So what's up with wheat"

[Hopalong]

Hope new Alberta govt does not get too caught up in union supported idea of local value added ahead of free trade as with idea of refining oil at home rather than exporting.
Over the years, Alberta has been a strong proponent of trade rather than protectionism.
Other provinces can thank it for leadership in this area.

[charliep]

I wouldn't second guess what will happen on oil policy in Alberta. I also agree in the case of wheat, it would be difficult to attract a mega flour mill or these days wheat based ethanol plant for the reasons farmaholic indicated. When the opportunities likely exist are for smaller focused value adding wheat processors. Example is a contact with a pasta plant that was struggling to find semi lina produced from organic durum. The opportunities are to shore up the supply chain by having a smaller flour mill that would develop relationships with farmers and provide the pasta plant the semi lina they require.

Easy for a government guy to come up with these ideas but these are the things that could happen.

Way off topic. Perhaps to the title question, wheat is a commodity in a very competitive world.

[Hopperbin]

Charlie I would think wheat competes with rice. Rice is also in the gutter. Is there any indications of rice coming back up any time?

[foragefarmer]

Charlie

"I have to ask the question why everyone continues to grow wheat for export. Why are there not more opportunities to process wheat domestically?"

I though in your opinion ( as Ab. Ag. Employee) when the CWB had the monopoly it was hampering domestic millers from getting established or increasing value added.

Now you ask the question?

[charliep]

Hopperbin

Don't follow rice. A comment that commodities in general and crops in general have suffered the same fate price wise. Will note there are begginning of talk about El Nino. Need something to break the bearish sentiment in the market.

Foragefarmer - A tough question for a civil servant in a time of change. As you have highlighted in the past, the world has changed so the discussion is kinda irrelevant at this time.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree with the markets Bearish sentiment. Hell even on a day the market should get excited it goes limp.
We have to be near a bottom soon. Looking for next .60 to .70 cent rise and lock in fall production on increase if it happens on some more production.

[foragefarmer]

Charlie

"the world has changed so the discussion is kinda irrelevant at this time".

Ya but you were one of the loudest promoting change, I guess that was easier to do. Now that it's done and nothing is happening as all the predictions, you say it irrelevant. Oh, I forgot you were just following orders!!!

[farmaholic]

Not to pick sides. But I don't think it will happen either. Besides if it does has enough time passed for anything to get started? Feasibility studies and such. Mind you the new CWB got at it and built some terminals, not value adding but shows things can happen.

Sad part is the processors likely wouldn't pay more than world price backed off to the prairies anyway...lol.

[westernvicki]

Just a reminder that hungry world is waiting for 2050.

[Hopperbin]

Forage get with the times. The world is changing. Get used to it. Work with it.

[furrowtickler]

If prices continue to slide , I will be waiting for someone to slide me $400,000 a 1/4....
F.. it , it will not be worth the stress to break even while the rest of the industry continues to roll in huge profits of our backs.

[farming101]

Well, I know this isn't going to make anyone jump for joy but it looks like a short covering type of pop in the Kansas wheat is under way.
Large specs are way short and likely will lighten up their position.
Spring wheat will likely not participate to the same extent, but maybe the bottom is in?

[foragefarmer]

Hopperbin

No worries here, read the price signals on wheat and have reduced seeded acres drastically this year. So could careless about the changing times, I have adjusted just fine. I have realized many years ago, wheat is not a big money maker.

Hopper, how about you, what have you done to prepare yourself for the changing times and these great prices? Is wheat making you any kind of return on investment theses days? Is your wheat moving, are the USA and Cdn buyers knocking at your door, arbitrage working well for you, mills being built near you? Let me guess your answers no,no,no,no,no,.

As for me questioning Charlie, he's a big boy let's here from him on the issue. He was very vocal before, yapping it up here on Agriville. Like I said everything should be peaches and cream in this new marketing environment.

[TOM4CWB]

Forage... For a troll you sure do know your markets!

I for one... Am very thankful that Charlie still adds wisdom from time to time... Forage pulling wisdom teeth seems more your forte... even though by your own admission you don't grow the crop!

Cheers!

[charliep]

Trying to highlight today's market stuff, I am going to post the monthly nearby MGEX and KCBT futures charts. Will note prices have come a long ways.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWN15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=M"]MGEX monthly[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=KEN15&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=M'>KCBT monthly</a>

I will also note a pretty significant rally in wheat futures in recent days. This weeks USDA report provided the first look at 2015/16 supply demand balances. 2015 world wheat pretty much equaling consumption based on knowledge today. I suspect these markets are bottoming but that needs to seen.

I would hope most everyone here has at least 75 % of their old crop sold/priced. Always a tough slug to move prices higher over the summer - winter wheat harvest in Northern hemisphere countries means a lof wheat available and seasonal lows. Need to watch HRW harvest progress and yields.

Sorry foragefarmer. Would much rather talk about market outlook/strategies.