Oats is its time coming for a rally?

[classicalliberal]

Ok, so should I believe that there is a shortage of oats? The basis this past year didn't tell me that there was a shortage of oats.

[SASKFARMER3]

No their is no shortage of oats in "Western Canada", But I dont believe their was as much product sold as to keep them running for two years. Other wise why would the elevators and brokers be phoning looking for oats? Yes Product was sold to the Millers but two year supply I highly doubt it.

[classicalliberal]

The local millers will likely be filling short term needs. The local millers don't have the kind of storage that some of the US millers and buyers have.

[mbratrud]

I think the problem with Oats this year which has relly changed the game is the fact that there are Scandinavian Oats flowing into North America. Created by the weakness in the Euro Since October, this on top of Large Canadian supply. I hate to say it but I'm not holding my breath for a major breakthough in the Oats price. At least until we get into the next crop cycle at which time it will take some weather crisis somewhere to spark things up.

[classicalliberal]

I agree, the Scandanavian oats will fill the increase in demand for oats due to the positive movements in the corn/oat spread. Our rail rates to the southern states are too expensive relative to ocean freight and thus the scandinavian oats will come in. They got to buy it where it is cheapest.

[a2farms]

Agree, with a larger carry-out than we've seen in 9-10 years and fairly predictable demand coupled with scandanavian imports...tough to see strength in the oat market.