Wheat

[cropgrower]

They allways have huge crops too !

[fjlip]

Wheat made our farm more money the last three years it’s not even funny. Was a good run as wheat is fun to grow and cheaper to grow than canola. But like all good things it’s market is ****ed up.

now farmers in the USA are saying it’s Biden and Ukraine wheat flooding Europe etc. all farmers are pissed in Europe so maybe.

plus how well would western canada be at growing wheat if a war was going on.

something doesn’t add up.

Doesn't add up is right...

In response to EU farmer protests, the proposal also introduces an "emergency brake" for poultry, eggs and sugar, meaning tariffs would be allowed if imports exceed the average levels of 2022 and 2023. Import duties and quotas on Ukrainian farm were lifted in 2022 after Russia's invasion, which disrupted shipments via the Black Sea. Farmers have voiced anger over what they say is unfair competition from cheaper Ukrainian imports. The vote clears the last effective hurdle. Lawmakers had proposed several amendments, which were rejected, such as to add honey and cereals to the list of products subject to the brake and to include 2021 as a reference year. This was before Russia's invasion, when Ukrainian exports to the EU were curbed by tariffs and quotas.


Polish farmers protest again, now in Warsaw - Polish farmers are holding an announced mass protest in Warsaw on March 6, RBC-Ukraine reports. According to reports from Polish mass media, organizers of the protest anticipate up to 100,000 participants joining the demonstration. The protesters began their action by picketing the office of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Their demands remain consistent: a cessation of the "green course" advocated by the European Commission and a prohibition on the "uncontrolled" importation of agricultural goods. The participants of the action wanted to drive to the center of the Polish capital on tractors, but barriers were set up on the outskirts of the city. So only a few units of equipment were able to reach the center of Warsaw. Meanwhile, reports indicate several confrontations between protesters and law enforcement officers have already occurred.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

There are a lot of amazing marketers out there always hitting tops for selling and always catching the bottom of the fertilizer valley.

Forage is one of those amazing marketers. Doesn't even grow grain, but with the benefit of hindsight, told us how he had saved all of his wheat from decades past and sold it all at the highs of 2022. A true legend in his own mind.

[foragefarmer]

Forage is one of those amazing marketers. Doesn't even grow grain, but with the benefit of hindsight, told us how he had saved all of his wheat from decades past and sold it all at the highs of 2022. A true legend in his own mind.

I'll just take that as a No to the simple question I asked.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'll just take that as a No to the simple question I asked.

I appreciate your concern for my marketing.
I will stick with my usual strategy, which is to sell on spring summer rallies. It pays off most years. Maybe this is the year I give it all back. Let's revisit it in the fall.

I know I'll never compare to your marketing brilliance. Or to put it another way, the first liar doesn't stand a chance.

[fjlip]

Summary of their situation, good info

Protesting EU Green Shyt!

[errolanderson]

Global wheat fallout is tied by massive Russia wheat crop being discounted into export market. This has triggered a price war between EU and Russia. MATIF Paris wheat in steady downtrend. Russia needs hard currency incoming. Discounts everywhere.

Secondly, China’s deflation is intensifying. This is bearish global commodities.OPEC’s losing battle . . . .

[email]errolanderson@substack.com[/email]

[SASKFARMER]

Ok, so Russia needs money because Biden won't stop the BS war and Americans are getting screwed on wheat?

[foragefarmer]

Ok, so Russia needs money because Biden won't stop the BS war and Americans are getting screwed on wheat?

Did you venture out of Mar-a-Lago and get to much sun?

[flea beetle]

Geeze, some people sure don’t like to see others get ahead. Jealousy is a crippling emotion.

[TSIPP]

If anyone supports a US led proxy war with Russia they must be nuts.

[TSIPP]

Geeze, some people sure don’t like to see others get ahead. Jealousy is a crippling emotion.

I’ll admit that I’m kinda jealous of the grain farmers, ranching has been mostly an unreal letdown in the profits margin, 3 or 4 decent years out of 25 kinda sucks but I’m way too stupid or stubborn to change.

[fjlip]

Not bearish...

Exactly two years ago, Chicago wheat futures stamped all-time highs after top exporter Russia invaded fellow supplier Ukraine, immediately throwing almost 30% of global wheat exports into question. But on Wednesday, CBOT wheat slipped to its lowest level since August 2020, joining the ranks with corn and soybeans, which last week also notched their lowest prices since late 2020. In theory, global supply outlooks for wheat are not necessarily bearish, especially compared with those for corn and soybeans, though this wheat storyline clearly remains repetitive and non-threatening in traders’ eyes.

U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates suggest 2023-24 global wheat ending stocks will decline for a fourth consecutive season to eight-year lows. Eleven-year lows are on the docket when excluding serial grain stockpiler China from the mix. Isolating major wheat exporters, stocks-to-use, a measure of supply versus demand, is seen at a three-year low of 14.8% in 2023-24, down from 15.9% in the prior season. The recent 10-year average is about 16.9%. For corn and soybeans, global stocks-to-use is pegged at 23% and 21%, respectively, marking four- and five-year highs. The latest prognosis for wheat exporters is not much different from what USDA had projected for 2021-22 back in March 2022, roughly two weeks after the Russian invasion. Predicted stocks-to-use of 14% at that time was down from 15% estimated for 2020-21 and scheduled to reach 14-year lows. Instead, wheat exporter stocks-to-use in 2021-22 rose on the year to 15.4%, as skyrocketing prices likely choked off some demand in the second half of that year. Stocks-to-use rose again in the following year based on an unexpectedly solid Ukrainian export effort and a huge surge in Russian supplies. This expanding trend is already happening for 2023-24, as the 14.8% stocks-to-use among major exporters is up from 13.5% predicted last September, for example.

[furrowtickler]

How much more cheap wheat can Russia dump on the market if they have been doing so for several months?
sooner or later they will need to keep some sticks at home to keep their war fed no ?

[Sodbuster]

Hoping we turned the corner, first Friday in a while that the board ended green as we head into the weekend. Wheat and canola hopefully have found a bottom and maybe a last push soon to buy some acres. Not sure what moisture concerns are in western Canada at this time but most of us were dry coming into winter.