Anybody see this?

[ValueChainFX]

rusty1 I couldn't agree with you more, at the moment CBEF is the only one and if one checks out their web site you will find Cargill is right in there with their man in a key board role!!!

Whatever, going into markets other than US, is one of the steps we need to take! Japan never did take cows and only took the best of the best, but pay top dollar for it .

[pandiana]

rusty1 "Let me remind you all the sustem was working relativly fine till 520. The production groups were all capable of making some money. Yeh maybe some cow calf producers are whining, but then why should the country subsidize c/c producers that live on land that erbinites want to pay other world prices. Producers that are managing their ranches properly are making a go of it too."

I guess I have to put myself in what you call the 'whiner' category. Judging from what I have been hearing over the past few years, I am in good company.
Without a doubt, urbanites are driving up the cost of farm land, but ironically, this can be any land, not just close to the cities.

I would assume the " managing their ranches properly" refers to inheriting a large portion of your land and machinery.

[pandiana]

rusty1 "Let me remind you all the sustem was working relativly fine till 520. The production groups were all capable of making some money. Yeh maybe some cow calf producers are whining, but then why should the country subsidize c/c producers that live on land that erbinites want to pay other world prices. Producers that are managing their ranches properly are making a go of it too."

I guess I have to put myself in what you call the 'whiner' category. Judging from what I have been hearing over the past few years, I am in good company.
Without a doubt, urbanites are driving up the cost of farm land, but ironically, this can be any land, not just close to the cities.

I would assume the " managing their ranches properly" refers to inheriting a large portion of your land and machinery.

[pandiana]

cowman, what do you think the packers will do with those 8 cent cows if the border stays closed?

[kato]

All the dairy guys I know are doing well, but they also are constantly looking over their shoulders. The Americans are gunning for them and want the marketing boards GONE. I know several who have sold out just because they were worried that the end of the marketing board would be the end of their quota value, which they were counting on as retirement money. In fact their cows all went to Wisconsin, to a dairy farm that milks seveal thousand cows. Just what we need..factory milk farms.

I know quite a few hog producers as well. Vertical integration has pretty much eliminated the small operator. The days of having a few sows around are over, because there is no where to market weanlings in anything less than a truckload. Years ago we kept the house going quite nicely with 30 sows. Now it's either big or nothing in the pig business. The only way for a young guy to start up is as an "employee" (aka contracted) for one of the big pork companies.

Years back Manitoba had a short spell of central desk selling that seemed to work quite well. I can't remember all the details though. Anyone here have a better memory. It wasn't a marketing board, but the packers had to buy through the central desk, something like the Manitoba Hog Marketing board is now. Quota and a marketing board sound good now...they always are when things get started, but one byproduct is that in time the quota value gets so high that it totally eliminates young producers from starting up. With dairy and chickens now, if you don't inherit it, you don't get in, because to buy quota and start up would take you a lifetime to pay off. We don't want to lose our young producers.

[rusty1]

Single Desk Selling - In Texas there is a producer owned non profit organization call Consolidated Beef. They sell a significant portion of the fat cattle from all the midwest feeding states. It's working quite well. If you talk to those using it their quite happy. If you talk to those who think the packers are buddies, and feed for packers you get another story (wonder why).

[cswilson]

I can't see supply management ever working-we have relatives who exited the broiler business because of it. The cattle business is about the last business where you can get ahead with some luck and iniative-having to purchase quota would effectively stifle most of this-adversity tends to stimulate creativity in your management.5/20 came directly out of left field but ponder this-when BSE is discovered in the U.S. and it will be think of the opportunities for Canada. As for old cows we've kept our herd pretty current and just rebred them-guess we'll wait and see if that was right move.

[dalek]

BSE may be hurting the beef industry more than the dairy industry now, but it's going to hurt the dairy industry longer than the beef industry. Lyle Vanclief is already telling the dairy heifer exporters in his home riding not to expect to be able to sell bred or open heifers south for a minimum of 2-3 years, and cows of any sort whether they're culls or breeding stock for 6-7 years, and he's been overly optimistic with all his estimates so far. Meanwhile he's telling the beef producers that calves, stockers and fats should all be able to go south by Christmas. There's an amazing number of farmers who depend on the dairy heifer market for their living, and a huge number of dairy producers who depend heavily on the US market for selling genetics. Many of my neighbours have historically been able to depend on at least 25% of their gross income and in some cases more than half coming from sales to the US, and that just isn't coming back for a long time after the border opens up to slaughter cattle.

[cowman]

pandianna: I imagine they'll try to get those 8 cent cows down to six cents! I don't think they really care. Business sort of operates on a quarterly basis and they seldom look ahead!
Rusty 1: You are probably right about trying to raise cattle or farm on that expensive land. Unfortunately in Alberta it's pretty well all expensive except out in the desert where you need 100 acres to run a cow or up north in the boondocks! I had a relatively young neighbor who sold 2 quarters here and bought 13 in Manitoba plus got $50,000 in his pocket! Said it was very similar land, buildings etc.! So I guess if a person wants to keep cows that's where he should be! Keep Alberta for the wealthy playboys!
dalek: The breeding stock thing is pretty discouraging. I imagine a lot of the big purebred outfits are sweating right now.

[dalek]

Cowman the dairy shows here are expecting less than half of the exhibitors they usually get because so many of the purebred outfits just don't have the money to get set up for a show when they have absolutely nothing to gain, no ability to sell anything by showing. Within 20 miles of me are 2 Jersey herds that usually compete with each other for premier exhibitor and breeder at both the Royal and at the World Dairy Expo, they're so dependent on exports that I'd bet they're both on the brink already. About the only positive that might come out of this is that farmers in Canada that could never compete with the Americans for the top genetics might have a chance now, if they can keep their head above water long enough, and the AMericans won't be able to continually pull our best animals south with deep pockets. I suspect that a lot of good herds that have taken decades to build will be broken up this winter though.

[dalek]

Cowman the dairy shows here are expecting less than half of the exhibitors they usually get because so many of the purebred outfits just don't have the money to get set up for a show when they have absolutely nothing to gain, no ability to sell anything by showing. Within 20 miles of me are 2 Jersey herds that usually compete with each other for premier exhibitor and breeder at both the Royal and at the World Dairy Expo, they're so dependent on exports that I'd bet they're both on the brink already. About the only positive that might come out of this is that farmers in Canada that could never compete with the Americans for the top genetics might have a chance now, if they can keep their head above water long enough, and the AMericans won't be able to continually pull our best animals south with deep pockets. I suspect that a lot of good herds that have taken decades to build will be broken up this winter though.

[ValueChainFX]

I think what we see as supply management in the traditional sense, or single desk selling whatever you want to call a market controller will not work as well as a mix of several systems. Keep in mind you as a producer still need to have the choices you need to build your own individual business. You also need solid data for reference points to make your choices.

At the moment many of your choices have been limited as the big guys basically control the market, if you don't have what they want, you are forced to sell it at the sale or to some smaller market that is outside the interests of the big guys.

If we are going to build any markets of any size we need to at least understand the live inventory levels and the inventory levels of product for sale (chilled product and frozen product. Rather than turn these markets over to someone that is going to want to control your every choice it makes more sense to work in alignment with several marketers working from an accumulation of industry data that gives us the information we all need to build our businesses.

Any of you have an idea of what you may want to see on these lines!

[cswilson]

Value chain I have to agree that there needs to be some sort of info sharing and market integration-we sell all our finished cattle on a quality grid and do quite well. It is all a matter of finding which grid system your cattle fit into and marketing them that way. Selling calves off the fall is no doubt convenient but like all conveniences I feel you pay for it. We calve midsummer and were copnstantly getting discopunted for our grass cattle at auction-seems a 7 weight july yearling is not as good as an 8 weight march one. When we starting retaining ownership we went from discount cattle to premium cattle so I am pretty much a believer in grid selling.

[ValueChainFX]

cswilson the grid system seems to have some good points. I understand there are a couple of grid systems around. Ranchers Renaissance uses a grid system and seems to be happy with it.

Maybe you can clarify how the grid system works for you so others get a producer view of this.

From what I understand this system fails us when we are looking at "SOME" new or specialized markets ... What are your thoughts on this?

I'm also wondering if anyone has heard of "Farm Subscriptions"?

[rusty1]

Sorry folks. When I refered to single desk selling I ment for the fat industy. If feedlots collectively sent their show list through a producer owned and non profit organization I know it would work. Reason i know is that packing houses DO NOT like the idea. Also it's working very well in the states and would work ever better with stronger particapation.