US Soy Oil Numbers

[rain]

Charlie I have been watching soyoil prices and actual exports for soyoil. commitment to soyoil to date is 178.9 compared to 439.0 last year.

Accumulated exports are 106.2 compared to 390.0.

The soyoil use numbers to me look terrible and looks like demand is just not there. Why is the soyoil futures so robust when actual demand appears so poor.

[charliep]

US domestic vegoil demand has remained relatively strong in spite of the higher prices. This is reducing the availability of soyoil for export when combined with last years smaller US soybean crop. February forecast US soyoil exports are 850 mln lbs in 2003/04 versus 1.84 bln lbs. in 2002/03 and 2.52 bln lbs. in 2001/02.

For those that are interested, the actual USDA numbers can be found at:

http://jan.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2004/

With appologizies for throwing more numbers out, you can also use the AAFRD crops weekly numbers to guage what is going on with regards to US soybean demand rationing.

http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/stats/wkgrain.html (see bottom of the page).

Both US crush and exports are running at the same pace as 2002/03. The forecast for 2003/04 says that the pace of disappearance has to slow by 10 % versus last year. The way to slow things down is via higher prices (or imports).

A final note is the issues around impact of soybean rust in South America. It would appear soybean meal can be imported into the US but possibly not soybeans. If the US imports soymeal versus soybeans, this will result in less soyoil being produced domestically.

A final comment is we shouldn't under estimate the decline in the value of the US dollar relative to other currencies on affordability in importers eyes/competitiveness with exporters.