Where's it headed?

[burnt]

What are your thoughts on the impact on cattle numbers with grains hitting all-time highs?

There are feeder and finishing barns emptying out here with no plans to refill. These are people who feed cattle as habitually as they eat and breathe. There is a real short hay crop here down east and a lot of corn is only going to make silage.

I'm sure that you've heard the expression that expensive feed makes for expensive cattle, or that cheap feed doesn't make money.

[Horse]

Out here in the hinterlandsa of Alta there is a lot less cows and I dont see them coming back. To much work and the population is to old.
With the switch to chemical farming and larger machines and cheap rent on acount of a lot of us are not ready to sell so we take low rent so we dont have to make that big decision and the facilities start to fall apart, but when the sale sigh goes up and the renters have to shell out big bucks to keep enough acres to keep him and monsanto and sherit and J D all eating it will be interesting .

[smcgrath76]

It will be interesting the next while.
Those who can add weight at a lower cost
may benefit in the marketplace come
spring. There will be a lot of
cows/early weaned calves driven out of
the US herd this fall. That may play to
drive down calf prices here when
combined with the cost of feed and a
high $. Long term I see the US
reduction resulting in a stronger demand
for replacements, but it might hold off
a year or two longer than planned.
I don't think we will see the euphoria
of last fall, and there may even be some
buys on cows coming up.

[15444]

Most are short of feed around here. Lots being bought and sold. This year will clean up any old hay left over from other years. Guys are looking at the 20 poor quality bales put up and left at the edge of the back forty field, 4 years ago, and drooling.

Yearlings are on the verge of moving in big numbers. Lots of people hauling water (including me) and they are sick of it. Pastures are decimated in most places. Reps from one of the major yards in Manitoba are running around here with their trucks. "Not enough cattle left in Manitoba to carry the yards through anymore".

Anybody who bought feeders this spring is hoping to break-even, I think most have written off any profit.

Lots of older guys slowing down and can see a lot of land up for rent in the next 2-3 years. Already had one guy tell me to buy his cows and rent his land. I am short of feed this year so no more cows, but will keep it in mind. I can think of two other producers who will likely ask me the same in the next few years.

Hay land is being rolled over for corn and soybeans.

[SADIE]

In our area south of Saskatoon in the Lake Diefenbaker area the same thing.

Seeing a cow-herd is fewer and farther between.

As predicted.

[ALLFARMER]

Best hay area I see is in Doc Weders area. Richie
bros sold bales in Grande Prairie area for I heard
15$ ea. I just bought 170 for 60$ delivered. From
Fairview north then east (around the scales)
major hay crop everywhere. This is an area I sold
bales to 2 yrs ago. No hay at home to put up so
making $550/day low bedding cheers

[kato]

There's no shortage of feed here, but there is a shortage of cattle. I can see the auction marts getting worried. We've gotten a few rains that came just in time, and they've kept things going.

We also have a dry dugout, but were either smart enough, or had the dumb luck to not buy feeders this summer. It would have been scarey enough buying feed for them without having to buy water too.

[ASRG]

So ALLFARMER, I have to ask.....how can anyone sell round hay bales for $15? Why would anyone bother growing it?
Alberta Ag says yield for alphalfa/brome is about 3 tons in the best zones? If the bales are 1300 lbs we are not talking more than a little over 1 cent a pound? How does anyone run machinery over that land at that price.......let alone any fertilizer or seeding costs...let alone any kind of return on investment?

[kato]

To buy 15 dollar hay here, it would have to be several years old, black, rained on many times, and likely mouldy.

[ALLFARMER]

Richie Bros auction in Grande Prairie. No one
new they were being sold and in that area
absolutely no one needs hay. Deals can be had if
you go to enough auction sales

[ALLFARMER]

Bad spelling in previous post...'knew' they were
being sold. Went on RBI website / auction results,
couldn't find the bales but found a Schuler 220
silage wagon that looked near new that sold for
$500 now that's cheap.

[ALLFARMER]

JD 9600 for 35000
Caseih 9370 quad for 32 000 another 9370 quad
went 42000

[ALLFARMER]

JD 9600 for 35000
Caseih 9370 quad for 32 000 another 9370 quad
went 42000