Just a note to highlight the Statcan March 31 grain stocks report was released today.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/020507/d020507a.htm
Canola supplies on Mar. 31 are estimated to be 2.4 MMT, down from 3.3 last year. Demand with disappearance likely to hold in the 350,000 to 400,000 t/month range over the next 4 months (Apr. 1 to July 31). That will leave about 800,000 t for a July 31 carryover. To put in perspective, under 500,000 t is small and over 1 MMT is big.
Barley feed use over the Aug. 1/01 to Mar. 31/02 is estimated to be 6.4 MMT, down from 7.8 MMT in the same period last year. Corn is making up the void. Based on this assumption, Canadian barley carryovers on Jyly 31/02 should be around 2.5 MMT, similar to last summer. Again to put into perspective, under 2 is small and over 3 MMT is big.
Nothing in these numbers to suggest a big rally this summer unless driven by a weather problem across the prainies and/or problems in another major grain/oilseed producing region.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/020507/d020507a.htm
Canola supplies on Mar. 31 are estimated to be 2.4 MMT, down from 3.3 last year. Demand with disappearance likely to hold in the 350,000 to 400,000 t/month range over the next 4 months (Apr. 1 to July 31). That will leave about 800,000 t for a July 31 carryover. To put in perspective, under 500,000 t is small and over 1 MMT is big.
Barley feed use over the Aug. 1/01 to Mar. 31/02 is estimated to be 6.4 MMT, down from 7.8 MMT in the same period last year. Corn is making up the void. Based on this assumption, Canadian barley carryovers on Jyly 31/02 should be around 2.5 MMT, similar to last summer. Again to put into perspective, under 2 is small and over 3 MMT is big.
Nothing in these numbers to suggest a big rally this summer unless driven by a weather problem across the prainies and/or problems in another major grain/oilseed producing region.