Belinda Stronach

[Willowcreek]

Canuck"Willowcreep is probably down south building Georges new fenceline.No doubt good practice for the one he wants to build along the Canadian border."

Canuck- We don't need to build no fence up here- instead they've put a new air flight of jets and a string of Predator robot planes- armed with missiles, so now when you try to sneak one of those diseased Canuck cows across they just zap you and the cow...LOL You be sure to get your USA Passport ID card- Ya here- wouldn't want your rear getting singed as a terrorist now--LOL....

Been great for the local and state economy tho- Bringing in big high tech bucks and high priced jobs...

[canuck]

Willowcreep,its strange you would use such a high tech solution on your northern border when it seems most of your illegal immigration is down south.As for your new passport requirements,LOL, I haven't crossed the border since the BSE bs began.No need to travel to the U.S. to see what you r-calfers really look like.I just look at one of my diseased cattle when they are facing away with their tail lifted.The resemblance is amazing.

[mb_rancher]

good post Canuck!!

[Cattleman]

kpb, I agree prices go up and down, and we react to these high prices. But since the US is the driver of this North American cattle price, why are we liquidating and the US expanding.....trade and other things influenced our herd not cattle prices. and really is the US still expanding? Check the heifer placements and cow slaughter, seems other things besides the "true drivers of the cattle cycle" (#'s of cattle)are making us react to price changes. It isn't the large glut of cattle caused by the cattle cycle driving this downturn. It is all the things I mentioned earlier.

[cowman]

grassfarmer: I don't know why those pastures are empty but the fact is I can rent out whatever I desire for those kind of prices? Can't we all? Just phone Weiller and Williams? I assume the owners are probably old and don't want to deal with the "slickers" who often rent pasture?
Not sure why you are upset that I "choose to work for someone else"? I don't work for anyone else! I work for myself. I am a contractor...you know its called business? Or do you know what business is?
Furthermore, according to your figures, I own a lot more land than you, its worth a lot more than yours, and I guess I'm running more cows than you...so where do I come off as some sort of halfwit that doesn't know what he's doing?
Maybe you need to spend a decade or two here and then tell us how much you know?

[grassfarmer]

Who is getting upset Cowman? you are an enigma - constantly whining how it is impossible to make money with beef cattle, how we should all give up straight away cos there is no money in it like their is in your great oil patch. But on the other hand you are also a smarter, bigger scale, wiser cattle producer than anyone else who has always made money at the business. Which are you or do you have one of those split personalities? like good cowman and bad cowman?

[smcgrath76]

A couple of points here Cattleman. Unfortunately the cycle does not follow a perfect clock (like the one in SK that never changes).
This time around the cycle has seen the period of high prices last a bit longer than expected. This could partly be attributed to drought across mahjor cattle producing areas of the US. This has slowed the typical expansion we would see (not enough grass for more cows) and held prices up. Canada has expanded their herd as well, but for a rather obvious and different reason. It has been pretty hard to get rid of a damn cow for a couple of years. The contraction in Canada may in part be due to rationalizing the size of the cowherd post-BSE.
We should be heading into the downward price slide, but perhaps not as quickly as most expected.
CS Wilson's adage also has the flip side where if you think it is too expensive to buy, then you better be selling.
The other factor that I believe extends the cycle (beyond the biology of the cow) is that in low price years, many producers sell more heifers to help cash flow their operations.
To this I would add that lenders understand a lot about money, but precious little about economics.

[smcgrath76]

Sorry for the double thread.
Further to this, the rising Canadian $ has lowered the Cdn fed price relative to the US, thus signalling contraction of our Cdn cowherd is due. If our $ had remained at the same $.65 level of a few years ago, I expect you would see a lot more cows in the country.

[Willowcreek]

Canuck "its strange you would use such a high tech solution on your northern border when it seems most of your illegal immigration is down south"

Canuck- Haven't you heard? These Predators and High Flyers have sensors to detect any beef product--so that after our elections change control of Congress, R-CALF will again be able to close the border....But this time those Predators with missiles wil guarantee no diseased beef gets south..LOL

Yep- they changed the whole mission of Malmstrom AFB- all the Tankers and fighters gone- now its the Border Patrol/Immigration spy planes and Predators...Putting in new satellite stations every 100 miles or so along the hi-line...
Maybe GW doesn't think the his North American Union takeover of Canada is happening fast enough and he's planning to invade...LOL

They did keep the Malmstrom nuke missiles......

[kpb]

grassfarmer, I agree with your second last post. I also get tired of guys saying they have to have a second job to make ranching work. I havent had an outside job nor has my wife and we're still around. In fact, as I said a while back, 2005 was the most profitable year we've ever had in ranching, mainly because of the cheap grass calves around in the spring.

And I also agree with your comments about land value. I'm not sure how the cost of grazing, etc. should be costed out on land that has been paid for so I just don't worry about it. I mean the land has a value in Alberta that is unrelated to whether or not cattle are on it so really what I think is that all ranchers in this province are both cattlemen and land investors. I'm comfortable with this assumption.

I also hear what you are saying about revenues minus expenses equalling the real bottom line and everything else being, in effect, theoretical. That also is how I do view things in real life. Still it sometimes gives me pause when I realize how much the land that my cows are grazing is actually worth and what I could get putting that money in income trusts. lol.

kpb

[greybeard]

Western Beef Development Center at Lanigan has an ongoing study of production costs with 22 producers reporting in 2005. The top 25% low cost producers had costs averaging $452 / cow. That left them with a total margin of $252 on an average herd size of 382 cows. By no means oilfield money, but not chump change if you love your work.
You might consider signing on, as they can always use more expertise.

[poorboy]

I think it is good to work out your costs and profits two ways.

In the first you take your income and expenses like grassfarmer does and any interest payments and land taxes and see what you have at the end of the year. If you have enough that you can comfortably live and exist, then those are you costs and be happy with them. Hopefully the increase in value of your owned land will provide for some retirement income as well.

The flip side is you should consider how much money you would make like cowman does if you were quit farming. If you could get a $/day for all your acres for grass rental and you don't have to do anything but pay the taxes and if you could sell your cows and calves for $x, put it in a GIC or the bank and draw interest on it, you should do the math.

For example, if you could get $200/hd from custom gazing, less $5 tax, nets $195/hd and you get $1000/hd @5% interest is $50/hd. In this example you could get $245/hd paid to you each year by selling your cow herd and doing NOTHING.

A lot of people are doing the calculations and realizing that they are only making a few dollars more than this and it taking a financial risk and a lot of labor to get it. For some people is just makes sense to rent it out or retire.

[whiteface]

Rimbey is not quite as expensive as Innisfail although not too far behind, however, at the risk of reguergitating poorboys thread, the land around here is "worth" a dollar a day to rent irregardless of whether or not someone chooses to put cows, horses, pigs, llamas, whatever on it and also irregardless of whether or not you have it paid for, mortgaged to the teeth or given to you and feeel like pissing it away. One must consider the VALUE of the land not so much what they have INVESTED into it or lack thereof (some people pay way too much money just to have a mountain view whereas their neighbors place is boggy and worth considerably less) when getting a true analysis of what these cows cost. My point exactly when I said all mine are pets simply because they can in no way compete with cattle being raised on much cheaper land beit Rimbey (don't take it personally grassfarmer just makieng a point) or Nova Scotia (neither you Nova Scotians, again, just makeing a point...land in Alberta is no longer priced condusive to raising cattle). Many operations can make it work if they do some mickey mouse math (all their land given to them and they work for free in central alberta) or if they go to the moon like CS Wilson or Willowcreek and live where nobody else wants to so thier costs are way down. Just my opinion. The land is the cost factor that will eliminate many producers not the cows and not the government. Have a good day all!

[grassfarmer]

The only way land will eliminate people from the cattle industry is if they paid too much for it. To imply that land is worth a $ a day whether it is grazed or not is nonsense relative to a grazing cattle operation. It is supply and demand and it is obvious that this country is full of tired old men who wish to rent out their pastures to someone else. The prices will fall - it is inevitable. I am going to look at some underseeded oat silage regrowth today that I might use for fattening my cows in a month or so. I will be paying 50 cents a day or less for it or I can't afford to have my cows crapping fertility on someone elses land. The guy may have heard pasture rents for a $ a day but it's nearly November, he has surplus forage and doesn't have a way to use it. If he gets a few hundred bucks for it that's cash in his hand for no work. He won't be fretting because he is losing money not charging a $ a day. Same with the guys growing hay and silage to sell - most is done below the cost of production but they aren't all selling up and moving to town - just as well or it would crash the property price pretty quick.

[Cattleman]

smcgrath, all those reason you gave that say what has altered the cattle cycle is pretty well the reason I don't bank on it the cattle cycle too much. If I am looking at expanding or possibly cutting back for markets, I have a lot of factors to look at, not just beef cow number trends