Elnino La Nina, Neutral,Ningaloo Nino/Nina

[shtferbrains]

Weather at Nipawin/ Carrot River/ Tisdale is another world compared to Regina/ Swift Current/ Kindersly.

Less evaporation, more frost risk.

Less wind , more bugs.

[Landdownunder]

The medieval warm period occurred 9th to 13th centuries then little ice age happened rapid cooling now warming again.
Quite well documented supposedly accurate.
No idea how data is collected.
See some responses to glenn hes probably a well read guy but does struggle with some basic weather stuff why we despise each other do wish he wouldn't partake in my threads. He should have message by now.
Free world I guess his right to.

[Landdownunder]

Quick edit comment we've got possibly 25c coming friday warm for winter. Had 23/4 plenty of times the sky is falling people working themselves into a lather. Err it's gonna bring 2 inches of rain over 4 to 5 days no panic from farmers.

Each and every time we get a warm blast in winter brings a cut off low.

Happens about once every 3 yrs common in spring not winter. But welcome.

[Landdownunder]

A copy and paste huge apologies but from a mate of a mate who I know a bit through storm chase circles and respected independent metoerolgist climatologist and great guy to boot. Should make sense to those who understand weather a bit. And the different threshold which is noted is the bane of many who follow weather here call elnino like chooks with there heads cut off but Australian met bureau always at least a month after "but America has called it" 'same breathe they hate everything American usually" any way have a top weekend guys gals convertibles


International Agencies Have Declared an El Niño, So Why Is It Still Raining?
This week, US agencies declared that the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño. With discussion over recent months focusing on a potential “Super El Niño” and one of the strongest El Niño events on record, you might be wondering why it has suddenly become much wetter, particularly over the east coast of Australia, while a strengthening El Niño is taking place.
While US agencies have declared El Niño conditions, the Bureau of Meteorology has not yet done so. That is because different organisations use different thresholds. Regardless of the formal declaration, both agencies acknowledge the unusually warm waters across the central to eastern Pacific, which is the classic tell-tale sign of an El Niño pattern.
But to understand the recent rainfall, we need to understand what El Niño actually does.
El Niño events are correlated with decreased rainfall across eastern Australia, but there is a difference between correlation and something always occurring.
At their core, El Niño events disrupt the trade winds across the Pacific Ocean. These winds are often easterly, and they occur because the water in the eastern Pacific is usually quite cool, which causes air to sink. Meanwhile, water in the western Pacific is comparatively warm, allowing air to rise. This helps generate the broader circulation pattern known as the Walker Circulation.
During an El Niño, this pattern weakens, and sometimes even reverses. Given the Pacific Ocean is a key driver of moisture, essentially the fuel for rainfall, it logically makes sense that El Niño events often produce below-average rainfall across parts of Australia.
In a traditional El Niño, two things happen. Warm water anomalies develop over the eastern Pacific, while cool water anomalies develop over the western Pacific. However, something that has made long-range forecasting during these patterns more challenging is that, over the past 10 to 15 years, the western Pacific has not been cooling in the same way it often did during the 1900s.
Understanding that the shift in trade winds is driven by the difference in ocean temperatures, if the eastern Pacific is 2 to 3°C above average, but the western Pacific is still 0 to 1°C above average, instead of 2 to 3°C below average, we can conceptually understand why the weakening of the Walker Circulation may not be as pronounced.
That does not mean it will not happen. We still expect the circulation will likely weaken, and the latter part of winter and early spring may enter a period of below-average rainfall. And in the attached SST anomaly loop, you can make out some slight cooling in the western Pacific during the past month - while warm water is rapidly spreading and increasing across the eastern Pacific.
In the meantime, onshore easterly winds have persisted, driving moisture into the east coast. This moisture has been colliding with a cold, wintry upper atmosphere, generating out-of-season rain, showers and storm activity across large parts of the country.
What is interesting is that, within the current broader ocean pattern, we may be seeing a weaker El Niño influence but stronger La Niña-like influences over Australia. That is absolutely complicating traditional long-range forecasting methods.