Close the ports

[rusty1]

I think it's time to shut the ports off in Vancouver to Japaneeze cars etc. I saw an accident the other day that was with a Honda from across the pond. It's time we turned around any ships arriving in Vancouver bearing the Japanese flag and sent it back.

[countryguy]

Rusty,I know these are frustrating times but we must remember that we currently have the same ban on Japanese beef that they have imposed on ours.How do we explain to them that our own rules do not apply to us?It's crappy when we can't have our cake and eat it too.

[rsomer]

It is not accurate to compare Canada’s single BSE case (which by the way never reached the food chain i.e. the system worked) to the situation in Japan which had seven confirmed cases of BSE. I know our beef organizations are drawing comparisons between Canada and Japan but I don’t believe the comparison is valid. Japan had a full blown outbreak of BSE, we had a single case, one animal, that’s all.

There is a good history of Japan’s BSE crisis and the subsequent testing of every animal slaughtered at http://ourworld.cs.com/j1braakman/landen/japan.htm

[rusty1]

rsomer - I agree - and understand our situation, what I want them to do is say "OK" heres the plan, this is what we require, here is why and when - get to the bargening table. Indecision is worse than a bad decision !!

[Bruce14]

Well, the Japanese haven't had this much attention since they forced the U.S. into WWII with the attack on Pearl Harbor. Funny how things change isn't it.

What's happening with stopping importation of beef that is in excess of all trade agreements.
Is it still at the talk stage or is something actually happening?

[rsomer]

rusty1:

I don't believe Japan is the real root of the problem. Here is how I see the situation.

As early as this time last year it was obvious to beef observers that Japan was looking to restrict imports of beef in order to support their domestic producers hard hit by their own BSE crisis. See http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/IATRs/2002/japbeef.pdf

Australia and the U.S. are being hit with 50% tariffs on beef imports with the expected result that import volumes in 2003 will drop from 2001-2002 levels. Japan's request that Australia and the U.S. provide country of origin labeling may have less to do with concerns about BSE in Canada than finding a convenient method to further restrict beef imports into Japan. The
USDA knows that Japan is not going to be an important market for U.S. beef in near future, Canadian beef or not, at least until the Japanese consumer get over the BSE jitters and starts eating beef again.

Further, when we are talking Japan at this time we have to put Japan's international policy statements in the context of North Korea probably having nuclear weapons. Japan is very aware of what a nuclear bomb can do and will be very concerned about the situation in North Korea. Right now Japan needs the United States support. Japan would not be taking the position they have on Canada's beef if that policy was not 100% supported by the United States. Sure it works for Japan's domestic interest as their policy position supports their domestic beef producers but it keeps them on-side with the United States too.

Bottom line, the problem is not Japan, it is the Unites States. Japan is certainly not in a position to dictate what the U.S. can or cannot import from any country. What is really happening is the United States is giving Canadians a little lesson in public policy. Japan is just being the fall guy. If the United States wanted the border to open it would open.

[rusty1]

ransomer - interesting all the retoric that we all think we know. It is obvious to me that there is way more to this than meets the eye. Why do we have 32 country that still have not stepped up to the tablr and told us what the hoops are we must jump through. Hasn't happened. The world knows that the real risk to humans pales into insignificants, in light of some very common health issues. ie. smoking etc. etc.
So if the truth were really known we would realize that there are 30 plus countries playing their own solitair chess game with our lives and I for one am getting really mad at the "postering" going on between govts. and the lack of commitment to our own residents by our own elected politicians.
It's high time JC got on a plane go to Washington and Japan and not come home till they tell what are the hoops we must jump through. If they are not prepaired to tell us then close the ports and shut off the gas till they comitt to some truth. If they all got into 1 hotel room I think in 24 hours there should be resolve.

[Junebug]

If you really want to see Alberta's ecomony fall flat on its face, shutting off the gas will do it.(at this time of the year) The largest industry in Alberta would shut down exploration and shut in low ecomonical wells so fast,Thousands of people and service companies would be out of work within days. Putting our other industry at risk is not worth it. (US may find other sources if they want to keep the borders closed bad enough)

[rusty1]

Sorry Junebug - I guess I didn't make myself clear. I don't believe for one split second that closing the ports to Japaneese cars etc. and shutting off the gas south bound would cause any hardship. When the Californians air conditioners quite and their power goes out, and Japans boats sit in the harbour, then we will get serious about negoiating. Right now all we've got is political balance of trade postering. The beef industry is being held hostage as a comodity (which it is ) like a bin of Oats.
Let me recomend you check out web site www.leiss.ca check out the article "The penny drops".

[rsomer]

rusty1 and junebug:

We are really getting to see up front the role politics and governments play in agriculture and trade.

I don't see how the United States will be exporting any beef to Japan given they are paying US$1.25 a pound for steers and after August 1 will be charged a 50% duty on imports to Japan. And without Canada's beef the U.S. doesn't produce sufficient volumes for export. Top U.S. officials say our beef is safe and they would allow our beef across the border except they need to protect an important Japanese market which is just not going to be there. But then the whole world knows the present U.S. administration are liars. Sorry, but its true.

Junebug, I agree, restricting trade with Japan or the U.S. will not solve anything. I see nothing to be gained.

Rather then not buying Japanese cars, John Manley is suggesting this morning that Canada should lift its ban on specialty beef imports from Japan.

That's interesting. Will we then also allow imports of beef from Britain and Europe. Whats the difference?

I believe there is a difference between Canada's single case of BSE and the risk associated with countries such as Britain, Japan and others which have had major outbreaks.

I understand the science says our Canadian product has such a low risk of BSE that the risk is insignificant. I would think the risk from Britain and Japan is higher. As recently as last week a Washington feed processor was found including rendered animal byproducts in rations for beef cattle. Certainly this is against international agreements, so how can the United States quarantee its beef is BSE free. Well they can't but the risk is low and they are still exporting beef.

Where does the line get drawn?
At some point the world needs to decide what constitutes an acceptable risk of BSE as there really is no zero risk. Science based decision making is great but a lot of decisions are based on politics too, and in the nearterm politics will decide the fate of the beef industry in Canada.

At a time like this we need friends in the global sandbox, even if these friends don't always tell the truth, are bullies, kick sand in our face and don't play fair. We can't go starting fights, we are smaller than the other kids. We have to keep playing with them although its a tough playground.
Well, maybe just a little name calling would be OK. Liar, liar, pants on fire!! <big grin, might as well laugh as cry>

[kato]

Today I spoke with a man who is "on the inside", so to speak, who said that he had been told the only reason Japanese beef is not here is that no one from Japan had asked to have the border open. We only ever did import a small amount of Kobe beef any way. Apparently the feeling was that if they had asked, they would very likely have been allowed to ship it here. They just didn't ask.

[Junebug]

I attended a local BSE informative meeting a couple of days ago. There was representation there from the provincial govern., federal govern., Alberta Cattle Commision, a federal vet etc.
The comment made was "I have never seen Ralph Cline so frustrated as he was on Tuesday as he desperately tried to get some answers as to what we have to do to get that border open." No one would come up with any thing.
They mentioned that the Japanese wanted to import to Canada 5 kgs. of beef last year and 250 kgs. of beef in 2001 and Canada would not allow it. Canada would not allow the Japanese to be apart of the investagating team that worked on our single case of BSE. So do you think it may be a case of "PAY BACK" time. Both government officials said this problem is now 100 % political, science is not being considered now, and that there are issues with ottawa and Washington (surprise,surprise) All in all a very good informative meeting however the bottom line was "Don't expect these borders to be openned any time soon"

[rusty1]

I found the best claification on this who BSE issue - it's a must read. Finally something that makes sence @ http://www.leiss.ca/chronicles/125
William Leiss is a prof at the U of Calgary.

[ValueChainFX]

I do believe Ralph Kline is truly frustrated with his attempts to open the boarders. He is finding out that we have built a system that is slow, cumbersome and full of little dictators that stifle growth and prevent change.

Yes the government is to blame for much of the challenge we are in today, but so are the many so called structures we have let gradually bog down our agriculture industry. Our industry representatives have been less than effective in monies geared to enhance the agriculture industry and have created many new forms of red tape and dependency on our academic paper shufflers.

If we want to make agriculture in Canada work we need to work together and play on the same field. We can’t keep pumping money into programs that have no real direct benefit to the front line agriculture community. It’s time that we looked at the farms and ranches in Canada and work towards making them more sustainable. Research, incubators, marketing plans and studies are fine if they have a direct impact on a balanced supply chain. But to leave your front line producers out of this mix is nothing short of ludicrous.

I hope Ralph is able to cut through some of this Bull and in true Mr. Klein fashion come up with a real solution that has real impact. The only way he will accomplish this is to cut through what I am sure is a lot of misinformation he is getting from some of his front line dictators!

[rsomer]

ValueChainFX:

If you remember, Ralph Kline personally came out in support of the Iraq war. This no doubt earned him support of the present U.S. administration even if his position did not have the support of the Alberta PC caucus, certainly no support from the federal government. Ralph made his trip to see Dick Cheney but the border remained closed. Alberta is fortunate that it can ship gas to the U.S. and provide what support has been given to the beef industry with the resulting royalty revenues. However, the real solutions will come from Ottawa, not Alberta.

Junebug: I think it is entirely right that Japanese beef was denied access into Canada. To do so would have jeopardized our trade with the United States. There were international agreements in place that Canada was party to designed to keep North American BSE free. Now that one of the NAFTA trading partners is no longer BSE free the rules need to be rewritten. I am sure that is what is happening now even if we don't hear about it in the press. I see the number one issue is whether Canada will be forced to undertake costly safety measures that affect our competitiveness in order to ensure our product is "safe" and approved for export to our NAFTA partners while the other NAFTA partners may not be required to do the same in order to export beef to Canada. We have already unilaterally agreed to remove Specified Risk Materials (SRM) from our beef but that did not open the border. Frankly, Canada is not in a real good negotiating position right now.

Re the borders not being opened any time soon, Bush is up for re-election in November of 2004. I can't imagine the present U.S. administration wants BSE to be an election issue, they are having enough trouble with COOL. Certainly I see no solution until after Jean Cretien is replaced as leader in Canada, but a solution cannot be too long in coming after that or else BSE becomes an election issue in the U.S. February 2004 seems a likely time. If the border remains closed after February-March 2004 it will remain closed until after the U.S. election because the American cattleman is just having too much fun right now with high beef prices and won't want to vote for those that ended the party. My opinion.