Selling land for earlier retirement but how to hold cash?

[goalieguy847]

If land in your area trades for 1.25 million/qrtr then yep!

look at you! Doin math!

[ajl]

Fairly nice quarter sold for 720K in this part of Alberta today so 2.5 Million capital gain will require close to 4 quarters after closing costs.

[Old Cowzilla]

Fairly nice quarter sold for 720K in this part of Alberta today so 2.5 Million capital gain will require close to 4 quarters after closing costs.

Hell that's only a couple hundred 5 weight steer calves look out canola growers there's a new sheriff in town.

[Grahamp]

Another thought would be to sell where you are (I really agree with your concern if supply management is driving land prices in your area) and buy land in Saskatchewan or Manitoba that’s $3-$4000 per acre, or even a farm in both places if you want to spread your risk. I’d say your downside is less, you’ll pick up 2.5-3% returns, so similar or maybe better than bank/GIC returns and still have what is hopefully a good inflation hedge. I’d avoid gold and silver they are negative yield so you’re relying 100 % on capital gains. Gold is a long term inflation hedge (over 20+ years) but actually a terrible short term inflation hedge (5-10 years). Stock Market is a tougher call, great investment if you’ve been putting money in the last 30 years, but to sell land and invest today would make me very nervous at these very high tech heavy indexes.

[TechAnalyst]

If a person is worried about inflation and has unneeded cash and/or inventory that can sit for an extended time should they buy gold/silver near all time highs, buy stocks, go long the futures market with the plan on rolling months for a few years, or keep undervalued grain in the bin?
This is after maxing TFSA, paying bills, prebuying inputs etc.
With land trading at 12,000/acre and Canola grossing $720/acre I am? looking at downsizing 7 years earlier than I had planned. Anybody remember the 80's when land crashed for 15 years? I don't see much upside in the market and lots of downside unless inflation kicks in hard.
I could even rent potato ground and grain farm it if I want to keep my acres the same (12000/ac @ 4% return is 480 so I could pay 250/acre rent and still have return on dividend stocks)

Congratulations Ron, and wise thinking. Considering your options listed, I would be afraid to venture into gold/silver as a hedge against inflation given the recent top of almost $4,400/ounce after starting the year at just $2,641. The $300/ounce range Tuesday shows how emotionally charged things are currently.

Stocks are really starting to show signs of anxiety as pointed out in a post I put out yesterday (see below). Besides the risk there with equities at record highs currently, they would be a poor hedge against inflation with it likely resulting in higher interest rates and lower stocks (eventually).

That leaves you with the best option in my opinion, of holding onto undervalued grains and oilseeds looking for some of these relationships with other assets to realign. If you go the route of buying futures and rolling as contracts approach expiry, just keep in mind your base price will keep sneaking up as the carry charges from one month to the next accumulate. That is, deferred months should be higher by at least a portion of the cost of carry. When you roll, you enter the next contract at a higher price. Still a good option given how low some of these grains are. For example, even though everyone hates wheat right now, how much lower can it go (practically speaking) below $5/bushel yet Chicago was over $12.75/bushel in early 2022. This approach also lets you choose which grain or oilseed (or basket of) you prefer to own.

For grain in the bin, I would highly recommend being patient with it as long as it can stay in good condition. Then if grains rally and/or gold/silver prices retreat to a more normal relationship between the two, ag commodities can be sold with some moved into metals.

Here is the post I mentioned...

Canada Markets

Will Similarities to the Housing Crisis and Dot-Com Bubble Support Commodities?


10/22/2025 | 11:27 AM CDT

By Mitch Miller, DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst

Amid the data void that markets are experiencing thanks to the government shutdown, it seems like an ideal time to update readers on the big picture that money managers are dealing with. And spoiler alert, it may very well support commodity markets as it did in early 2022.

There are a growing number of reasons to be concerned about the similarities in financial market conditions now that were present in previous market breakdowns. Specifically, the slack lending standards that led to the housing market collapse in 2007-08, which almost brought down the banking industry, along with a number of individual firms. Then there are the concerning similarities between the dot-com bubble and the AI and crypto craze that's inflated stocks to levels that are not only hard to justify but are also showing signs of danger.

Last week, the U.S. regional banking sector was hit by earnings downgrades tied to losses on commercial and industrial loans amid lawsuits alleging customer loan fraud. The lack of security actually being in place attracted attention, given the slack lending standards that have been reported as banks chase better yields now that the U.S. two-year note has fallen back below 3.5%. Just like the primary cause of the financial meltdown in 2007-08. The regional bank index (KRX) has declined 4.8% this year compared to the index tracking large banks (BKX), which has gained 15.9% so far. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stirred the pot when he brought up the cockroach theory, suggesting that there is never just one cockroach, and that the trouble almost certainly highlights an underlying issue caused by the "covenant lite" lending standards (in this case).

Then there's the growing debate, both in frequency and alarm, over how similar the AI bubble is to the dot-com bubble, and concerns over a similar outcome. Besides the potential for overpromising and underdelivering, practical uses for AI are a concern due to the lack of reliable accuracy. Likely more important, the extreme energy requirements are gaining attention as electricity customers of every sort are seeing their bills rise thanks to the demands on the system. When data centers are responsible for the Three Mile Island nuclear plant reopening (targeting 2028) after being mothballed since the accident in 1979, you know energy demands are a problem. On top of the significant energy needs for bitcoin mining, there is a push for electric vehicle use. On a side note, maybe that is contributing to the Trump administration's push to end EV support?

For a more specific example, chip maker NVIDIA has been the poster child for the AI boom, with it going from under $12/share in late 2022 to almost $190/share three weeks ago. That resulted in a market capitalization of $4.45 trillion currently and contributed significantly to gains in the stock market indexes, directly or indirectly. Yet the CEO, Jensen Huang, on Tuesday expressed his dismay that NVIDIA went from having 95% of the market share in China to 0% (due to trade restrictions imposed by the White House), stating, "I can't imagine any policymaker thinking that that's a good idea." Such developments may inspire profit-taking following such a sharp gain in value over three years.

At the same time, grain, oilseed and energy prices have been under significant pressure since the tops seen in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as politicians from both sides of the aisle promised to bring prices for food and fuel down for consumers. The political incentive was obviously to help with being elected, but the budgetary incentive is to be able to reduce interest rates as inflation comes down, saving the government a large fortune in interest costs along the way. It's hard to argue with the reasoning, unless you're the one who is being hurt along the way (by lower commodity prices).

The one thing that low prices usually do is cure low prices. With increasing biofuel production use both in the U.S. and, more importantly, in South America, demand increases would likely be stressing available supplies if not for the trade war with China and the exceptional weather seen in many production areas over the past few years. Even then, it may yet, as anecdotal reports of disappointing yields in the U.S. (thanks to late-season drought and disease pressure) suggest much lower supplies may be the outcome. And a developing La Nina weather pattern could yet interfere with expected record production for the 2025-26 South American crop (that's just in the process of being planted).

Strong markets are highlighted by their ability to focus on bullish developments while ignoring bearish ones, and vice versa for weak markets. Should money managers decide it's time to take profits out of the equity markets and add to their commodity exposure at a time when inflation may return (should interest rates fall in support of a weakening labor market while inflation is left unchecked), they will surely find fundamental justification for the move. And with the S&P index at 64 times the value of the Bloomberg commodity index, they won't have to look far for incentives.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be followed on social platform X @mgreymiller

This is in reference to the chart...

Excessively overbought stocks compared to the commodities that are used to help generate that wealth are on display here. With the S&P index 64 times the Bloomberg Commodity Index compared to 5.35 in 2008 (amid similar concerns), are we about to see a flow of funds from equity to commodity markets? (DTN ProphetX chart)?