CWRS Market signal

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Parsley,

Be nice to Charlie... I asked... he answered!

I still don't understand why the CWB is in a panic!

If all these stocks are out here... why were they not put into place a month ago... to meet sales?

[charliep]

Actually agree with Parsley/not taken back.

Also saw an article from Canadian analysts (Informa Economics Winnipeg)
that would indicate the CWB is likely to exceed its export target (a good
thing) and bring the carryover number closer to 7 ( 20 % of supplies for
nice round number.

The point is a open market which is based on market signals appears to
do a better job of bringing supplies into the system to meet customer
requirements/utilize logistics efficiently than single desk with farmer
down loaded regulations including contracting, contract calls, hopefully
elevators with space and finally willingness to deliver even if the previous
3 are all in place.

[charliep]

Actually informa number likely close to 6 mmt or 18 % of supplies.

[pilpilsner]

Bullish news demand is building god I love my blackberry

[parsley]

It was a compliment Tom! charliep made a terrific post!

Play with your blackberry, pily, I believe it's making you kinder and gentler. Pars

[parsley]

btw tinker, you drinkin' the red stuff? You'd better be. Call me. lol Pars

[TOM4CWB]

Parsley,

I will get with it today!

Thanks a bunch!

[dmlfarmer]

I am always amazed how individuals posting on Agriville state a position based on just one piece of data and then ignore everything else.

In this case posters are raving about the efficency of the open market based on Mar 31 statscan numbers and how the open market has been able to move the record crop we produced last year. Yet further digging in those same numbers shows on Mar 31 on farm canola stocks were also up 40.6 percenct over 2008 and peas were up 93 percent over last march 31.

Second, no one talks about the increase in world demand for oilseeds and the fact Canada is a leader in Canola production. Please provide a comparison in the increase world demand/production of canola and of wheat. I believe we are trying to sell wheat into a flat market whereas canola is being bought by a world in which demand is growing for both cooking oils and for bio fuels.

Third, factor in the effect of the global economy. What impact of the credit crunch and the reluctance of buyers to forward price and take delivery had on both crops?

Finally, I put forward the deregulation of the Australian market resulted in an early flood of wheat on the market due to Australian grain companies seeking market share. Agressive selling by the CWB in this time period likely would have reduced prices, and increased shipping costs.
This too must be factored in to any conclusions made as to why there is a greater demand for CWB wheat now, why the CWB needs deliveries now, and if an open market is more efficient.

Production numbers alone do not make a valid argument. All of the above factors, and a host of others must be weighted in before a valid conclusion can be reached

[jensend]

now you've done it! way too many facts for agri-ville. in spite of all the rational information you put together you still have to come to the conclusion that the wheat board is evil and the large grain companies are a famer's best friend.

[TOM4CWB]

dml/jen;

Talk about rants.

Our Canola is all gone...

That central marketing/planning is the answer to our problems... well I think you have missed the mark by a country mile.