Silver

[shtferbrains]

So gold will continue to go up as long as Trump keep making proclamations from the throne in the middle of the night?
He's had a lot going on the last few weeks.
Constant turmoil.
Things like Gaza and Ukraine hardly can get a mention.

Carney says he's boring.

[errolanderson]

One thing I learnt in my commodity trading career, parabolic rallies NEVER HOLD . . . .

Parabolic rallies like the silver market right now has taken prices to illogical, irrational, and unreasonable levels defying all technical and fundamental analysis. I'm stirring the pot here, but the recipe is ripe for an 'ugly precious metal selloff' sometime soon.

For those wanting to protect these enormous gains without liquidation or margin call risk, consider scaling in silver put options or put option bear spreads. Don't touch the futures. Volatility is far too high. A lesson that crypto traders have recently gone through.

My two-bites . . . .

Errol's Commodity Wire

[shtferbrains]

If the one day panic comes with a rush for the exit, there's no buyers for your position and you can't get out on the way down?

Is the bear ETF the same as the put option for the bear spread when it breaks?
Would it be more accessible and give similar results.

NUGT etf with DUST etf for the ride down in risk mitigation.
Expect some pain in the transition but not squeezed?

[shtferbrains]

Silver @ $114 in early trade.
Gold blows through $5000to near $5100

To the moon?

[jamesb]

The silver thing is a fun one to watch. For me I have not dabbled into paper silver other than what some mutual funds may have. I have over the years bought new minted bullion and pre 67 CDN or pre 65 US coins. There is something to be said to have the physical product. I have read that there is guys selling struggling to get current melt from many "normal" buyers as with the current volatility most don't want to be holding metals if there is a big correction. A correction will come at some point IMO. Many of the silver nuts think there is no way silver will drop but as a farmer we all know what goes up must come down. Over a long period silver has been a good investment but there easily can be a lot of years of flat inflation

[errolanderson]

Global investors are showing a massive shift away and loss-of-confidence in the USD. Loonie on-the-way to 75 cents?

[shtferbrains]

Central bank reserves are buying tons.
The more they buy, the more what they have is worth?

Scale on the left is $ trillions in reserve.

[errolanderson]

Bank of Canada and Fed projections that a recession will be avoided in 2026 is a joke. Canada’s recession is deepening as is the American recession. The record breaking stock market has nothing to do with the actual economy. It’s due to money printing as the Fed is panicked to buoy liquidity in the system. Some ATM machines could actually run out of money?

Japan’s bond market is now broken. This was the global supplier of liquidity. It’s called the Yen Carry trade. The U.S. and Canada will face accelerating bankruptcies in both retail and restaurants this year. Consumers tapped out of disposable cash. Layoffs intensify.

Asset deflation may be significant. The amazing panicked buying of gold and silver astonishing, but cash is also king. Some assets may be bought for pennies on the dollar when stock markets cave-in. The likes of Buffet have been stockpiling cash for some time now.

The fallout of 2026 has just begun (IMO). Debt has come home to roost for governments. And the free money supported by the cheap Yen at 0% interest rates no longer exists. Japan bond yields have surged to record highs recently. This is a game-changer for global economics.

[shtferbrains]

"The amazing panicked buying of gold and silver astonishing"

I don't know if it can always be described as panic buying, as it has been a constant rise in value since at least last spring.
Financial Advisors advocate for more diversified funds to minimize risk.
But the risk here was you missed the opportunity of a lifetime to build generational wealth.
Certainly it's not over till the fat lady sings.
Risk goes up that it will break hard.
But rewards?

DYOD

[agstar77]

That's how the debt will be paid. Devalued currency. Trump is a bankruptcy specialist. Great at deal making.