I agree the initial payment can work for a farmer and against. The issue is the farmer is not in control of deliveries because of contract acceptance, contract calls and elevator capacity/logistics issues.
The other issues are how much risk is passed back to the farmer to protect the overall pools. Farmers should be able to lock in spreads to protect their risk/price based on the market conditions.
How would the CWB manage their risk? I have the CWB match farmer contracts up against sales. A domestic miller uses daily spreads - not averages during the year - when they buy from the CWB. They likely (haven't been in the CWB for a while) can forward book spreads. I would match off sales spreads to farmer spreads to manage CWB risk.
I note your example of an extreme change in spreads. What would be wrong with this? I note similar changes have happened in a very unplanned manner with changes in initial payments. There is more likely to be a gradual change (not overnight) in a market based process where the current initial payment based spreads occurs all at once based on simply luck of the draw. Managing spread risk should be a CWB responsibility - not additional price uncertainty passed onto the farmer.
An open market will force the CWB to much innovative in they handle spreads. In this case, they will have to manage their spread risk by matching against sales.
The other issues are how much risk is passed back to the farmer to protect the overall pools. Farmers should be able to lock in spreads to protect their risk/price based on the market conditions.
How would the CWB manage their risk? I have the CWB match farmer contracts up against sales. A domestic miller uses daily spreads - not averages during the year - when they buy from the CWB. They likely (haven't been in the CWB for a while) can forward book spreads. I would match off sales spreads to farmer spreads to manage CWB risk.
I note your example of an extreme change in spreads. What would be wrong with this? I note similar changes have happened in a very unplanned manner with changes in initial payments. There is more likely to be a gradual change (not overnight) in a market based process where the current initial payment based spreads occurs all at once based on simply luck of the draw. Managing spread risk should be a CWB responsibility - not additional price uncertainty passed onto the farmer.
An open market will force the CWB to much innovative in they handle spreads. In this case, they will have to manage their spread risk by matching against sales.
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