Agriculture 1984, 1994 to 2004

[Muttley]

My how farming has changed in the last 20 years! Larger farms, less residents, higher expenses, few jobs.

What do you all predict for the next 20 years? I see much more of the same but, I do believe there will be a point when urban dwellers will sit back and say that they should not have taken us for granted. So many think their food comes from the grocery store.
We can not all work in the oil field, or run a business in town or city, what will happen to this world, what will happen to us. One of my fears is one of my children may want to farm.

We have all said "there is nothing like farming" 20 years ago my farming dreams were much different than today!!!

[dougg]

Just had to post to you question as I have been pondering the
same question.
Basic I see the end to farming as we how in now in the next
20 years. Reason as follow:
1 money; If you look at the exponential curve of capital
require in the last 20 year and project in forward an
operational farm will require 250 million to 500million
in capital. The only source will some sort of public
trade company.
2 food source identity; This will require all food to be
produced by very few very large companies, which will
require complete control of every thing done to grow and
market anything used to food production.

I heard a comment on a business program a few years ago
the said food production was the last great source for
generation shareholder wealth, but to do this there needed to
be a lot few company that had control of the total production
base. If grain production survives in western Canada is
will be in the form of a few massive operations close to
the main raillines, run out of eastern Canada or US with a lot
of low pay seasonal workers.

[carebear300]

I will relate a bit of personal history to sort of put everything into perspective. In 1975 we purchased a brand new 125 h.p. tractor with all the bells and whistles for 24,700 dollars, fertilizer was worth about 140 per tonne, and wheat was over 5 dollars per bushel. Now just about thirty years later you would be hard pressed to buy a 125 h.p. tractor for under 125,000 dollars, fertilizer will be about 500 dollars per tonne next spring and wheat is less than 4 dollars a bushel. There is a limit to how efficent anybody can become. Things will either change for the better on the income side or the changes you envisage will come a whole lot sooner than you may think.

[cowman]

I see the trend continuing, that has been taking place for the last thirty years. How long this will be sustainable I don't know as we have become an industry of old men...at least in my area.
I have a hard time getting a real picture of agriculture because of the area I live in. Land prices are so high that it is hard to justify any type of agricultural activity on it. The oil and gas activity has pumped untold millions into our area and farmers have benifitted from it and used that money to continue what are basically losing businesses. The rich playboy is slowly becoming the dominant player here.
I hate to blame everything on the government but they "allowed" a lot of things to take place that have led to our problems. Their abdication of what should have been their responsibilities is perhaps their greatest sin. Failing to protect our rights on the world stage has been a biggie! Ending the Crow was a death blow for Western Agriculture. Bowing to American pressure on just about everything out there has not been helpful. Allowing our Ag Industries to be bought up by American corporations has taken away their ability to guide the farm economy where they might want it to go, for the vitality of our farm population and rural communities. As the years go by all the little prairie towns are dying and the lights are going out on the prairies. It is a pretty sad thing when you consider it.

[Muttley]

When you talk of our farm population getting older sure rings a bell here at home. I am near 40 and have been home farming or what have you for over 20 years. I am still considered one of the "young ones" around this area. This past couple of years has seen myself and many other go to our off farm jobs to stay.

In 1983 when I started my brother and I farmed about 3000 acres, 100 plus cows, up to a 1000 head feedlot. It was then my dad wanted to retire so I decided to go farming. Farming has changed alot since then. I now run 60 cows and rent out what land I own. My brother went back to school for a degree, he never has looked back and is doing well. I however have chosen to stay in my home community and take a position on in equipment/manufacturing sales.

My decision allows my children to grow up close to family and in a small community. Somedays I think we would have been better off in the city, but I do feel my kids will need to leave as my town is dieing. We do have some bright spots in it but overall down the road I see it getting smaller.

[ValueChainFX]

Check out my post in beef production under multi-nationals and post your thoughts?

[lakenheath]

Dougg,

Your comments are depressing. I don't believe multi-nationals will ever be able to farm. You take a look at most multi-national business structures and there are non similar to farming.

[cowman]

lakenheath: Of course the multinationals will be able to farm! Once they get control of the food production they will start to squeeze both ends, the supplier of inputs and the consumer. Although they are probably also the supplier, so I guess that just leaves the consumer!
If this ever happens you will see food go way up, probably in the 10X range. You know sort of like gas and utilities? And of course since they control the government what can you do?
Globalization means in reality we all sink to the lowest level...at least us peasant types. So get ready to live in a mud hut and eat rice or in our case probably boiled barley!

[pandiana]

I think Dougg's vision is 20:20

[carebear300]

I am pleasantly surprised that most people have at last developed my cynicism in the trust of big corporations and government. Most of these new fantastic theories are in reallity the same old philosophy that the big corporations practiced in the industrial revolution. Maximun profits and the hell with anything or anybody else. The trouble is that our law makers haven't realized it yet and will have to go through an age old process that my history professor quite simply explained to me years ago. " If you are not wllling to read history and learn from it you are destined to have to relive it."

[Muttley]

I brought up this discusion at coffee row as well. One comment that got me thinking was this.
With the trend to off farm jobs and folks moving to the "country", we may see more and more smaller farms starting up again. People need more income and this may result in smaller farms, it could be more for income than for a hobby.
I think this comment has some merit, and perhaps we will see this in some area's.

[cakadu]

Muttley - my husband and I were having the same discussion in the past couple of days - maybe this will help us move away from big farms and back to those that were self-sufficient because what they did was fill the domestic supply. We weren't worried about being big enough to compete globally because it was a noble cause to feed our own country and make sure we didn't starve - first.

We seem to have really bought into this notion of feeding the world, when in reality we should be looking after our own.

In recent years we've seen a push to bigger is better, but I think we are beginning to see that ain't necessarily so. If you can't make money on 2,000 acres - you won't make it on 4,000. Yes there are such things as economies of scale, but they eventually have a limit and then efficiency decreases.

As we've gotten bigger, margins are getting thinner - if they exist at all - we're forced to do more and more at another's bidding - is it what we really want?

Recent events have shown us that we should become self-sufficient. I wonder about sending our resources elsewhere when in time, we are going to need them ourselves. At present we act as if everything is going to continue to be there in the future - is it really?

We won't ever go back to the days when there were more farmers on the land and rural areas were more populated, but I don't think that having these huge farms - whether they be owned by companies or by family units - is or has been the way to go. Where will we find that happy medium and what will it look like?

[boone]

cowman: multi-nationals can farm all right but they can't vote (yet) so governments pander to them for three years and the electorate for one year every political cycle. The trick is to bring them (multi) to bare when the time is in the peoples favour. I too have been taking stock in my community and it is going to be another hard winter of attrition. We won't have to worry about political landscape soon it will be a desert. I'm moved to record it as Steinbeck did. New Wrath same old G****s. Any way "LIFE is Either a DARING ADVENTURE or Nothing"-Helen Keller

[cowman]

Boone I like that "winter of attrition". That is definitely a good description of what is happening. If our pool of farmers was perhaps twenty years younger they might put up a better fight. It is discouraging to see our small towns dying and our rural population either dying or moving away. Sort of like the bumper stickers you used to see around "Would the last one out of Saskatchewan, please turn off the lights".
There is no solution really. Our governments just let things slide for too long. No real public support like there is in Europe. We are like the last free Indians about to be sent to the reserve. I guess that is progress?

[enough]

Indians should never have been put on the reserve. If farmers took better care of nature they would not be in this problem now. All they do is **** the land and scare wildlife and want me and other taxpayers to bail them out.