Bond Market is King

[agstar77]

Reagan also started the downhill slide of the U.S.A.

[ajl]

Contrary to the opinion of the many elbozos present here, it does appear that the US strategy is working at least for now as longer term interest rates are coming down. The US economy has real growth and as the president's tariff machinery gets up and running it very likely that additional cash resources are being used to repurchase long dated bonds. Short term rates have not increased much meaning that they are able to do this with cash resources rather than fresh printing. Of coarse there is still some printing involved but nothing on the scale of the money supply growth used to prop up marxist blarney's canuckistan recently.

[ColevilleH2S]

This AI search thing may have some merit

[errolanderson]

Japan bond yields going parabolic despite emergency attempts by the U.S. Treasury to buy back their debt last week in an attempt to lower U.S. bond yields. Fed now appears likely to raise rates in September. Gold and silver back peddling as a result.

Peter pays Paul strategy with debt no longer working too well for central bankers. Japan appears unable to support the Yen from persistent weakness.

This is a stark warning to stock markets (IMO) . . . .

[Sodbuster]

This AI search thing may have some merit

That number for Canada looked too good to be true, here are my numbers according to AI.
Total government debt, booth levels federal and provincial is 2.4 trillion divided by 41.4 million people gives us a total debt of $57,971 in Canadian pesos or $41739 USD.

[biglentil]

2008 was a "financial crisis". Today: Japan 30Y: +173 bps Japan 10Y: +151 bps UK 30Y: +123 bps US 30Y: +79 bps All compared to August 2008. And here's the fun part: The debt is MUCH bigger now. Higher yields. Bigger debt piles. Higher refinancing costs.The bond market isn't whispering anymore. It's screaming. And somehow we're supposed to believe everything is under control. ????

[Templeboy]

How does the M2 money supply effect bonds? Canada has created more money than All other G7 economies since 2008. Wonder why there is a housing bubble in Toronto and Vancouver ( I would argue almost all cities)? Will this hit Canada comparatively worse than the other G7? Even if we continue in QT, and bond rates continue to rise, are we guaranteed a housing meltdown? Canadians have been investing in housing instead of business, no house is a profit center, just a cost.

The U.S. has been skating by with being the world reserve currency, largely exporting its inflation. If they drag everything back home (manufacturing) inflation will run there, still likely in their best interest.

[errolanderson]

U.S. Treasury is in panic mode right now admitting they may not be able to contain rising rates. The U.S. is buying back their debt as Japan and China dump U.S.treasuries. A Peter pays Paul solution to the debt crisis until it totally implodes. The can is now totally kicked into the ditch . . . .

Japan longterm bond yield at historic highs.

The whole global debt crisis suggests the U.S. Fed may be forced to hike rates in September. A lot of moving parts right now. Trump wants rates to drop, but that is unlikely as debt issuers want more money for their rising risk as a lender.

Meanwhile, the stock market (which is no reflection of the economy) pretends all is well in the land of financial milk ‘n honey. What can go wrong? errolanderson.substack.com

[errolanderson]

Bond yields are absolutely skyrocketing over the past few days.

The Fed will have to hike rates soon, but is it now too late? The U.S. Treasury has intervened recently in a panic attempt to bring yields down, with no luck. Bottomline, mortgage rates are heading higher and the real estate market, well could turn into a mess. It already has in some regions of North America.

Too late to fix, now the fallout (MO) . . . . Has the stock market correction just begun?

[biglentil]

Diesel all time high, copper all time high....dollars rapidly losing purchasing power.