The numbers Alberta separatists don’t want you to see

[rumrocks]

If you get a chance look at Dave Snow, Guelph University who did a study for MacDonald- Laurier Institute and read his article on, Why Violent Crime is on the Increase in Canada.

[chuckChuck]

Crime is down in Canada … but you’d never know it
[url]https://johnhoward.ca/blog/crime-rate-decreasing-in-canada/[/url]


Year to year fluctuations in crime rates are normal and generally do not indicate significant trends, yet they are often what gets attention. One can really only determine if trends are meaningful over a number of years. This is especially the case with highly visible crimes such as murder, or shootings, where, because the overall number is quite low, even a small change in numbers can look like a big percentage change.

When we consider the 2024 report in terms of which crimes (excluding those where the overall numbers are small) had the greatest change in the past year, we find the biggest decreases in child pornography (down 24%), extortion (down 10%) vehicle theft (down 17%) and breaking and entering (down 11%). The biggest increases were in shoplifting (up11%) and drug offences (up 14%). But there is no reason to think that these changes represent some important underlying trend. The patterns are not consistent from year to year and seem largely to be either random or due to changes in the amount of attention a particular crime gets from police and prosecutors.

Car theft is an interesting example. A year ago there were endless media stories about the rapid increase in car theft – even though it was still half the level of 25 years ago. This year the sharp decrease got very little attention.

Another example is related to cyber crime – that is, crimes committed on or through the internet. The overall rate of such crimes doubled from 2018 to 2024, yet decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024. In particular, child pornography charges went down sharply in the last year, for reasons that are not explained in the report and may not be understood at all. Most crimes are relatively minor


To think appropriately about crime, we should pay attention not just to the overall rate, but to its components. The vast majority of reported crimes in Canada are relatively minor. For example, in 2024 ‘violent’ crimes accounted for about 20% of all crimes. But of the 590,000 violent crimes reported, more than half were assault level 1 (involving no injury) and uttering threats. There were fewer than 1000 murders or attempted murders – which is one sixth of one percent of violent crimes. So a lot of what is classified as ‘violent crime’ does not involve what most of us would think of as significant violence. Thus our picture of crime in Canada is further distorted.

Similarly, of 1.3 million reported property crimes in 2024, more than 60% are in three categories – shoplifting, theft under $5000 and mischief. Again, while these are crimes, they are not the kind that tend to frighten people.

Other factors affect crime rates


Another issue affecting rates is the way certain crimes get classified. For example, in 2024 human trafficking charges were up sharply while prostitution charges were down even more, reinforcing a point made in an earlier post*** that prosecutors are now using human trafficking charges for what used to be called prostitution – perhaps in an attempt to justify harsher sentences.

Crime rates also vary sharpy across parts of Canada, being very much higher in the three territories, then in the prairies, and lower in eastern Canada. It is not clear what the reasons are for these differences, but they are large and consistent year over year.

Missing: Context and causes


It seems highly likely that these consistent patterns are related to other social factors. Yet one important aspect of the Stats Canada report is that there is virtually no mention of social context. For example, we know that homelessness is increasing substantially in Canada ([url]https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-homeless-numbers-1.7426934[/url]), and that homelessness is a correlate of crime. Homeless people are policed much more actively so are more likely to be charged – for example for living in an encampment. People who have nothing may feel more need to steal in order to survive. To see more shoplifting with more homelessness is not surprising. Similarly, quite a bit of minor crime, such as theft, is committed by people with addiction issues, especially when the only way to feed a habit is through theft.

While the relationships between social condition and crime are not simple, it is also impossible to understand crime without considering them. Picking out isolated facts to suit a point of view may be good politics, but it will not lead to effective policy.

About this blog: The John Howard Canada blog is intended to support greater public understanding of criminal justice issues. Blog content does not necessarily represent the views of the John Howard Society of Canada. All blog material may be reproduced freely for any non-profit purpose as long as the source is acknowledged. We welcome comments (moderated). Contact: [email]blogeditor@johnhoward.ca[/email].

[chuckChuck]

Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the United States

[url]https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/ranking-crime-in-canada-and-the-united-states[/url]

• This study examines total property and total violent crimes, adjusted for population, across 36 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and over 300 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The data reported covers the 2019 to 2022 period.
• In general, after decades of decline, recent years have seen increases in crime rates in both Canada and the United States, though by historic standards rates remain low.
• For violent crimes, the top (worst) ranked city was Memphis, TN (1,311 per 100,000) while the top ranked Canadian city was Winnipeg, which ranked 18th overall at 675 per 100,000.
• Twenty-five percent of Canadian CMAs are in the top half of Canada-U.S. violent crime rankings with the remaining 75 percent in the bottom half.
• For property crime, the top (worst) ranked city was Lethbridge, AB at 5,521 per 100,000. Kelowna, BC ranked second highest (4,932 per 100,000). Pueblo, CO at 4,911 per 100,000 ranked third overall and was the highest (worst) ranked U.S. city.
• While Canadian CMAs make up roughly 10 percent of the CMAs and MSAs used in this ranking, when it comes to property crime rates, they account for 24 percent of the top (worst) 10 percent of the property crime rankings whereas in the case of violent crimes they accounted for only 3 percent of the cities in the top 10 percent.
• There is a distinct east-west divide in the data in that eastern Canadian cities, particularly in Quebec, tend to have lower rates (adjusted for population) of both violent and property crime compared to the west. A similar east-west trend holds in the United States.

[chuckChuck]

The most socially progressive countries with high standards of living and more equality have the lowest crime rates.


Nordic countries—Iceland, Norway, Finland, and Denmark—consistently rank among the safest in the world, with exceptionally low levels of general violent crime and high social trust. However, Sweden has experienced a notable surge in gang-related violence and firearm homicides over the last decade.

Country-specific crime trends vary across the region:

• Iceland, Norway, Denmark, & Finland: These nations experience very low homicide rates (typically well under 1 per 100,000 residents). They boast extremely high rankings in the HelloSafe Safety Index largely attributed to strong welfare systems and a focus on restorative justice.

[furrowtickler]

Why has Sweden had that noticeable increase in gang violence ? …. only one reason …… and everyone knows exactly why

[shtferbrains]

Those are some huge cut and paste Chuck.

The short answer?

Most often the solution is to have some very impotent meetings and decide to hire some LPC friends to do a study.

[furrowtickler]

Well too be honest the NDP are way further out on the fringe than any party in Canadian history.
they kinda make the Liberals look normal lol

[chuckChuck]

Why has Sweden had that noticeable increase in gang violence ? …. only one reason …… and everyone knows exactly why

Whats the reason Furrow? Don't be shy, spell it out. I am sure you think it is just a simple single explanation.

But they still have a lower crime rate overall.

And the Fraser institute a favourite of right wingers says "In general, after decades of decline, recent years have seen increases in crime rates in both Canada and the United States, though by historic standards rates remain low."

But PP and the Cons like to fear monger about how bad the crime is in Canada.

The solution is not more jails by the way!

[chuckChuck]

Key Crime Trends

• Gun and Gang Violence: Sweden has seen a well-documented rise in organized crime over the last decade, with gangs heavily involved in the drug trade and extortion. This violence frequently involves shootings and the use of hand grenades or explosives to intimidate rivals.
• Homicides: Following a peak in previous years, reported homicides dropped significantly to 92 cases in 2024, falling to their lowest levels in a decade.
• General Crime Statistics: According to data from the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå), overall reported crimes in categories like theft, robbery, and fraud have generally declined, though drug offenses have increased.

[sumdumguy]

[QUOTE=chuckChuck
Key Crime Trends - Gun and Gang Violence:Sweden has seen a well-documented rise in organized crime over the last decade, with gangs heavily involved in the drug trade and extortion. This violence frequently involves shootings and the use of hand grenades or explosives to intimidate rivals.

I’ll bet you a case of Coors that these aren’t homegrown gangs. Import criminals and you import crime.