T-Man's Points

[smcgrath76]

T-man makes some interesting points at the end of the "Do you remember" thread.
A couple of the good ones are regarding the feedlot model, and the issue of extended season
grazing.
I would be interested to hear comments about these 2 areas, and what some potential visions
for the future of the feeding/finishing industry might look like, and current things people
are doing to extend their grazing seasons.
I suspect the feeding industry is somewhat entrenched for the next several years for a
couple of reasons - large investment and equity, cash flow and tax planning issues (for
owners of feedlots and owners of cattle) and the capital investment of alternative finishing
systems.
The grazing thing interests me for many personal reasons and also because I know there are a
lot of climates represented on the site, and I would call "BS" on the "you can't do that
here!" argument.

[ASRG]

I don't do swath grazing or bale grazing.
I think often people don't pencil in "loss of use" when doing swath grazing?
Let's face it, if you can grow canola on the land you swath graze, it's kind of a no brainer?
The latest "new idea" is a crop rotation "roundup ready canola"- "cereal"- "liberty link canola"- "cereal".
If they every figure out how to eliminate clubroot, the economics will change even more?
When feed barley is over $5 and canola $14.....those 2 or more acres/cow (if you could swath graze all winter) might be the most expensive feed you'll ever feed?
Many of the new canola varieties are hitting that 55-60 bu/acre regularily....at $14 that is a gross of $770-$840? Feed barley at $5 X 90 bu is $450.On a three year rotation (cereal-cereal-canola) that still works out to close to $583 gross? A general rule of thumb is about 40% for all inputs...leaving a profit for your land at about $350/acre....if you swath graze 2/acres/cow it costs $700?
Now maybe my math is all wrong here or something? Maybe it only works in a sure crop area?
I can buy fairly decent hay for 3 cents a pound. I can buy decent straw for 1.5 cents a pound. If I feed half and half that is 52.5 cents/cow.day for hay and 26.25 cents /cow/day for a total of about 79/day/cow?
If we go 200 days that works out to $158/cow/winter feeding period?
Of course I have to own and start a tractor or feeding truck or whatever?
If we instead swath graze what does that cost us? If we want production we still have to use fertilizer, decent seed, and spray? Is 6000 lb./acre a realistic production? 6000 lb equals enough feed to feed that cow 171 days(I would suggest for swath grazing to work they had better be cleaning it all up, right to the dirt!)....and I have the added cost of fertilizer/spray/seed/seeding costs/swathing costs? True I don't have the cost of the tractor......but I do have the fun of moving and keeping electric fences working at-40!
I looked at this years ago and came to the conclusion there was no way I could afford it!

[grassfarmer]

To the original post - I agree very much with tmans
ideas. The feedlot system is a horrible system in
many ways - and remember the net profitability per
animal over several decades has been around -$7 a
head. I think it is a particularly flawed model on a
nutrient and wealth transfer basis. Areas likes mine
are ideally suited to grass production but very
marginal for grain. Instead of shipping weaned calves
from here to stand in CFOs on the Oldman and S.
Saskatchewan river basins with the risk of water
pollution and nutrient overload they would be better
off grazing either until they are fat or at least heavy
weight feeders. This would leave behind more fertility
here where it's needed and also increase the
production value of the land here which in turn would
generate more wealth in diverse rural communities. I
don't think anyone should be using irrigated land to
grow feed for the feedlot system - that's an
extravagance the world can ill afford. The whole
feedlot model of production is built on fossil fuels
and as such is unsustainable in my opinion.

ASRG made some good points but I think they are
really for another discussion(s). One would be the
merits of swath grazing or bale grazing as production
practices and whether people are implementing them
without doing their arithmetic properly first (I tend to
agree) The second is the general "horn versus corn"
debate relative to land use. I would say though that
you are painting a best case scenario for canola.
Some got $14/bu last year, not all by any means and
it could be $8.50 just as easily as farmers have no
control of that. With 25kg bags of seed over $500
each, the need for rain to germinate it, the need for
no frost or you face a costly reseed makes it a high
risk crop, a risk I note that Monsanto does not share
with farmers. They will sue you if you harvest a
volunteer crop or one that got polluted by a
neighbours seed but if your crop gets frozen you are
out of luck - buy more seed.

[kato]

Posted this on the do you remember thread, then I read this one. It belongs here.

As for the feedlots..

I agree about the feedlot thing, with a few modifications. Looking at those big huge multi-thousand head lots has always made me think of them as glorified outdoor hog barns. Basically it's the same principle, only exposed to the weather. Pack 'em in, stuff their faces, and get them out. In the meantime they're mixed with strangers and dealing with sicknesses, and stress.

However there will always have to be somewhere to finish cattle. The best cow calf land is not always near or suited to a good supply of grain, assuming one wants grain fed beef. Not everyone wants to finish cattle either. Maybe a better way to get that grain fed beef would be to bring in some way of risk management that would make it more appealing for smaller farm feedlots to feed cattle again, like they used to. We background calves, but have no access to any kind of risk management other than Agstability, and we all know how good that is. We can't lock anything in, since we don't have the numbers to be able to do it. We just have to jump in with two feet and risk the farm with every batch, so to speak. It takes the fun out of it, that's for sure.

As well, smaller groups of cattle over larger areas are much more sustainable, IMHO. Better to have fifty locations feeding the cattle than one. That's fifty more operations buying local grain over a larger area. Fifty operations supporting ten or fifteen veterinarians, instead of one on staff at one location. Fifty operations buying supplies in ten or fifteen towns are better than one.

I just don't buy into the bigger is better mentality. Economics of scale is one thing, but there's a point where the benefit starts to be solidified in one set of hands to the detriment of the industry as a whole. I don't think it's sustainable. Sooner or later, something will give, and what happens then?

The more players involved in food production, the safer the food supply is in general.

As for the extended grazing..

We graze corn. We don't have a lot of grain land, but we do have enough to give the cows almost four months of grazing. And still calve early. We don't lose any sleep about how much we could have made on canola either, since the amount of land involved wouldn't make or break anything anyway. We don't even enjoy growing crops, so why would we want to do it? We like growing cattle, so that's what we'll do.

[ASRG]

canola today at Red Deer $14.14/bu. From the Alberta Ag site.
Neighbor sold 52 lb. 2 row copeland barley at the bin last week $5.50/bu. to a feedlot down south.
Just saying.

[smcgrath76]

ASRG - you make some good points about
opportunity costs (That's why cows are
disappearing). We swath graze and
average 160 AUGD per acre. No
fertilizer, no spray, just cultivating,
seeding and cutting. We don't waste
much as any waste sprouts and is used
for early spring grazing. We aren't set
up for growing grain, and don't have an
interest in it anyway, so we face a
different opportunity decision.
The gross on an acre of grainland is
better, but depending on how it is done
and economies of scale the risk and net
may not be any better.
I believe in being aware of costs and
opportunities, but I don't worry about
the fact that my land is worth X times
more than when it was purchased. That
is only realizable value if/when you
decide to sell it. The part that
matters is what you paid for it and the
cash flow needs that creates. I think
more land is going to continue to go
into grain, but those of us that remain
in cattle either wholly or mixed farming
are going to have to figure out cheaper
grazing alternatives year round. As an
example, I think if we grain farmed in
addition to cows I would probably own a
Jones Buncher.