Canola Rally

[Hamloc]

I would think canola yields in western Canada will be 30% lower than last estimate 2-3 weeks ago, and dropping daily now

June 1, I was quite excited, more moisture in May than in many years. Canola was just germinated, things looked good. July 1. June was quite dry but it had rained on the 27th June, crop was late but looked good. Today, not optimistic. Glad I didn’t pre-sell a bushel. Canola getting close to being done flowering. On light land canola is frozen in time and wilting to nothing. Early seeded canola will yield ok. July 1 I was hoping for mid 50’s, now I think 30-40 but might still be too optimistic!

[furrowtickler]

Ya we went fro a 50 bushel canola crop last year to 20 in 2-3 weeks in June to first week in July .
not fun too watch

[AlbertaFarmer5]

We made a road trip around central AB, east of Edmonton, then North as far as the farmland goes, then into the Peace country, north to Peace River, west, then south into Grande Prairie, detoured east for a while, then west all the way to Fort St. John.

There was some excellent looking canola between Falher and Peace River. And that is about the extent of the good news. Other places looked like decent stands, but when you look up close, they are full of aborted pods, blanks, deformed etc. Most was done flowering. Thin, short, and patches of the wrong color were wide spread.

And this seems to apply to areas that had excess moisture until recently too.

A very common theme was fields with large areas of drown outs, and burn outs.

I thought we were going through what would be some of the better crop areas, given the earlier rains.

Maybe not a disaster like some areas were in 2021, or 2023, but far below expectations.

A few days ago I still thought we had full potential on our farm, even on our later frozen canola, but that is gone now.

[makar]

Basis going up as fast as markets.