So, is the drought over yet?

Commodity Marketing

Tools

So, is the drought over yet?

Jun 14, 2015 | 11:05 1 Looks like many places on the prairies got some rain in recent days. Is this widespread, or localized? Is it too late in some places?

We received a desperately needed .8" total this week, and .25" last week, with more in the forecast. But very localized, much more to our north, not much in places south. This is a huge help, looks like the last of the Canola sitting in dry dirt is germinating, but surprisingly it is still dusty an inch below the surface. I suspect that early seeded crops may have already committed themselves to their potential, late seeded should respond well. In my experience, by now, it is already too late for hay to respond, pastures will improve.

So how substantial is the area that received rain, and was it the areas that needed it?

Most posters here report local conditions, but I rarely know where they are from so it is meaningless to me. My area is extreme West Central Alberta, straight West of Red Deer. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 11:21 2 30 day outlook for drier than normal for Northern plains wetter for Mid-West. Reply With Quote
LEP
Jun 14, 2015 | 11:21 3 We have two showers since mid april. Each of about 1 tenth. We are very desperate, not sure if we are not too far gone.

I have canola that isn't fully germinated that was seeded on April 28. We finished seeding on the 18th of May and have not sprayed any in crop yet.

Durum seeded on April 28 will be sprayed tomorrow but even that isn't fully germinated.

The bottom line is going to look awful red this year. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 11:24 4 With what you posted for your area, what are you thinking yields could be off by?

At this point do you have to worry about an early frost with crop just germinating now? Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 12:04 5 Good point bucket - an early Sept frost will be a killer now
Most crops here are 10 days behind "normal" now . Just looking at seeding dates from last year - we were the same time period seeding but are now 10 days behind last year spray dates . And we are the "lucky" ones in this area
A lot of mid to late maturing canola got reseeded - it will need to hurry hard now Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 12:18 6 I only ask because last year on the 13 of June was the last day I seeded. It was cold and wet took 10 days to come up and I knew it was going to end up getting a harvest frost. Even the earlier stuff last year was graded on frost.

This year is a moisture issue and cool but the seeds have been in the ground longer.

At what point do the late germinating seeds just become a weed? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 12:21 7 Canola: 24 bu/ac
Flax: 22 bu/ac
Wht (spring): 32 bu/ac
Peas: 28 bu/ac
Barley: 55 bu/ac

Who knows? Some less some more. Overall below "average". I should go somewhere worse off than me and maybe I will feel better about the state of my crop. We have reserve, but light land doesn't hold as much a clay based. At least everything came up, how long will it hang on until major potential is reduced, I don't know. We WILL need rain. We will have sprayed everything as we "normally" ;-) would. There is at least that much potential now. Can't see.a need for fungicide if no meaningful rain comes. There is little dew mornings, what a difference a year can make.

Good luck fellows. Signed: Hanging On. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 12:39 8 Guess we are going to see what kind of crop we can grow with no rain. They are looking pretty good at Qu'Appelle and lentils at home will be kinda short. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 12:42 9 2/10's of an inch here where we live and nothing on at least half the farm a few miles away.
Unreal how fast things can change. We were very wet the last 7 years and now haven't seen an inch of rain since the snow melted.
She's next year country around here already. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 12:56 10 On the plus side guys with the new million dollar seeding outfits won't have residue issues. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 13:00 11 Don't need much flax stubble or pea vines to cause grief on a Bourgault MRB. There tweety, just what you wanted to hear. Schadenfreude. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 13:01 12 Don't need much flax stubble or pea vines to cause grief on a Bourgault MRB. There tweety, just what you wanted to hear. Schadenfreude. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 13:04 13 Farma - I think you will be very close at the end of the day.

OMG someone beat S/F to the first yield estimates - just kiddin there S/F..... Reply With Quote
HFL
Jun 14, 2015 | 13:34 14 Drought isn't over at our place. If you look at the fourteen day forecast it indicates that the drought is strengthening. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 14:37 15 farma, are they that bad? no experience, but i thought they were better. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 14:52 16 Drought is far from over. Still huge acres in the Moose Jaw/Regina area that have received nothing this year. There will be those fortunate enough to grow a crop in the east that will receive decent prices. Good for them. It's about time. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 14:53 17 Tweety have you guys got any decent rain over there in the past 5 days ? I know it is still dry SW of Battleford. Only pockets with good rains over here , very strippy Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 15:05 18 12/15mm since snow gone Grass looks dead alfa at near 10% bloom but to shorh to cut in most of field, Pasture ok but mostly old lake bottom. Cloudy cool 14deg yesterday Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 15:16 19 only a few tenths. And spotty. If summer is supposed to be hot and dry, this is gonna be ugly. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 15:22 20 Farmaholic, a very good guess. If the whole of western Canada reports those numbers as an average yield, I would guess a 10 year low for grain and oilseed production would be the result.

As things stand right now I think a 5 year low is a lock. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 16:45 21 Just back from a little drive what a f$&king disappointing rain event! Guys will be out again in hours and days! Whaley seems to be doing the best as roots are going down! Canola is the sick one some fields ok to awsome and then it's what's growing out their!
So my assessment is its shot gun rain hit some and miss the next!
Good luck all it gets hot and July hits even out good stuff will suck the hind tit. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 18:36 22 On drive out to Echo today, most crops are just sitting there, with many ungerminated strips. Reply With Quote
iceman's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 19:48 23 Welcome back the old SF3 and get ready to start kissing ass elevator companies

Out Reply With Quote
iceman's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 19:49 24 Welcome back the old SF3 and get ready to start kissing ass elevator companies

Out Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 20:27 25 tweety, your favorite crop(flax) residue gets stuck between the disc and scraper. Tough wheat straw can too. But it is amazing the lodged cereal straw it can 'comb' through. The disc MRB cuts the straw which helps it feed through the rest of the ranks of openers. Tough pea vines are a fucking right-off, but can be for just about any drill. Canola stubble poses no trouble. Better manage the straw coming out the back of the combine and also harrow. Harrowing not much of an option for flax or pea stubble. I still think it would be better than the dual opener options but NOTHING is perfect. Ask SF3, I think he has both types. Will be a high maintenance rig..... Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 20:43 26 Sometimes being in a generally late seeding one is a Godsend. Fortunate staging. Crops here are starting to move, and look really great actually. Certain fields strippy and patchy from shallow seeding, but we got an inch and a quarter Thursday that will heal that, to a great extent.

Looks like back to normal or better for yields in this area at this point for the first time in many years. We will still need another shot of rain, but the concern for now is over, thanks to that soaker. Hay and pasture will hopefully respond as well, it was in tough shape.

Seeded some lawn on Thursday ahead of the storm, and it has remained damp and cool since then, so I should have a great catch on that piece. lol

Good temps for spraying sensitive crops in this next week it looks like; Nice moderate temps coming up.

Best wishes to you who need a good soaker. We got lucky. Been a long time for luck out here. Ahhh farming! as someone on here would say. Reply With Quote
Jun 14, 2015 | 20:43 27 Sometimes being in a generally late seeding one is a Godsend. Fortunate staging. Crops here are starting to move, and look really great actually. Certain fields strippy and patchy from shallow seeding, but we got an inch and a quarter Thursday that will heal that, to a great extent.

Looks like back to normal or better for yields in this area at this point for the first time in many years. We will still need another shot of rain, but the concern for now is over, thanks to that soaker. Hay and pasture will hopefully respond as well, it was in tough shape.

Seeded some lawn on Thursday ahead of the storm, and it has remained damp and cool since then, so I should have a great catch on that piece. lol

Good temps for spraying sensitive crops in this next week it looks like; Nice moderate temps coming up.

Best wishes to you who need a good soaker. We got lucky. Been a long time for luck out here. Ahhh farming! as someone on here would say. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jun 14, 2015 | 21:10 28 We work pea stubble in fall with the Kelly easy to seed into. Canola I think we're just going to work all canola fields in fall so nice to seed and crop was up fast and furious . The second drill the seed master is long gone were running two bourgeois one ten and one twelve spacing both with anhydrous down the coulters. Reply With Quote
Jun 15, 2015 | 07:30 29 How do those middle class drills work for you SF3? Reply With Quote