Stats Canada YES the report thats two months old.

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Stats Canada YES the report thats two months old.

SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 07:44 1 The reporting of this report is a joke and that hasn't changed since agriville has been going. They phone and girl takes info types it into the computer then the computer turns and turns and finally two months later you have the data. Ah does the grain companies get it about a day after they get it from us and then have time to plan for two months till it is finally issues i dont know its just so funny it takes forever to come out in 2017.

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Canadian farmers reported increased production of canola, soybean, oats and corn for grain in 2017, while wheat and barley production was lower than in 2016.

Despite producers' concerns of drought on the Prairies and heavier than average precipitation in parts of Eastern Canada this summer, farmers reported that yields have improved from their preliminary expectations reported in the July 2017 Farm Survey.

WHEAT
Total wheat production declined 5.5% to 30.0 million tonnes in 2017. Harvested area edged up from 2016 to 22.2 million acres, while average total wheat yield declined 3.6 bushels per acre to 49.6 bushels per acre.

In Alberta, wheat production edged up 0.8% to 10.0 million tonnes in 2017. This was the result of a 10.7% rise in harvested area to 7.0 million acres, while the average yield fell by 5.4 bushels per acre to 52.6 bushels per acre.

In contrast, farmers in Saskatchewan reported an 11.3% decline in production to 12.9 million tonnes. The drop was the result of a 10.8% decrease in average yield to 42.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area edged down 0.8% to 11.2 million acres in 2017.

Manitoba farmers reported that wheat production rose 3.6% to 4.4 million tonnes in 2017. Although harvested area declined 8.2% to 2.7 million acres, a 12.6% rise in average yield to 59.8 bushels per acre drove the production increase.

Yes total wheat was a better crop than i thought early on but as heads filled it looked promising in areas with moisture.

CANOLA
Canadian farmers reported producing 21.3 million tonnes of canola in 2017, up 8.7% from 19.6 million tonnes in 2016. This was the result of a record high harvested area of 22.9 million acres, up 14.1% from 2016. However, farmers reported a 4.9% decrease in average yield to 41.0 bushels per acre, down from the record high set in 2016.

Saskatchewan farmers reported a 4.7% increase in canola production from 2016 to a record high 11.2 million tonnes in 2017, the result of a record harvested area of 12.7 million acres (+14.2%). However, average yield fell 8.3% to 38.9 bushels per acre.

In Alberta, farmers reported a 10.9% increase in canola production from 2016 to 6.8 million tonnes. This was the result of a 17.8% rise in harvested acreage, as average yield fell 5.8% to 43.7 bushels per acre in 2017.

Manitoba farmers reported that canola production rose 20.7% to a record high 3.1 million tonnes. This was the result of a record average yield of 44.0 bushels per acre, up 12.8% from 2016, combined with a 6.9% increase in harvested area.

The area we seeded to canola was as high as almost 23 mill acres so even with lower production my initial summer guess hit the wrong number and final was 21 mill ton.

This was done not due to genetics but years of wet ground and thats what produced a crop in dry conditions. If 2018 is dry expect that number even with 25 mil acres to be below 20.

SOY
Nationally, soybean production reached a record high once again in 2017, up 17.8% from 2016 to 7.7 million tonnes. Average yield fell 11.5% to 39.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area reached a record high 7.3 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers reported record soybean production for the sixth consecutive year, up 26.9% from 2016 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2017. This was entirely the result of a 45.1% increase in harvested area to a record 2.3 million acres, while the average yield fell 12.6% from 2016 to 36.1 bushels per acre.

Ontario soybean growers reported a 12.5% production increase to a record high 3.8 million tonnes in 2017. Harvested area rose 13.3% to match the 2014 record high of 3.1 million acres, while average yield decreased 0.7% to 45.6 bushels per acre.

In Saskatchewan, where soybean harvested area more than tripled to 845,000 acres in 2017, farmers reported soybean production of 479 000 tonnes, up 276 500 tonnes from 2016. Meanwhile, Quebec producers reported a 1.3% production decrease to 1.1 million tonnes.

Because of the increase in seeded area soy went up 11.5 %

BARLEY AND OATS
Canadian farmers reported a 10.2% decrease in barley production to 7.9 million tonnes in 2017. This decline was the result of a 4.9% decrease in harvested area to 5.2 million acres, combined with a 5.4% drop in average yield to 69.4 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, Canadian farmers reported oats production rose 16.6% from 2016 to 3.7 million tonnes. The increase was attributable to a record high yield of 93.1 bushels per acre, combined with a 15.7% increase in harvested area to 2.6 million acres.

I said barley yields were down and oats were good on the later seeded.


So basically got the wheat up oats up and soy but missed the canola due to way higher seeded area. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 08:52 2 Look at that tiny droughted out swath, my condolences. Doesn't match at all what stats can is saying, does it?

No way stats can is right. After all when you look at seed companies yield data on plots ranging from only 50 to 80 bu, no way they are right.

BS. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 08:58 3 Maybe statscan finds the acres locally and applies the plot data to those acres.....then come up with the results they have. .... Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:04 4 larry was right?? Reply With Quote
ajl
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:16 5 This stats can report was just as irrelevant as all the others. Fire them all. Still too high on canola acres as there was a lot of unseeded in AB, most of which would have gone to canola. If this report was relevant, there would not be over $11 cash bid. Crop yields were disappointing in this area due to too wet early on, so there yields are likely slightly high, but it is a WAG anyways. Reply With Quote
fjlip's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 10:57 6 Canola and spring wheat futures fell after Canada revealed that its crops had been less affected than had been thought by dryness, with the canola crop upgraded to a record high – and to within an ace of being the world’s biggest.
StatsCan flagged that growing season dryness in the Prairies, the key growing region, had not wrought the harm to crops that had been expected.

“Despite producers’ concerns of drought on the Prairies, and heavier-than-average precipitation in parts of eastern Canada this summer, farmers reported that yields have improved from their preliminary expectations reported in the July 2017 farm survey,” officials said.

While wheat yields did fall 10.8% in the top growing state of Saskatchewan, and by some 7% in Alberta, they rose 12.6% in Manitoba.

Overall Canadian wheat output, which is mainly of spring wheat, was pegged at 29.98m tonnes, a drop of 5.5% on last year’s bumper harvest, but ahead of the 28.0m-tonne figure that investors had expected.

StatsCan’s July survey pegged the harvest at 25.54m tonnes, with its model-based analysis in September putting the crop at 27.13m tonnes.

For canola, the harvest was pegged at 21.31m tonnes, a rise of 1.71m tonnes year on year, and well ahead of investor expectations of a 20.2m-tonne crop.

The upgrade also took the harvest – which StatsCan modelling had estimated at 19.71m tonnes – to within an ace of the European Union rapeseed crop, the world’s biggest, which industry group Coceral earlier on Wednesday put at 21.9m tonnes.

The European Commission and analysis group Strategie Grains both estimate the EU rapeseed crop at 21.7m tonnes.

Cinderella will be the pumpkin...if your crop was reduced, it never made a difference, was cancelled out.
Same in USA, worst drought ever in 2012, only 8% smaller crop? Too much grain on earth boys!

This will really increase prices...
https://www.grainews.ca/2017/12/05/d...6fac0-88067685
Last edited by fjlip; Dec 6, 2017 at 11:01.
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Dec 6, 2017 | 11:10 7 When they called I told them I was gone fishing for a month. Wish now I would have told My yields might have helped lower the production. 😂😂
Happy to see most guys had a good crop. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 11:58 8 Does the canola number have any credibility?

Why are canola prices as good as they are?

Our crop and many many around us wasn't that good....and some worse! But Western Canada is a big area. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 12:47 9
Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
Canola and spring wheat futures fell after Canada revealed that its crops had been less affected than had been thought by dryness, with the canola crop upgraded to a record high – and to within an ace of being the world’s biggest.
StatsCan flagged that growing season dryness in the Prairies, the key growing region, had not wrought the harm to crops that had been expected.

“Despite producers’ concerns of drought on the Prairies, and heavier-than-average precipitation in parts of eastern Canada this summer, farmers reported that yields have improved from their preliminary expectations reported in the July 2017 farm survey,” officials said.

While wheat yields did fall 10.8% in the top growing state of Saskatchewan, and by some 7% in Alberta, they rose 12.6% in Manitoba.

Overall Canadian wheat output, which is mainly of spring wheat, was pegged at 29.98m tonnes, a drop of 5.5% on last year’s bumper harvest, but ahead of the 28.0m-tonne figure that investors had expected.

StatsCan’s July survey pegged the harvest at 25.54m tonnes, with its model-based analysis in September putting the crop at 27.13m tonnes.

For canola, the harvest was pegged at 21.31m tonnes, a rise of 1.71m tonnes year on year, and well ahead of investor expectations of a 20.2m-tonne crop.

The upgrade also took the harvest – which StatsCan modelling had estimated at 19.71m tonnes – to within an ace of the European Union rapeseed crop, the world’s biggest, which industry group Coceral earlier on Wednesday put at 21.9m tonnes.

The European Commission and analysis group Strategie Grains both estimate the EU rapeseed crop at 21.7m tonnes.

Cinderella will be the pumpkin...if your crop was reduced, it never made a difference, was cancelled out.
Same in USA, worst drought ever in 2012, only 8% smaller crop? Too much grain on earth boys!

This will really increase prices...
https://www.grainews.ca/2017/12/05/d...6fac0-88067685
wonder if they know how damaging this type of shit(100 bpa) is to market prices? or they just done care?? Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 12:50 10 The canola is still to high as why are a lot empty bins with canola this early in the year.

Unless you have the new load cells in your combine the southern sask bushel didn’t materialize.

Some were good some great and some oh well next year.

Down down down just what stats canada likes Reply With Quote
Partners's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 12:52 11 Cheap food for the world..
Just grow more and don't think about making money. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:09 12 If things are so tight not sure why so many were getting all upset about tax changes on profits over $200,000. Something doesn't add up? Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:27 13 I just want to know who is giving out their numbers? If you had a killer crop do you think the people on the other line really know anything. I know some like to make themselves sound like they are king tuts. I guess some get scared when they say it’s law. Now when prices start to collapse wonder how many of these guys are complaining? Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:31 14
Quote Originally Posted by bigzee View Post
I just want to know who is giving out their numbers? If you had a killer crop do you think the people on the other line really know anything. I know some like to make themselves sound like they are king tuts. I guess some get scared when they say it’s law. Now when prices start to collapse wonder how many of these guys are complaining?
they get SFA from me , and haven't been imprisoned yet? Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:33 15
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
If things are so tight not sure why so many were getting all upset about tax changes on profits over $200,000. Something doesn't add up?
think it was more the issue that a co. could take over your farm a lot cheaper tax wise than your own son that has helped you for 20 years Reply With Quote
Partners's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 13:35 16 Stats can has never called us.
Is it all guessed with satellites?...
Or do they just call the mega farms? Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:51 17
Quote Originally Posted by Partners View Post
Stats can has never called us.
Is it all guessed with satellites?...
Or do they just call the mega farms?
no , we're small potatoes , and they hound and threaten me constantly. you are one lucky guy !
i always tell them when they tell me what they're wage is, we can talk. none has . apparently thats personal and confidential Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 15:07 18 got caught on the last day of the survey, so just lowered my numbers a bit more but we were down as a result of the drought... Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 15:08 19 The market either doesn't believe this doesn't care or already had this priced in. Canola closed almost back to flat meanwhile soybean soy oil and soymeal closed down more relatively. Non event. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 15:13 20 Sorry guys, but we live in a technological era where they don't even have to ask you any more. Farmers do a good enough job paying to give all their data electronically to companies, satellites, drones....

Oh, but its just 7$ and acre..... They don't really use the data to...... Not MY data, its all wrong..... I don't have a SIM card so it can't send.......

and other silly naive replies. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 18:29 21
Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
Sorry guys, but we live in a technological era where they don't even have to ask you any more. Farmers do a good enough job paying to give all their data electronically to companies, satellites, drones....

Oh, but its just 7$ and acre..... They don't really use the data to...... Not MY data, its all wrong..... I don't have a SIM card so it can't send.......

and other silly naive replies.
exactly , so get rid of that useless govt liberal job creator
serious question , can our combine yield monitor with satellite for auto steer send any info ? Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 19:23 22
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
exactly , so get rid of that useless govt liberal job creator
serious question , can our combine yield monitor with satellite for auto steer send any info ?
Depends how new it is.

It can send a whole lot more than that if it is a jdlink or telematics capable machine.


They know when you changed oil. Acres and tons per hour. How many hrs a day you work.

How much fuel you burn. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 20:43 23
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
exactly , so get rid of that useless govt liberal job creator
serious question , can our combine yield monitor with satellite for auto steer send any info ?
Only the software developer knows for sure. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 21:32 24 Could some of you explain why you do not feel you should be providing yield information to statscan yet you complain there is no transparency in export sales, volumes, and prices? Why do you feel marketers and grain companies should be obligated to provide demand information but it is okay for farmers to refuse or even fudge their supply information?

Do you not feel it is important for governments to at least make an attempt to find markets for our grains, especially given most other grain exporting nation's governments are active promoters of their agricultural commodities including the USDA, Australia, European Commission, Brazil, Argentina, and especially Russia? Furthermore each of these with perhaps the exception of Russia provide government estimates of production. I put forward it is important for governments to know what their farmers have to sell if they are to promote sales opportunities. And it is extremely important when dealing with countries which have state buyers, especially China and other Asian countries which are our best markets.

You complain about the railroads and government not forcing them to provide service but unless you are willing to tell governments how much service is needed each year as a function of volume to be moved, you are tying the hands of regulators and giving the railroads a free pass to only provide as much service as they feel like providing. Reply With Quote
blackpowder's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 21:53 25 Its not up to govts to sell. They facilitate market at best.
A better handle on #s is out there. It doesnt have to be cloud.
The rr issue fixes itself as best it can as long as users pay somehow.
Grass, ive never had a line 150 near 200k and yet you still sound ferret-like. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 21:58 26
Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
Could some of you explain why you do not feel you should be providing yield information to statscan yet you complain there is no transparency in export sales, volumes, and prices? Why do you feel marketers and grain companies should be obligated to provide demand information but it is okay for farmers to refuse or even fudge their supply information?

Do you not feel it is important for governments to at least make an attempt to find markets for our grains, especially given most other grain exporting nation's governments are active promoters of their agricultural commodities including the USDA, Australia, European Commission, Brazil, Argentina, and especially Russia? Furthermore each of these with perhaps the exception of Russia provide government estimates of production. I put forward it is important for governments to know what their farmers have to sell if they are to promote sales opportunities. And it is extremely important when dealing with countries which have state buyers, especially China and other Asian countries which are our best markets.

You complain about the railroads and government not forcing them to provide service but unless you are willing to tell governments how much service is needed each year as a function of volume to be moved, you are tying the hands of regulators and giving the railroads a free pass to only provide as much service as they feel like providing.
the railroads don't give a f$&k about you or me or the govt . proved this in 2013 ??. all statscan report is used for is to drop the market for a while , until usda comes out . do you actually think sask crop is that big with all the challenges there was this year . what the f$&k would we need rain for ??? all that report is for is to give more govt useless jobs . didn't you pay attention to all the bullshit that was spewn last fall when a third of the crop was out . proof was in the pudding when wheat hit $9 and canola $12 . and canola sure as f&$k wouldn't be $11.50-$11.80 right now if it was the canola crop they say it is . people need to wake up . you go ahead and waste your time with that outdated piece of shit , I won't
Last edited by caseih; Dec 6, 2017 at 22:02.
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farmaholic's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 22:08 27 NDVI
Drones
Satellite imagery
Boots on the ground
Crop Insurance reports
Agristability reports AGRI1
Terminal receipts
Port records. ....


And they can't figure out yearly production or yeild trends over years of data?

I think they know more than you think.

The information collected by machines and "technology" is used to market against us....not for us.
Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 6, 2017 at 22:13.
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Dec 6, 2017 | 22:08 28
Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
Its not up to govts to sell. They facilitate market at best.
A better handle on #s is out there. It doesnt have to be cloud.
The rr issue fixes itself as best it can as long as users pay somehow.
Grass, ive never had a line 150 near 200k and yet you still sound ferret-like.
I am not saying it should be up to the governments to sell. But all of our competitor nations governments are flagging ag commodities so if we are to be competitive I think it is necessary for our government to put an equal effort to what other governments do.

And where are the better numbers? The grain trade itself? Likely, but they will not even provide sales information that farmers need. Do you really think they are going to provide farmers with credible information as to supply? They want to buy as cheap as possible so definitely not going to provide supply information that might keep farmers bins shut.

To your third point, I am not sure that farmers can afford to pay the same freight rate that RRs charge for movement of oil, or consumer goods. Efficiency comes with movement consistant movement throughout the year but that is not how grain sales work and we certainly do not have terminal storage to handle surges and ebbs in demand or supply. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 22:27 29
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
NDVI
Drones
Satellite imagery
Boots on the ground
Crop Insurance reports
Agristability reports AGRI1
Terminal receipts
Port records. ....


And they can't figure out yearly production or yeild trends over years of data?

I think they know more than you think.

The information collected by machines and "technology" is used to market against us....not for us.
Farmers complain about how slow stats can information is... we would not get a crop estimate for 20 months after harvest if we waited for agstabiltity records. Crop insurance would be another nightmare given a fed agency would have to collect data from 10 provincial government agencies.

And you complain about the intrusion of stats can phoning, I can just imagine the complaining if government people starting walking though fields for yield estimates not to mention the uproar over government spying on farmers if they gathered yield data with drones or other technology. And this does not even touch on the cost of collection using technology which on a prairie wide basis would be much higher than phone surveying.

And I really get a kick out of you thinking companies would freely give up their data to government. They are not like farmers who willingly pay for technology which provides tonnes of data to third parties for free and farmers are not even aware their data is being uploaded.

Yes there are lots of other ways to get information but will that information be available to farmers and at what cost if it even is? Like it or not, stats can yields are a check and balance against grain companies using inside information to sway the market against the farmer because they have way more information and power in the market than farmers ever will Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 22:45 30 dml....damn your quick and with good arguments.

My inclusion of Ag-Stab was to compliment the "yield trend" comments. Crop Insurance data would be pretty current...a press of a key would likely "send" information.

Don't GrainCos have to report elevator receipts and port shipments to the CGC. Current and past information of stocks and available space can be calculated from that data.

"Spying".....too late, lots of "intelligence" is already available and collected. And I really don't believe that Gov Depts don't share info.

Maybe its more about knowing and being able to control the world's most valuable under valued "COMMODITY"! Hahahaha. Reply With Quote