Wheat

[WiltonRanch]

I would assume India as does Africa imports most from Russia and the FSU so far. Another thing is Russias production can drop as fast as it goes up. It has become more stable as they’ve gotten their shit together but dryland farming in a continental climate as we know isn’t without risks. As well, unintended consequences from non ag related sanctions will have some effect going forward.

[furrowtickler]

I would assume India as does Africa imports most from Russia and the FSU so far. Another thing is Russias production can drop as fast as it goes up. It has become more stable as they’ve gotten their shit together but dryland farming in a continental climate as we know isn’t without risks. As well, unintended consequences from non ag related sanctions will have some effect going forward.

Very true

[furrowtickler]

While we are all fixated on what's happening in the Black Sea region, and it's effect on our wheat markets. Keep in mind that India is the world's second largest wheat producer. Second only to china. Producing more than three times as much as Canada does. Formerly an exporter, possibly becoming a permanent importer if current trends hold.
India produces as much wheat as all of Russia and Ukraine combined.
And their stocks keep declining.
I expect this is going to be the demand story going forward.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...rd-state-sale/

Interesting find , thank you

[foragefarmer]

"Ukraine’s grain union projects their 2024 wheat crop will be the smallest in 12 years at 20 MMT. That’s down about 14.5% from last year, with constraints on land area and labor."

So either Putin steals it from the Ukrainians or prevents them from sowing it.

Stalin 2.0

[fjlip]

IGC, less wheat carryover...I saved as jpg

[fjlip]

US losing share, China cancelling shipments, such nice trust worthy traders...

[errolanderson]

Wheat news now so bearish, a shortcovering rally could ignite at any moment . . . .

Corn meekly trading in a higher trading window. Bottom in?

[flea beetle]

How would bearish news trigger a short covering rally?

[dave4441]

Putin needs funds to support his war, Black Sea wheat prices being heavily discounted.

Many on Agriville posted Putin was provoked and defended his cause with old maps, Nazis claims, NATO, and other B.S.

Now it's your turn to feel the negative effect of Putin's unjustified war with Ukraine , in your pocketbook.

They will do same this fall with an aggressive increase in green lentil acreage. Couple years ago they exported 100,000 MT and this current crop year they have exported 300,000 MT. That number will grow this fall.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How would bearish news trigger a short covering rally?

I think peak bearish news would be the theory.
At some point they run out of greater suckers to sell to..