Cost Benefit - RancHERs

[wd40]

I never said I had a problem with these women and/or their education. However what I am saying is - With all the fluff comming from "advertizing", BIF and CBEF, etc, etc adnozium, we have empty feedlot pens like never before, acres and acres of silage fields going into grain production, cow calf producres leaving the industry in droves, bred cows and pairs selling at record low prices, were losing our feeding industry to the US.
I can guess who will come on next and say the indusrty needed a correction, and maybe it did.
That would happen without all the "ivory tower fluff", so fire them all save the cost and check-off dollars and get our heads out of the sand.
Their as helpful as the CWB.

[farmers_son]

I was at a dispersal sale (farm auction) two weeks ago where cow calf pairs sold for $1150. That is not great but it is not record low prices. I expected to see thousands of acres of tame grass being broke and seeded to grain, has not happened in this area yet. U.S. Live Cattle futures continue their uptrend. See:

http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/LC/M

At $17 a bushel canola some acres that were swath grazed or growing silage are bound to grow grain in 2008. Time will tell though, no one is on the land yet here and after a while silage or feed will start to look good if things get late. We are really looking at 18 days left to get the cash grain crops in. Although I did seed wheat last year after May 24, in fact it was into June, that is pretty high risk and those late crops tend to be feed.

As for the ivory tower fluff….ABP got Alberta cattle producers millions of dollars from the CITI program for loss of inventory value on bred heifers. The expected payout will amount to all the checkoff collected for two years. That is not fluff.

ABP spends millions on research plus oversees the Canada Alberta Beef Industry Development Fund. In most cases producers checkoff dollars are matched by other funding partners to create something much larger than the actual check off dollar. Not fluff either. The checkoff dollar is matched two or three times creating opportunities that just would not exist without that seed money.

We are certain to see continued protectionist actions come from the U.S. I would be willing to bet we will see an attempt for a countervail action come from the U.S. in 2008 or 2009 unless there is an improvement in their live cattle prices. Where is the money going to come from to fight that? Out of fluff? It takes millions to fight those battles just as millions were spent on getting the border reopened to live cattle.

[grassfarmer]

I don't know how we can judge cost effectiveness - I'm still awaiting an answer from the ivory tower to the question I asked about the cost of the RancHers campaign. It seems that work is under way on a successor though if I understand the March board meeting minutes. "....explained to the Board that she was meeting with some agencies to look at new proposals for a promotion campaign and they would have a better chance of getting some decent proposals if they could add the unused budget portion to their current budget." The unused budget mentioned was $230,000 - so if that's the little sweetner thrown into the pot to get a decent proposal how big is/was the pot?

I note also that ABP are anticipating a countervail challenge next year and are setting funds aside for that. They spent $5 million fighting the last round - remind me again what it was about and what the outcome was? I have heard a lot of recent industry proposed solutions shot down because they might attract countervail so what has come into play that renders us liable to a countervail challenge now?

[wd40]

I don't know where you're at FS but you should be a cattle buyer. There's more CC ready to calve and pairs selling for under $600 than you can shake a stick at. So you have an opportunity to get rich.

[wd40]

My old man once said "He who has all the answers dosn't know all the questions.

Alberta Beef is a product the world wants, in preferance to the US steak.

Europe wants Canadian Beef is the worst way and will pay priemum for it.

We havn't even come close to filling our quota there.

Ane we need "ABP got Alberta cattle producers millions of dollars from the CITI program for loss of inventory value on bred heifers" to survive.

"that just would not exist without that seed money."
What a crock - the opportunities exists without the our job creation and job security! You should take a class in Marketing 101.

[smcgrath76]

In lay terms under US trade law dumping is defined as selling below the cost of production. Currently by that definition I would guess that the average cow/calf producer sending calves stateside is dumping. I saw a figure in my Agrisuccess publicaiton yesterday that said the predicted net income for beef producers in 2008 is -$5000.

[farmers_son]

Wd40: FYI I have taken years of marketing courses at a level well beyond Marketing 101. I know Ranchers Beef was working to sell hormone free beef to Europe and I approached them to participate in that endeavour but their quotas were filled. I would have to surmise that it was not hugely profitable for Ranchers Beef as they filed for bankruptcy just about the time my calves would have been sold had they been on the program.

[grassfarmer]

C'mon Sean, you are not serious in suggesting that the US could raise a countervail because Canadian producers have been forced to sell below their production cost? Maybe they should charge their countrymen running the packing cartel up here with grand theft - bovine instead.

Farmers_son, Surely you are not implying that the pursuit of a hormone free market in Europe was the cause of the Ranchers Beef bankruptcy? How about the fact that their business plan to incorporate BSE testing was frustrated by your buddies at ABP/CCA??
Of course there is a good market in Europe for hormone free product but I have it on good authority that the mandate of CBEF is in fact to thwart all efforts by independant/small scale processors to sell into that market. The huge sums of checkoff money that CBEF spends allegedly scouring the world for new markets for Canadian beef is a pretense. They are out there marketing beef for the 2.5 huge scale packers based in Canada and no-one else is to be allowed a look in. All about maintaining their captive supply situation.

[loric]

Grassfarmer - I am still working on getting that data for you. I had a family emergency that I had to head home for and just got back to the office.

[grassfarmer]

OK loric, sorry to hear that.

[smcgrath76]

US trade law is funny. The last countervail was raised specifically for that point. The hog guys are also in danger of rasing the ire of a countervail for the same reason.
The cases would be raised and conducted in a US court, so the issue becomes a pretty serious one that is incredibly difficult to manage. Think softwood lumber, same scenario.

[smcgrath76]

Sorry to hear that Lori. Hope everyone is OK.

SM

[farmers_son]

Grassfarmer: It is my impression that the Rancher’s Beef bankruptcy was in large part due to too much debt. Rancher's did focus attention on the Europe hormone free market but it would appear that it was not lucrative enough to keep them alive. Their hormone free protocol was not easy for the producer to meet and would have cost quite a bit of money in vet fees. I did leave that lot of calves with no implants even if they never were contracted with Ranchers Beef but it really showed, implants make a real difference.

I can’t believe that all the small processors that are members of CBEF would continue to pay their membership dues if the situation was as you describe.

As long as we can ship live cattle to the U.S. I do not see where the 2.5 Canadian packers have a captive supply. COOL does threaten that however which is a real concern for me.