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\"The Big Short\" . . . .

biglentil's Avatar Jan 17, 2016 | 22:45 31 Senario 1, 2, 3 all inflationary.

Senario 4
Central banks around the world recognize the futility and inherant damage to the market of artificially low interest rates and QE. They decide against stimulus or bailouts. They realize that the withdrawl systems from the cheap money may be painful but necessary to right the ship. Justin Trudeau realizes this is likely political suicide, unemployment may temporarily buldge, bombardier Canada's loved national brand may cease to exist, and public spending will need to be cut. He likely will lose alot of friends in high and low places but its necessary tough love. Deflation is a gurantee and many will feel the pain of higher rates. Savers will once again be rewarded and malinvestment punished.

This senario is about as likely as pigs flying in my view and the only deflationary senario i can think of. Its a race to the bottom among central banks. Reply With Quote
Jan 18, 2016 | 09:00 32 Finally got the movie to work,scares the bijeezus out of me because it only confirms what we are all talking.Brad pitts character was interesting,an old retired trader turned prepper.

I have no doubt there will be a crash just what will it look like,you could have the dow at 30,000 but be in a lot of pain.

The debt will have to be dealt with but it can be done in a few different ways so thats up to policy makers.

ludwig von mises has a quote that goes something like"you can not escape the crash brought about by a credit fueled boom,only whether to deal with it sooner to lesson the pain or later with a collapse"can't remember how it exactly went. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 21, 2022 | 11:01 33
    Quote Originally Posted by cottonpicken View Post
    If people stop receiving interest payments on the bonds that's default and the currency gets smoked.

    If teachers policemen and nurses stop getting paid it will be chaos.

    If they jack taxes they hammer GDP

    The situation is so bad they MONETIZED the debt!

    We are not getting out of this. The thought some political leader has some magical solution is laughable at best.

    The path of least resistance is control print

    Bump the 2016 thread
    Classic Cottonpicken... Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 21, 2022 | 11:07 34 miss that guy
    visionary for sure Reply With Quote
    Sep 21, 2022 | 11:18 35
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    Bump the 2016 thread
    Classic Cottonpicken...

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    Stock markets haven't been as volatile as the grain markets .

    Grain markets are insanely volatile ...

    In the old days we used to gasp at a $10.00/MT move in a day - we've been trading $20/high low spreads for months...

    No one here has traded a war with two of the worlds largest wheat exporters lobbing missiles at each other nor with social media skewing social attitudes Reply With Quote