Looks like disappointing rains in Argentina

Commodity Marketing


Looks like disappointing rains in Argentina

Feb 11, 2018 | 19:58 1 Rain that was predicted in a Argentina this wk end didn’t develop like thought. Soybeans are up .12, canola around $2.50
Nice to see something positive to start the wk.
Wish we could start getting some moisture, Spring is coming and things look bleak at this point. Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 20:09 2 HRS up as well Reply With Quote
iceman's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 20:58 3 Selling Nov canola right now has me more worked up than a high school kid at a strip club. I'm loving this near 510 level.
Feel free to tar and feather me 101

Iceman Out Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 21:01 4 Canola acres wil far exceed expectations if prices keep going. The crop may not come up but acres will be seeded. Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 21:28 5 Rough translation

The Bolsa de Cereals of Buenos Aires issued its Agricultural Weekly Outlook (PAS) in which confirmed the critical scenario in which agricultural production is located due to the lack of rain.

On an initial estimate of 95 million tons of soybeans and corn harvested in September, based on historical yield projections, the current calculation fell to 89 million.

With regard to soybeans, the initial perspective of the port entity was 54 million tons: last week, it reduced the figure to 51 million and, yesterday, to 50 million. In the 2016/17 campaign, 57.5 million tons of the oilseed were harvested, which means that the current projection is for a production that will fall 13 percent in year-on-year terms.

As for corn, at the beginning of the campaign the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange imagined 41 million tons for commercial use, slightly surpassing the 39 million tons of the previous cycle. Now, he reduced his expectations also to 39 million; that is, at most, the current maize campaign would only tie the previous one, which was the best in history.


According to the Buenosairean Stock Exchange, the prolonged condition of water deficit continues to compromise the potential of yield to harvest, both in first lots that mostly pass through critical stages, and in second-tier tables that register significant delays in their development.

The entity adds that, during the last seven days, only rainfalls have been released in the NOA region, while in the center and south of the national agricultural region the absence of rain and high temperatures accelerate the loss of yield in first-class lots. and interrupt the development of the crop in second crops.

Since the report last week, only the NOA and NEA regions reported a water condition between adequate and optimum, even relieving excesses in specific areas of both areas, while in the rest of the agricultural region increased the proportion of area between regular and drought.

Specifically, over an area planted with 18 million hectares, 40 percent pass critical stages of yield generation and 76.1 percent is between drought and regular water condition.

The main factor continues to be the absence of rain, aggravated by high maximum temperatures, accelerating as a consequence the fall in the condition of the crop in first lots, which mostly pass critical stages (R3 onwards), while the surface of Second, at the moment, it only registers a strong delay in its development.

The yield losses will accelerate as the absence of rainfall continues and the proportion of batches moving through critical stages increases. At the moment, the climate report does not foresee an effective recovery of the current water deficit in the short or medium term.


A large part of the plots planted at an early date continue to fill grains under irregular water reserves, which would affect their yield potential in areas with a high productive weight such as the North and South Nuclei.

The Buenosairean entity finished the national sowing, in 5.4 million hectares with commercial destiny, and it emphasized that in the Nucleus North and South zones, it is expected that during the next weeks the harvest of the first lots that were implanted during the the month of September.

In the province of Córdoba, the humidity of the late lots is irregular, which is why rains are necessary in the coming days so that these crops do not lose their cultivation condition. Towards the zone of the Center-North of Santa Fe, the sowing of late lots and of second occupation culminated; while the collection of early paintings yields yields of around 50 quintals per hectare, with flats of 30 quintals.

Towards the NOA and NEA zones, the sowing of the cereal culminated, only subtracting the incorporation of specific lots. To date, most of the paintings pass phenological stages between emergence and leaf differentiation. Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 22:45 6
Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
Selling Nov canola right now has me more worked up than a high school kid at a strip club. I'm loving this near 510 level.
Feel free to tar and feather me 101

Iceman Out
Now why would I do that
Odds in your favour I'm thinking. This week will give more insight.
The lines in the chart are low confidence, but they are showing an ascending channel. Price action on Jan 17 and Feb 2 is interesting, but the move through the lower line at the end of 2017 is the driver right now. You do have stop loss in place? If not yes, I will tar and feather you....
Name:  RSX18 Feb 12 18.jpg
Views: 294
Size:  55.7 KB Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 23:49 7 Klause, do you have any eyes and ears on the ground who could substantiate what is happening down south? Reply With Quote
iceman's Avatar Feb 12, 2018 | 00:30 8 Always a stop in 101. Always

Iceman Out Reply With Quote