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Loonie Headed Higher?

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    Loonie Headed Higher?

    The Canadian bank industry appears convinced the Cdn dollar will continue to weaken . . . to 72 cents, even a collapse to 62 cents U.S. heard. But is it possible this might not happen?

    An opinion . . . the U.S. dollar just might trip heading into the 2nd half of 2020. Albeit, Canada’s economy is headed nowhere, but odds of the U.S. headed-for-recession appears climbing. Manufacturing, transportation and service industries are now struggling stateside. And investors are cheering about Fed rate cuts in July onward powering equities toward historic highs this past week. This has been influenced by Trump and a slowing economy, not about making money ‘the real way’. Blinded investors and reverse economics at-its-best (IMO).

    And then there is the unknown, the U.S. tariff impact on the U.S itself . . . .

    Technically, the Sept Cdn now has resistance @ 76.50 cents, but should it break, next key resistance seen as high as 78 cents. Currency markets are global flow of money. If one currency changes course, the entire flow can change course. This make currencies difficult to predict. This might throw a curve ball into global currency as markets head into the last half of 2019.
    Last edited by errolanderson; Jul 12, 2019, 08:40.

    #2
    Sorry, got my Lonnie’s and loonies mixed up in title.

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      #3
      You can edit that....

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by bucket View Post
        You can edit that....
        Thanks bucket

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by wiseguy
          USA $ is King !

          Canadian dollar useless if your buying John-Deere !

          🇺🇸 $ 👍
          Why buy deere ...they are the modern day CCIL....

          Comment


            #6
            Errol, you need to use your google. Canada is going to a 65c loonie. Remember that big jobs report last month. Yeah it was BS.

            TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada lost 16,000 jobs in May as hiring declined in the construction sector, according to a report from ADP released on Thursday.
            The number of jobs added in April was revised down to 24,000 from 61,700, ADP said. .

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              #7
              Re tarriffs.

              Seemingly only real affect on australian farmers is falling wool prices have dropped about 20% since tarriffs started.

              None really knows correlation or why really wool has no connection with usa or tarriff policies.

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                #8
                Aust economy is "awful" mirrors what youve beeen saying errol

                https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/ian-verrender-analysis-awful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/ian-verrender-analysis-awful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398

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                  #9
                  Price action last week a bit of a surprise.

                  Surprises like that take a lot of energy to keep going. Look for an attempt to take out .7625 to keep it going. A pull back this week would open up .7425 as a destination before the end of July.
                  I see no indication before Sept expires of a 72 cent dollar. 62? forget it.
                  Range .7725 max .74 min

                  2020 is like saying what it will be 50 years from now. Impossible. But if 78 cannot be bested in 2019 it sets up a possibility for 70-71 by end of 2020.

                  I will refer back to this once in a while to prove how wrong charts can be

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by jazz View Post
                    Errol, you need to use your google. Canada is going to a 65c loonie. Remember that big jobs report last month. Yeah it was BS.

                    TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada lost 16,000 jobs in May as hiring declined in the construction sector, according to a report from ADP released on Thursday.
                    The number of jobs added in April was revised down to 24,000 from 61,700, ADP said. .
                    Jazz, agree Stats Can jobs data unbelievable. Cdn political and business weakness suggests further loonie fallout. But currency markets are all about the flow of money. Believe, flow potentially moving away from the USD starting . . . right now. Loonie up by accident triggering wave of technical buying (IMO).

                    Markets will tell the real story . . . .

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                      #11
                      Oil price always plays a roll. if things get wild with Iran could oil spike hard and the CAD follow it up maybe.

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                        #12
                        Sept loonie appears breaking above 76 cents. Gold rallying on ideas that Trump will bully the Fed to cut rates. Personal opinion: Dumb move.

                        USD in trouble . . . loonie being impacted by osmosis, but Cdn dollar trend remains up (IMO).

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                          #13
                          Not an expert but it baffles me with all the debt that is in this country that there is increasing confidence in the dollar. Is it because other countries are doing even worse partly?

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                            #14
                            Double top?

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by farming101 View Post
                              Double top?
                              farming101 . . . gold is technically quite overbought and due for a sharp setback day. This could maul the loonie . . . . good observation.

                              Comment

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