pricing 2024 crop

[dave4441]

I'm officially something like 90+% sold as of about 15 minutes ago.

I *wanted* $13 for my CWAD, but the market just isnt going to go there IMHO.

I *wanted* $12 for my peas, and managed to catch the 1 week india blip and dropped them for $13.50.

You win some... you lose some...

Our COP is LOW, but then our top end is embarrassingly low compared to prime dry-country.

general direct expenses here (fert/chem/seed/insurance) are in the $150-175 neighborhood. Add rent/payment, repairs, machinery payments, fuel, interest(a far larger expense than before), etc. $250/ac gross is pathetic in most areas, but honestly considered a "job well done" here. It wasnt so long ago, when $150-175 would do that.

I *do not* see good marketing opportunities in the immediate future. El-nino is fading which likely means reduced drought pressure in US heartland, there are a couple of systems prog'd to dump significant moisture into the I-states, the $CDN, although it should be a peso, seems likely to increase relative to the $US in the near term... I've seen enough "bearish" sentiment that I'm tapping out. I can see a path to commodity inflation perhaps in june/july, but bills being dated what they are, demand payment from poors like me far earlier than I can wait for markets to bounce upward.

There could be a million MT plus of durum carried into next crop year. You have likely made the right decision.

[blackpowder]

Guess I'm a schlub. Likely always have been.

An uninformed production concern in July led to lower than normal selling in the usual seasonal peak.
Specialties all gone off combine and half the wheat.
Problem with hanging my hat on next springs high is that it could still be $2 lower than last year. So it's very possible $10 last October might still be unavailable in June.
Will still sell half of 24s then either way.
Road trips this season found no land under $1M / quarter.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

USDA is still at 158.5. They can't both be right.

Aprosoja Brasil estimates 2023/2024 harvest at 135 million tons
Producers who participated in a meeting of the Soy Sector Chamber, on January 11th, in Brasília, expressed their concern about the losses resulting from climate instability in all regions of the country.
Based on data collected by the 15 State Aprosojas, the 2023/2024 harvest already reaches 135 million tons, at most, numbers well below what has been released by public and private institutions and companies in Brazil and abroad.
These data take into account the water stress to which the Central-West states were subjected, such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, and the excess rainfall in areas of these same states, making grain harvesting work difficult and leading to even greater losses to producers.
There are also strong reports from producers in the south of the country, mainly in the state of Paraná, who suffered from excessive rainfall at the beginning of planting and are now facing a lack of rain in areas where soybeans are in the reproductive phase, which compromises the crop productivity. Due to all this instability, Aprosoja Brasil projects an even lower number, if the climate does not change.
According to the directors of Aprosoja Brasil, the publication of data on the market about the harvest that do not match reality has caused a downward trend in prices. Producers, in addition to having reduced productivity, have to deal with prices that are incompatible with reality, causing losses to soybean growers and producing regions.
“When the producer receives a value below what his product is really worth, and which does not cover the cost of production, the loss is not only borne by the producers, but is shared in the form of a reduction in economic activity in the producing regions, which means a reduction in jobs and investment opportunities. In addition to causing producers throughout Brazil to leave their activity, it reduces revenue from municipalities, the state and the Federal Government”, warns Aprosoja Brasil.
Given this situation, the entity recommends that producers take extreme caution and readjust their businesses in the face of this harsh reality. And to the commercial partners who finance the harvest, Aprosoja Brasil asks them to demonstrate the value of the partnership in the face of the producers' eventual inability to honor all scheduled commitments.
Aprosoja Brazil

[Old Cowzilla]

Given that January is a crappy trading month seems quite a few things happening to make things bullish . Anybody know the currant palm oil situation ?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Given that January is a crappy trading month seems quite a few things happening to make things bullish . Anybody know the currant palm oil situation ?

1 month palm oil chart. Up nearly everyday since New years

[cropgrower]

Anybody else like me with almost none on 2023 crop sold yet ? just sold a small load at harvest time that we ran out of bin space for , looks like that will be my best price now !

[jdg364]

Right or wrong
45% sold on wht
50% sold on cnl
barley / peas / oats gone

I feel like I missed the signs on the dropping cnl market but the wht has surprised me.. I thought we’d have a better/longer pricing timeframe of +$10. The cnl can sit, I don’t know how selling $13.xx cnl makes any profit so it might as well stay where it is (in my bin).

[Old Cowzilla]

Employee's at crushing plants shouldn't have any trouble getting summer holidays. Ending stocks under 2 mil predicted for canola. Can drive across any field now with a car and heaven forbid April showers a no show.

[Templeboy]

Employee's at crushing plants shouldn't have any trouble getting summer holidays. Ending stocks under 2 mil predicted for canola. Can drive across any field now with a car and heaven forbid April showers a no show.

Export pace so slow, they might be up to their necks in seed. Sure would be nice to have a reporting system.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Anybody know the currant palm oil situation ?

Up 2% again overnight.

Malaysian palm oil futures jumped almost 2% to touch MYR 3,900 per tonne after retreating to as low as MYR 3,805 in the prior session, supported by firmer crude oil prices and bets of lower production during Q1 of 2024 due to adverse weather. Palm oil production for Jan. 1-15 in Malaysia is predicted to tumble around 17% from the prior month, Reuters said. Also, top buyer India to set import duties on edible oils until March 2025.