While funds are short is there any hope for a turnaround?

[malleefarmer]

Market sentiment wont change in short term it seems?
Errol?

[Agvocate]

Funds being short wheat/corn pays all day. Market is in a deep carry and just staying short and rolling to the next futures month makes money. Front month doesn't have to go lower the market can stay sideways with the farther out calendar months gravitating to the near by and it's a great return for a fund. The most concerning thing I see in the COT is the length in beans. Supply remains high, US has had 3 straight crops that have deviated farther above trendline yields than any time in the last 100 years, and bean basis is historically weak at export to deal with that. If the funds start to flip over to the short side in oilseeds and add to it, could be an ugly move lower. The silver lining appears to be that demand is keeping up better for oilseeds than it is in the grains. Hopefully enough to keep the funds somewhere close to home in beans.

[danny W1M]

malle, shouldn't the bean line in the chart be "8218 bought" rather than "8218 sold" ???
Just an observation, as it's referring to "Change"

[errolanderson]

Funds are long cattle and beans, short corn and wheat. USDA report next week might jar funds out of wheat and corn shorts. If it does, volatility will suddenly spike. Grain volatility is too quiet, but that will change.

[farmgal71]

When does South American crop news start to influence grain prices? Is that why traders think prices are going to move lower? Is that what this means?

[HappyFarmer]

When does South American crop news start to influence grain prices? Is that why traders think prices are going to move lower? Is that what this means?

Everyone is watching S.A. right now but the "weather" market doesn't really start until December at the earliest.

Agree with both Eroll and Agvoacate. I cant see any big change in wheat or corn positions in the near futures. But I agree that soybeans could be the most vulnerable the longs exiting.

I still believe that one of the biggest problems in our ag market is money flows at the moment. There really isn't anything sexy about playing in these markets. The supply/demand fundamentals in our major crops don't look like a appealing place for the big fund money to play. Generally everything looks either well balanced or bearish. The stock market is WAY more appealing place right now. No doubt there will come a day when they will be back, but I cant see that happening anytime in the near future.