy cartel a fair bit in a year. No problem with US milk. Lots of co-ops that don't allow rBST anymore, probably more than 50% - one of the big reasons your seeing all the small dairies collapse in the Midwest - can't push those 40 cows to produce like 50 cows anymore.

Dismantle the SM cartel and then go after the forestry industry. Those pricks and government have gotten away with selling/buying cheap (aka subsidized) Crown wood bullshit for far too many years. Time for US to rip their nuts off properly. Put a 50% tariff on all wood products coming from Canada.
I’m a little ignorant about stumpage on crown land. Have half an idea these big players jerk everyone around at times. Out east Irvings are big players in lumber and pretty much everything else. Kinda like the Rockefeller family. Could see a little collusion there. Out west Weyerhaeuser comes to mind. Though not anything like the influence Irving has. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 22:06 38
Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
I’m a little ignorant about stumpage on crown land. Have half an idea these big players jerk everyone around at times. Out east Irvings are big players in lumber and pretty much everything else. Kinda like the Rockefeller family. Could see a little collusion there. Out west Weyerhaeuser comes to mind. Though not anything like the influence Irving has.
Government likes to pretty much give it away for free. $2 a cord. That was the going price for years for everything from Sudbury to Sask/Man border. I met guys hauling wood from North of Winnipeg to here, good 5-6 hour haul one way, and from east of Thunder Bay another 5-6 hour haul one way. Asked one trucker once, how can you do it? 'Government gives wood for free - can haul wood a long ways when it's free' That kind of bullshit doesn't do anything for the public purse, distorts the private market price and pisses of trading partners. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 22:35 39
Quote Originally Posted by 15444 View Post
Government likes to pretty much give it away for free. $2 a cord. That was the going price for years for everything from Sudbury to Sask/Man border. I met guys hauling wood from North of Winnipeg to here, good 5-6 hour haul one way, and from east of Thunder Bay another 5-6 hour haul one way. Asked one trucker once, how can you do it? 'Government gives wood for free - can haul wood a long ways when it's free' That kind of bullshit doesn't do anything for the public purse, distorts the private market price and pisses of trading partners.
Just like the crown grazing leases here $1.39 / AUM plus taxes still amounts to about 5% of private fees of $30/AUM But I hear there is changes coming but won't hold my breath as there is very big money involved and powerful families. Reply With Quote
Mar 6, 2018 | 23:50 40
Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
Just like the crown grazing leases here $1.39 / AUM plus taxes still amounts to about 5% of private fees of $30/AUM But I hear there is changes coming but won't hold my breath as there is very big money involved and powerful families.
Agree that is a pittance for grazing. However, some crown grazing for the hassle isn’t worth $2. Been there done that (bush pasture, no roads, predation, never ending roundup). I’m speaking for sask. Alberta is different. Don’t lease holders get oil revenue still. Sask we pay property taxes and then whatever per aum. Was reasonable until 5 years ago then they started bumping it up. It’s no free ride here. PFRA and Sask Pasture program are done and that model is in no way sustainable outside of govt hands cause they never paid property taxes and now whoever wants to keep it going will have to pay those and whatever 50 year old “improvements” are there. As well pfra got oil revenues on the pastures which essentially made them break even. These revenues won’t be there for the grazers neither.
Last edited by WiltonRanch; Mar 6, 2018 at 23:54. Reason: More info
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Mar 7, 2018 | 10:22 41 The lease holders here collect on average 10x what they pay to the crown in resource revenue, but the community pastures don't revive any resource revenue, App 3600 lease holders share app 50 mill in annual resource revenue, as I said big money, app 1600 have no resourse revenue. Reply With Quote
GDR
Mar 7, 2018 | 14:16 42
Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
The lease holders here collect on average 10x what they pay to the crown in resource revenue, but the community pastures don't revive any resource revenue, App 3600 lease holders share app 50 mill in annual resource revenue, as I said big money, app 1600 have no resourse revenue.
Didn't that end a couple years ago getting resource revenue?? I know there was a big stir over it.

Regardless, I wouldn't take any grazing leases out west even if they paid me to use it. I got neighbors that have one, can't haul out till mid July cause of some poisonous weed, then grazing is short in fall. Always count on losing a percentage to predation. All kinds of recreation users leaving gates open, huge risk of forest fires. All has to be done by horseback. Always some rogue cows you any catch. It's only cheap until you do it! Reply With Quote
Mar 7, 2018 | 18:04 43 No there may be a limit on new leases I don't know for sure,aparently there is a hike in rates and higher transfer fees, but still way below going rates. As for out west if you mean in the mountains there never was a financial reason to be there but great for your buddies on a wild weekend if you have the money. The cows tramp the creek banks in and over graze the grass letting the sump willow to flourish. Reply With Quote
Mar 8, 2018 | 16:05 44
Quote Originally Posted by GDR View Post
AJL if you think there would be a huge drop on the price for milk at the grocery store you are dreaming. it doesn't work that way, milk is barely more than pop, similar price to juice, less than beer, retail prices will not change if wholesale price goes down and if it does it will not go down to the Wisconsin price otherwise there will be no dairy industry in Canada, cold and short growing season makes costs higher and returns lower for dairy cattle also.

If the dairy industry implodes as you seem to be hoping for there would be a whole bunch more acres freed up to grow more grain crops and a whole lot less buyers of feed grains. How's that gonna help your grain prices.

Milk in US contains BGH, a banned hormone in Canada. Up to you to decide good or bad but it's there.

As for helping the consumer, of course it does, Milk is a staple a steady supply of milk on the shelves is pretty important. Supply management is designed just like it sounds to keep from having over supply hurting farmers or under supply hurting consumers.
Isn't Wisconsin west of Ontario? I'm pretty sure that the growing season is about the same.

As for the stores have a steady supply of milk, I see the stores run out of milk and other dairy products in Canada all of the time. Other than a natural disaster, I've never seen that in the states.

I think that the facts are that the Canadian dairy industry has been allowed to become extremely inefficient due to supply management all at the expense of the consumer. The product is not better or more readily available that it is in the states. Trump is not going to allow this scheme to continue without inflicting pain on a lot of other industries. Steel and aluminum is just the beginning. Reply With Quote
Mar 9, 2018 | 13:43 45 just a note , was checking out news on how US tariffs compared to the rest of the world.
and guess what , the US already has a 20% tariff on milk .

quota cost here should have never been included as a cost of production factor for milk price.
things just got out of hand .

I guess if you kill all the dairy's here
we just get more corn , soybeans and grains on the market Reply With Quote
Mar 9, 2018 | 14:11 46 just looked up the cost of buying back all the milk quota .
approx. 1 million dairy cows in Canada .
lib.s and con.s both said they would buy up the quota
if supply management ended
market value of the quota is 23 billion
another figure 4.5 billion is book value

do not know how happy they would be with book value .

somebody get a calculator ,
23 billion divided by 36 million people equals ?

each cow is worth 25,000$
so 36 people pay for 1 cow
about 700 per person .

just think how much cash the hutterites will have to buy land after that payout.
I guess the bulk will go to Quebec and ontario
Last edited by sawfly1; Mar 9, 2018 at 14:28.
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GDR
Mar 9, 2018 | 18:36 47
Quote Originally Posted by sawfly1 View Post
just looked up the cost of buying back all the milk quota .
approx. 1 million dairy cows in Canada .
lib.s and con.s both said they would buy up the quota
if supply management ended
market value of the quota is 23 billion
another figure 4.5 billion is book value

do not know how happy they would be with book value .

somebody get a calculator ,
23 billion divided by 36 million people equals ?

each cow is worth 25,000$
so 36 people pay for 1 cow
about 700 per person .

just think how much cash the hutterites will have to buy land after that payout.
I guess the bulk will go to Quebec and ontario
Absolutely right, and it has to be compensated properly. Part of the reason the gov defends supply management is those ag sectors are profitable and don't take tax dollars to support it like beef, pigs, grain farms etc have through various subsidies and ad hoc programs. So if a dairy industry is to continue afterwards, you gotta expect more tax dollars flowing that way than just quota values. It will cost us all.


And... anyone thinking retail prices would go down is just foolish. Does beer go down when malt barley is lower, bread down as wheat price drops?? Of course not, it's not the way the system works. Reply With Quote