Silver

[foragefarmer]

Some days I like to share results with her and some days like today, not so much.

How about you?

She gambled once and took a huge hit, and now has to live with that result the rest of her life.

When I pick a winner, I buy and hold, that's all she needs to know.

[shtferbrains]

Here many friends and relates got in on the Diamond mine.
Every time they brought in a bigger exploration drill they sold more shares.
Rode it up and back down till it was worth about zero.
Lesson for most was you loose all your money in the stock market.
Jr miners or Cameco, all the
same.
But the financial advisor with the expensive suit and Beamer is unquestionably a wizard.

[shtferbrains]

There is a 10% per day circuit breaker in the Comex but apparently it only applies on up days. When the banks need to close out their shorts on the last trading day of the month a 35% smash is totally fine.

Kind of long, but does this explain why it had no bottom?
Are Fridays at the end of the month risky for any commodity that is volatile like the peak canola?
Errol?


The morning opened with a clear regime shift.
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as a hard-money hawk. At the same time, a U.S. government shutdown was averted at the last minute.

Gold and silver had effectively been propping each other up over the past week. Silver looked vulnerable, but gold’s parabolic move prevented a breakdown, resulting instead in a double-top structure.

This setup has historical precedent, most notably in 2006 and 2011.

Quietly behind the scenes topping macro news added up: Greenland resolution, Tariff step back, FED chair hawk(ish)...

As the macro narrative flipped, the “chaos premium” and “debasement trade” evaporated almost instantly. This came on top of rising margin requirements and billions of dollars in call options being offered throughout the week.

With today being Friday, those call positions became trapped. Market makers were then able to delta-hedge back toward neutral by selling underlying shares.

That’s when the dominoes began to accelerate.

As silver broke below key whole-number levels, where the largest call strikes were concentrated, selling pressure increased exponentially. Billions of dollars in call options rapidly went to zero.

The selloff intensified into the 1:30 PM window, driven in part by the $AGQ rebalancing mechanism.

As a 2x leveraged ETF, AGQ must rebalance daily to maintain its leverage ratio. A 10% drop in silver leaves the fund over-leveraged, forcing it to sell futures into weakness.

The “Kill Zone” (1:00–1:25 PM ET) is where the mechanics turned brutal:

1:00 PM: Order cut-off

1:25 PM: NAV calculation

HFTs and authorized participants knew AGQ would be forced to unload significant volume. They front-ran the 1:25 PM window, stripping remaining liquidity.

Silver didn’t merely decline, it gapped through multiple support levels. Selling pressure peaked precisely at the 1:25 PM NAV print. Once the mechanical rebalancing was complete, price finally found a floor.

[sumdumguy]

Silver is notorious for making big winners into big losers, been there - done that with the Hunt Bros. Grrrr. all that glitters is not gold.

[wrongway]

markets always move to where it can do the most damage...

[wheatking16]

The market will inflict as much pain on as many people as possible.

In other news, look for a rally in Bitcoin and silver this week.

[fjlip]

Markets all going to SHYT! Gold off 14% from high, $4707/ounce atm.

Thank god Cocoa and coffee crashing!

[TASFarms]

One bank in Chicago down. Will there be more

[sumdumguy]

The shorts are the winners this week.

[biglentil]

The shorts are the winners this week.

Shorts having a religious experience today.