Stelmach at mercy of voters, oilpatch
Don Braid, Calgary Herald
Published: Saturday, October 27, 2007
When a premier rides down the middle of the road, the people watching might throw flowers, but they could also lob pies.
Premier Ed Stelmach is wide open to both greetings as he hits the open highway in his political convertible, a nakedly vulnerable leader through his own choice.
The farmer from Lamont has upended the province with his royalty policy. He did it against the advice of many Tories who have kept this party in office since 1971.
Stelmach has a truly curious habit of doing things backwards.
With no public mandate as premier, he could have postponed the royalty review until an election was safely won, as Peter Lougheed did in 1972.
Lougheed had four years left on his mandate when he began his own royalty upheaval. There was plenty of time to iron out kinks and recover from disasters.
Stelmach decided to do the royalty fix first. Now his future is at the mercy of voter and industry reaction.
This is risk-taking on a scale that would terrify a high-wire artist at Cirque du Soleil. The gamble could destroy Ed Stelmach by next spring, when his party holds its next convention.
This is the same party, remember, that dumped Ralph Klein, the longest-serving and most popular premier in modern Canadian history.
In 1992 these same Tories started an internal campaign against Premier Don Getty. He was gone in little more than a year.
A party that dumps premiers who win majority governments will tear Ed Stelmach apart in a heartbeat.
He has governed on sufferance so far because the amiable Alberta public was ready to give him a chance.
Sensing this, his caucus retreated into watchful, nervous silence while Stelmach took the government down untracked paths.
But if the public rejects the royalty policy, Stelmach will have no fallback authority.
He was third pick to lead a government still packed with Ralph Klein's friends and fans. The royalty battle was his idea alone. Some leadership candidates didn't think it was the big issue Stelmach insists he heard about so often.
On Day One of reaction to the policy, catastrophe was at least averted in the stock market. Hence the deep shudder of relief in the premier's office.
The overall business estimates, from expert companies like FirstEnergy Capital, were quite positive. Nobody is calling for a wholesale flight of capital.
Ominously, though, FirstEnergy also concluded: "Big Oil Wins, Little Oil Loses."
"Economics will be challenged for both natural gas and oil projects . . . You're a technically proficient geoscientist or engineer and want to be an entrepreneur in Alberta? Go somewhere else."
In the small oil and gas sector, a solid core of Tory support, boiling anger was building even before the policy came out.
For weeks I've been in contact with Lee Baker, a sincere and honest small player in the patch.
He concluded Friday that although his deep gas well might survive, "our high-volume project in northern Alberta is hit hard. We will likely cancel a six-well project for the area."
Mark Rennenberg, a Calgary consultant, sent a bitter e-mail to Stelmach Friday.
"I am one of the 'little people' in this province who go to their job everyday and work hard to earn a living," Rennenberg told the premier.
"After today, I will not be supporting the Progressive Conservative party of Alberta. And I doubt that I ever will again." Today Ed Stelmach totters on his own high wire with political safety a misty distance ahead. Mysteriously, he doesn't even seem aware of the long fall below.
Don Braid, Calgary Herald
Published: Saturday, October 27, 2007
When a premier rides down the middle of the road, the people watching might throw flowers, but they could also lob pies.
Premier Ed Stelmach is wide open to both greetings as he hits the open highway in his political convertible, a nakedly vulnerable leader through his own choice.
The farmer from Lamont has upended the province with his royalty policy. He did it against the advice of many Tories who have kept this party in office since 1971.
Stelmach has a truly curious habit of doing things backwards.
With no public mandate as premier, he could have postponed the royalty review until an election was safely won, as Peter Lougheed did in 1972.
Lougheed had four years left on his mandate when he began his own royalty upheaval. There was plenty of time to iron out kinks and recover from disasters.
Stelmach decided to do the royalty fix first. Now his future is at the mercy of voter and industry reaction.
This is risk-taking on a scale that would terrify a high-wire artist at Cirque du Soleil. The gamble could destroy Ed Stelmach by next spring, when his party holds its next convention.
This is the same party, remember, that dumped Ralph Klein, the longest-serving and most popular premier in modern Canadian history.
In 1992 these same Tories started an internal campaign against Premier Don Getty. He was gone in little more than a year.
A party that dumps premiers who win majority governments will tear Ed Stelmach apart in a heartbeat.
He has governed on sufferance so far because the amiable Alberta public was ready to give him a chance.
Sensing this, his caucus retreated into watchful, nervous silence while Stelmach took the government down untracked paths.
But if the public rejects the royalty policy, Stelmach will have no fallback authority.
He was third pick to lead a government still packed with Ralph Klein's friends and fans. The royalty battle was his idea alone. Some leadership candidates didn't think it was the big issue Stelmach insists he heard about so often.
On Day One of reaction to the policy, catastrophe was at least averted in the stock market. Hence the deep shudder of relief in the premier's office.
The overall business estimates, from expert companies like FirstEnergy Capital, were quite positive. Nobody is calling for a wholesale flight of capital.
Ominously, though, FirstEnergy also concluded: "Big Oil Wins, Little Oil Loses."
"Economics will be challenged for both natural gas and oil projects . . . You're a technically proficient geoscientist or engineer and want to be an entrepreneur in Alberta? Go somewhere else."
In the small oil and gas sector, a solid core of Tory support, boiling anger was building even before the policy came out.
For weeks I've been in contact with Lee Baker, a sincere and honest small player in the patch.
He concluded Friday that although his deep gas well might survive, "our high-volume project in northern Alberta is hit hard. We will likely cancel a six-well project for the area."
Mark Rennenberg, a Calgary consultant, sent a bitter e-mail to Stelmach Friday.
"I am one of the 'little people' in this province who go to their job everyday and work hard to earn a living," Rennenberg told the premier.
"After today, I will not be supporting the Progressive Conservative party of Alberta. And I doubt that I ever will again." Today Ed Stelmach totters on his own high wire with political safety a misty distance ahead. Mysteriously, he doesn't even seem aware of the long fall below.
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