canola price

[Guest]

we really screwed up on our commodity and nexera canola marketing . we let our gaurd down because of the $14 hi acid canola price . that and we are piss poor marketers , lol
anyone see any hope for a canola bounce , 101 , anyone ?

[Oliver88]

There hasn’t been a great canola price since harvest so most people will be holding a fair amount of canola if they were chasing a good price.


It would be interesting to get more opinions and commentary on canola futures, basis levels and CDN $.

[Herc]

I don’t think you are the only one. We got caught with our pants down with canola this year. Didn’t grow much but still sitting on over 50%. Where is doc brown and the DeLorean!!

Guys that needed to get rid of it look like geniuses.

What happens next is anybody’s guess. Its too damn political this time around.

[furrowtickler]

Unfortunately the guys that needed to get “rid” of it had many other issues . Very tough , green seed , green seed and tough , green seed , tough and lower than average yields ...... well not so lucky 🍀 regardless of price .
It has not been a fun winter for many in this neck of the woods and north .
Drying shitty canola or not being able to deal with all of it in time has been costly enough for some with out the drop in price due to the China B/S . Constant blending just to get rid of it .

There was a big area that never got 60 plus bus / ac lol . The only saving grace was that most of the canola was freezing cold and held ok . But wrecks are happening now with warmer weather and the poor deliveries in some areas since January.
Talked to one guy today that got rid of a bunch of canola in December/ Jan
Tough , 25% green from hail . 9 bins , all 3500 bus flats . Just bin bottoms left .
Went out a yesterday to clean out bin bottoms ..... all 9 were heated .. fuked
Less than 1000 bus left in each one .
2 weeks ago they were fine .
Not fun .

Just count you lucky stars if you have good dry canola to keep stored . We have been fortunate so far . It’s not the case for many
Hopefully the price does pick up a lot for all . Need some good news for a change other than nice weather lol

[WiltonRanch]

I wonder how much is out there? Held some for a July rally but glad I took advantage of reasonable prices before. My July rally looks like getting what I got in winter. If it turns dry this summer or the dry areas don’t get enough rain the China issue will be the least of our concerns. I was running off on another thread about keeping low expectations about yields and doing better. Was so dry here for so long that 30 bushels was a success. So many are either too young or want forget those years. Remember the year we never combined anything. Only time in 100 years nothing was harvested. Remember the CWB being such a good marketer they pulled themselves from the world trade at the expense of those who did get a crop. That’s what fixed me on those guys.

[Guest]

Unfortunately the guys that needed to get “rid” of it had many other issues . Very tough , green seed , green seed and tough , green seed , tough and lower than average yields ...... well not so lucky 🍀 regardless of price .
It has not been a fun winter for many in this neck of the woods and north .
Drying shitty canola or not being able to deal with all of it in time has been costly enough for some with out the drop in price due to the China B/S . Constant blending just to get rid of it .

There was a big area that never got 60 plus bus / ac lol . The only saving grace was that most of the canola was freezing cold and held ok . But wrecks are happening now with warmer weather and the poor deliveries in some areas since January.
Talked to one guy today that got rid of a bunch of canola in December/ Jan
Tough , 25% green from hail . 9 bins , all 3500 bus flats . Just bin bottoms left .
Went out a yesterday to clean out bin bottoms ..... all 9 were heated .. fuked
Less than 1000 bus left in each one .
2 weeks ago they were fine .
Not fun .

Just count you lucky stars if you have good dry canola to keep stored . We have been fortunate so far . It’s not the case for many
Hopefully the price does pick up a lot for all . Need some good news for a change other than nice weather lol

good points furrow .
we were damn fortunate here , good quality and yields
thanks for the reality check , sometimes we need a wake up call

[Robertbarlage]

Snow is gone and no sloughs . If it doesn’t rain in a month canola will be 14 bucks by May If it does rain $9.00 .

[farming101]

Never lost a crop in March but the soil moisture levels here are poor and only half of last year. Without good spring rains pasture won't even put in a showing...

[farming101]

we really screwed up on our commodity and nexera canola marketing . we let our gaurd down because of the $14 hi acid canola price . that and we are piss poor marketers , lol
anyone see any hope for a canola bounce , 101 , anyone ?

sell the rally...if there is one. Need at least 481 July to scare the new short positions
No one saw this export issue. It's back to the trenches

[farmaholic]

I'm usually not at a loss for words but I'll let the cartoons speak for me.....





.........that's about as intelligent as my comments would be anyway.

[farmaholic]

Was at a GrainCo meeting today that thinks there will be a 6mmt carry out. WOW, what is that? About 1/3 of annual Canadian production. Hard to soak up that much excess in the remaining domestic crush and export 18/19 marketing year, even the difference between a normal carry out and the current forecasted one.

There has been some real damage done. And I wouldn't hold my breath for a "major" rebound, even if dry conditions persist in parts of the Prairies, until we have access to the Chinese market, even then...

Scattered thoughts from a "Gut Marketer", who just might possess two traits that never served him well this year, "greed" and "obstinence". But take the China Doll affect out of the market and we'd be singing the chorus from the song sheet before her arrest. How is the reverse "ransom" working for you?

Maybe 101 would like to put some real numbers together(or other Industry player's opinion on carry out) in case my memory from the meeting is failing me. After a while the meetings seem to become blah blah blah, rah rah rah, blah blah blah, rah blah rah! ...information overload, here's your solution.

[farmaholic]

One more....

[macdon02]

Anyone remember July '17? July futures blew off in a rally, all the grain cos rolled to Nov as volume dropped off with option expiry. It left a massive gap, July futures did the same last year, except we didn't get the high, we got a low in July. Seasonally, July is a "high". There's a tendency to rally on weather concerns etc. What bothers me, is we've taken out last year's low, so on a yearly level, it's fugly(lower low) not bullish. If a person believes in cycles, the lack of a July high, means the seasonally high periods will shift to lows. Unfortunately im guessing it's pretty much straight down from here into harvest when it'll be a prove it moment and we'll get hopefully the harvest low and move up. Think beans last year, they headed for the 09 low, applying that to canola I'll say sub 400 canola. Hindsight is a wonderful thing ... watching Chicago wheat at the moment for a close over 460 end of March, if that doesn't happen we risk last year's low at 413.2. Taking that out, I'm guessing we got 3 years rattling around in the basement. My mentor always said gaps fill like a gestating pig, if not 3 days then 3 weeks, if not weeks then months and finally years, that's a corn rule and not sure it applies to canola but im hoping it does, 3 years from the July '17 gap would be July 2020. I've heard 25-50% of last year's canola unpriced and on farm.... this isn't done. Eventually the market will either bleed everyone of cash or space. It never lets us out gracefully.

PS... if we rally in July and take out last year's high, creating an outside reversal on a yearly level my view would change to bullish, but we need to take out last year's high for a longer term bullish stance.

[farming101]

6 MMT on the high side for ending stocks but it will be record high and that's all that matters

Record is 3.008 MMT in 2014. I think

[shtferbrains]

For perspective, 6 MMT is about what Alberta grows.