February 10 - USDA Monthly Report Day

[charliep]

USDA put out their monthly numbers today. Information can be found at:

http://jan.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2004/

Somewhat positive grains. Neutral oilseeds (still tight US soybeans with demand needing to be rationed).

I will be watching how the US handles rust situation out of South America. Still in risk accessment stage with soybeans kept out/soymeal allowed in. Likely to tighten US soyoil supplies.

Thoughts on market strategies?

[crusher]

I've been a patient holder of canola until this week and sold 1/3 of old crop. Some was sold before the statscan stocks report - just in case of bearish news and I sold more once it hit key resistance levels this week. I'll sell more at the key $400 level and then hold the last 10% for BIG MONEY. I've got basis booked for all old crop and my harvest needs. Sold some Nov canola yesterday and have a Cargill specialty contract therefore have decent hedges for this time of year.

Peas - nervous with the Avian flu so am trying to get $5.00 for my peas, selling 1/2 of my inventory. I will be growing the usual acreage in 2004, because I can't grow canola everywhere. This will go unhedged until in the bin.

CPS - took your advise and went with the EPO on Series B, good thing because KC wheat has tanked, hopefully it will hold at resistance.

Can$ - Was going to put in a buy order for 74.20 June, but never got around to it, my biggest screwup lately. Not sure when to get in now.

Barley - Sitting on 1/2 of my 2003 crop, a) waiting for the board to capture some of the upswing in the export market due in corn strength and b) working on some premium markets.

New crop barley scares me so I don't plan on growing any. Those swing acres will get CPS, likely 5700PR with a board contract.

What I would like to find is the latest Canadian S & D tables. The ones at "Ropin the Web" are dated December, are these the latest?

[melvill]

There are other S & D tables available from the Ag Canada site at

http://www.agr.gc.ca/mad-dam/e/index2e.htm

When you get there click on Canada Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for their S & D's.

They won't necessarily be the same as Ropin' but they'll give the same general direction.

While you're there look at the latest issue of the Bi-Weekly Bulletin for Ag Can's initial acreage forecasts for 2004.

[charliep]

I have to update sometime this week. Won't be big changes.