March 04 Canola???

[AdamSmith]

A few weeks ago I signed a $28 March under basis contract for 200t of Canola delivery to Agricore United in SW MB.

I didn't sell outright but put in orders to price out 100t at $380 March and the other 100t at $390 March.

March came oh so close today to $380, but not quite. I'm pretty confident that March will go to $380 before I have to price out (Feb.20) but with this lethargic canola market I'm not so sure about my $390 target.

It's very frustrating seeing beans at $8.50 and Bean oil at 30 cents and knowing Canola should be around $425 or more. Yet the Canola market just isn't reacting to the strong Chicago oilseed sector.

Ocean freight... Shmocean freight

Will canola join in the rally or not?

Any thoughts?

[crusher]

When the market is very close to your GPO and you happen to be on top of the market (which it appears you are), I would suggest you sell at the market and cancel your $380 GPO. The last few pennies is not worth the worry or risk.

Looking at the charts, it looks pretty thick (next resistance level) at March $385 - $390. The $390 GPO is at the top end of this level. I would suggest you drop it down to $388, you might have a better chance of a fill.

[AdamSmith]

crusher,

I didn't take your advice earlier in the week, but after the very strong close today, $377.9 March, up $12.30/t, I did exactly as you suggested and pulled the trigger on 100t @ $377.9 less the basis for a pit price of $7.94/bu.

If we see follow through Monday, I still have the other 100t to work with.

Just trying to be disciplined with my marketing plan, yet be flexible enough to make adjustments when called for.