I think there are quite a few differences this time. Ukraine was expected to be rolled over in a few months, with the possibility that grain would not get exported out of the Black Sea, causing speculation of immediate shortages. The Russia/Ukraine war rages on and grains still export, wasn't near the supply shock expected.
There is no grain grown or exported out of the Persian Gulf (fert and fuel) are a much slower to cause a food stuffs shortage. Fuel goes up, fert goes up, (its the profiteering cycle right now) rationing begins, crops will get seeded. Guys will cut back a bit, grow some more pulses, we might end up with a decline in world grain inventory. There won't be too much movement unless this thing runs out a couple more months. If we cut world S&D of grains by 10% what happens?? how many days of supply are there of wheat in the world?? I hate being the contrarian, but I have seen this game before. I think we have more of a chance of a 2008 banking meltdown or credit crisis than we do of having 1000/t canola.
This is going to be a tough year. Farmers might need to take advances to buy overpriced fertilizer with no offsetting futures price to lock in a profit (Crop Ins. sure doesn't.)
There is no grain grown or exported out of the Persian Gulf (fert and fuel) are a much slower to cause a food stuffs shortage. Fuel goes up, fert goes up, (its the profiteering cycle right now) rationing begins, crops will get seeded. Guys will cut back a bit, grow some more pulses, we might end up with a decline in world grain inventory. There won't be too much movement unless this thing runs out a couple more months. If we cut world S&D of grains by 10% what happens?? how many days of supply are there of wheat in the world?? I hate being the contrarian, but I have seen this game before. I think we have more of a chance of a 2008 banking meltdown or credit crisis than we do of having 1000/t canola.
This is going to be a tough year. Farmers might need to take advances to buy overpriced fertilizer with no offsetting futures price to lock in a profit (Crop Ins. sure doesn't.)
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