cattle markets

[cowman]

If you've visited your friendly local auction mart lately you will see prices have really gotten ugly. Cow prices are really poor and volumes are way up. Which is very understadable seeing how there is no feed in the country. Have prices come down in the supermarket? I really don't know but I doubt it. So who's making all the extra money?
What I really want to know is how much are bred cows/hfrs. going to be next fall IF it rains? A lot of cows are going to be exempted this year, but IF it rains, they will have to be replaced next year. Where will they come from? I see a lot of good hfr. calves going to the feedlot that would normally be going back into the cow herd. Could bred hfrs. be a goldmine next year IF it rains?

[Ron]

I was wondering the same. I am a grain farmer who has some greenfeed to sell this year but I have been thinking of buying some bred heifers or cows instead. Is there much downside left in the market? What will the long term results be if it rains this spring (how will the smaller herd affect calf prices and how long to rebuild herd?). This may be an opportunity to get into beef production or a very expensive mistake. Anybody got a weather forcast for the spring?

[cowman]

Ron: I suspect bred cows and heifers haven't seen the bottom yet, especially if we get a tough winter. Look for some bargains in late Jan. or early Feb. if there is a lot of snow and cold. I think many people are going into winter with the bare minimum of feed and need a good winter to pull it off. I believe there will be some awful cheap cows next winter and there is a real chance to make a killing IF(and it's a huge if) it rains next spring! Otherwise you could lose big time!
Hey, if you can predict the weather, you have it made in the shade and I sure want to hear from you!